Peak Oil and Some Alternative Energy Investments
Peak Oil is for real and it is already upon us. The phrase "Peak Oil" now frequently occurs in main stream medias nowadays, as the oil prices are skyrocketing. As I drive my Prius to work each day, I noticed the gasoline price is going up 5 or 10 cents a day recently. Who wouldn't notice the skyrocketing gasoline price? 99.99% of the people have noticed the rise in gasoline prices. But I believe less than 0.01% of the people truly understand peak oil, a very simple yet hard to accept concept.
I believe there are less people who can understand Peak Oil Theory than those who can understand Einstein's Relativity Theory. Einstein published his theory in 1905. By 1912, it was already well accepted and his name became a household name. In 1956, King Hubert published his Peak Oil Theory, a pure and simple mathematical derivative of any presumed limited natural resource. Today, half a century has passed, and the point of Peak Oil has even just passed, but Hubert Peak is still treated as a crackpot theory by some of the best educated people on this planet.
As for the Malthus Theory, an even simpler and purer mathematical derivative. It's been two centuries but it is still being treated as an absolute hoax. I wish to find another occasion to talk about Malthus, since the topic is just too emotionally stressful, especially when it is put together with Peak Oil.
Humans are incredibly stupid animals when rational thinking is jeopardized by emotional rejections, especially by emotions of greed, fear and utter disbelief when a vast amount of interest is involved. Warren Buffett had long discovered that Mr. Market could never think straight or rationally. Mr. Market either over-valuates something, or under-valuates it. He keeps oscillating between the two extremes. That's the basis why it is possible for an investor to overcome the emotions and make profit by defeating the irrational Mr. Market.
All of the world's biggest giant oil fields are in steep decline: No. 1 Guawar in Saudi Arabia; No. 2 Mexico's Cantarell; No. 3 in Kuwait; and No. 4 China's Da Qing. Shortly after the crackdown of the Gang of Four, which ended the Cultural Revolution, a period of ten years of utter political craziness that turned the mentality of one billion people upside down, I remember that China vowed to discover ten more giant oil fields each as big as Da Qing. No one ever thought about the question how we could find ten Da Qings, if there was none exist in nature for people to discover in the first place?
Again when the population thinks as a group, the intelligence level is extremely and hopelessly low. We as individuals may think we are smart, but as a group, we are often incredibly foolish.
The depletion at Cantarell is shocking even to experts who know about it. Daily production dropped to 1.07M barrels recently. A year ago it was 1.57M. Two years ago it was 2M barrels a day. People in denial of Peak Oil, those so-called economists who recently predict oil to fall back to below $100 a barrel really need to take a closer look at Cantarell and the depletion at other giant oil fields.
When supply can not be raised, there must be demand destruction to forcefully reduce demand down to the level of available supply. I don't see oil demand destruction at current price level yet. If people can spend $20K to buy a new car, they can surely afford $4 a gallon or even $10 a gallon to use that car, or even $20 a gallon. On a side note, there is an interesting article about the Bakken Formation.
But people surely are responding and trying to cope with the reality of ever increasing gasoline prices. According to General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Toyota (TM), sales of fuel efficient cars are booming, while those of big trucks and SUVs are falling. I am seeing more and more Toyota Prius on the roads. If you are about to buy a new car lately, I urge you to buy a Prius now, before the big wave. At a 66.6 MPG fuel efficiency that I personally achieved, Prius is the best of the breed. The production is constrained by raw material supply.
Global annual automobile sales are 70M, but Toyota only recently reached a cumulative one million sales of its Prius. Hybrid vehicles like Prius can never become mainstream commuting vehicles due to the global resource constraint.
That brings me to the topics of hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cells, battery technologies, and a few of my favorite base metals. Hybrid cars like Prius use a 50 kilogram battery package called NiMH to store and re-use energy. Toyota is also developing a plug-in hybrid, which may require a battery package almost ten times as big for practical range of driving without gasoline.
I estimate 60% of the mass of NiMH is the metal nickel. That's 30 kilograms of nickel per Prius. One million such cars would require 30,000 tons of nickel, whose global annual supply is roughly 1.5M tons. So Prius hybrid batteries along consume 2% of global nickel production. 20% if annual hybrid sales reach 10M. Much higher when plug-in hybrids go to mass production soon. I will be the first to buy a plug-in hybrid. We are talking about the equivalent of 50 cents per gallon gasoline if we can re-charge from the electric grid.
Toyota, Nissan and Volkswagen all announced recently they are buiding new factories to produce NiMH battery packs for hybrid vehicles. All these of course will translate into greater demand of nickel. That's bullish for my favorite mining stock, North American Palladium (PAL), which produces nickel as a main metal byproduct. The battery fever of auto makers even caught the attention of Jack Lifton at Resource Investors. Read what he had to say.
The coal stock James Rive Coal Company (JRCC) has been super bullish! I mentioned JRCC before and recommended it. I had watched it since early 2007 and when it dropped to $4 I loaded up big. But I sold it right before it reached $8 a share, because I thought a correction might come. The correction came two days after I sold, and brought it all the way down to $4.76, almost erased the gain completely. But I wasn't in a position to buy at that time, I never bought back. I thought those folks who did not sell at $8 and saw it drop back to $4-ish must have felt the hurt. Today, JRCC reached $40+, a 3 year target that I gave JRCC. I am the one who hurts. Lesson learned!
I don't understand it! JRCC released a Q1, 2008 loss much worse than expected and worse than last year, due to higher cost, and the share price rallied from $22 to $40 after the bad news. All those folks who were watching then and would not touch $4 JRCC with a ten foot pole now are fighting to pay $40 a share. Long term coal should be bullish. But I am skeptical how much of recent coal rally is due to real shortage and how much is speculative buy by the funds.
Meanwhile, PAL reported a Q1, 2008 profit of 16 cents per share, far better than expectations. On top of that it reported world class high grade drill results, and even the VP said this was a good result no one else has seen. And now after some initial excitement, PAL fell right back to where it closed before the May 12th earnings release, to $5.22 a share.
Another stock I missed is Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). I discovered ENER when I was researching tellurium. I liked it and made a bullish call on it but I thought it was a long term play. Recently ENER reported a Q1, 08 profit of 17 cents per share, versus a 14 cent loss last Q. ENER rallied almost 75% to more than $61 since the good news! ENER is a good company to own on two critical technologies: the tellurium based ovonic materials, and its NiMH battery technology, which is now hot for the hybrid vehicles I just mentioned. I have no doubt ENER share price should go to triple digits and beyond. But I would wait for a significant pullback to buy. Progress of technology developments takes time.
Comparatively, PAL also reported a similar 16 cents per share profit in Q1, 08, same as ENER. I don't understand why PAL still only deserves $5.22 a share, while ENER deserves $61.30 a share, almost 12 times more for the same amount of profit per share. Buying $5.22 a share of PAL is like daytime bank robbery! In a previous article I pointed out two extremely bullish developments for platinum and palladium: the termination of Russian palladium stockpile sale, and the ongoing electricity crisis in South Africa.
Latest SA government statistics (see page 9) show that South African platinum group metal production in March, 08 dropped 28% from March 07 due to the ongoing electricity crisis. The March production is even worse than January, when a 5 day mine stoppage due to the electricity crisis caught the attention of the world. South Africa produces 85% of the world's platinum and 35% of palladium, so if it loses 28% that's a huge shortfall. The metal prices must go up dramatically soon, as South Africa is entering winter, when the electricity demand is high. Higher metal prices will immediately impact PAL's quarterly result, as the company is totally unhedged.
So why people have not rushed in to buy PAL at $5.22? They must be the same people who avoided touching a $4 JRCC with a ten foot pole.
Most market participants surely are stupid. But I feel even more heartbroken for folks who bought into the hype of First Solar (FSLR). Please read my past articles. I wrote about FSLR's vulnerability in tellurium. My tellurium article has been cited and quoted all over the internet. And none of the folks holding FSLR shares even feel uncomfortable about the tellurium vulnerability, or even bother to give FSLR a call and demand an answer. I currently hold no FSLR short position only because I think the PGM metals sector, the PAL and Stillwater Mining (SWC) stocks, will give me more profit potential than shorting FSLR.
Two recent developments in FSLR's tellurium supply struggle are shockingly disturbing, in my opinion. One is a recent FSLR job posting which revealed a secretive Tellurium Initiative Department. Another one is this news item I discovered, which is pretty interesting because FSLR is obviously interested in a potential poor grade gold mine in Australia just because there might be 59 grams tellurium per ton of ore. I will stop here at the facts and reserve my own opinions till next time. Let people speculate on their own.
What I don't understand is if you like solar players, why don't you buy more legitimate silicon based companies like LDK Solar (LDK), Trina Solar (TSL), JA Solar (JASO), Canadian Solar (CSIQ) or Evergreen Solar (ESLR)? At least these companies have a bright future. I am all for solar energy, but using tellurium to generate a few watts of electricity is a waste of precious natural resources.
Disclosure: The author is heavily invested in SWC and PAL, and has hoarded physical tellurium metal to speculate on the price.
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This article has 28 comments:
- The Stockaccumulator
- 42 Comments
Jun 04 08:43 AMStockaccumulator
Good article, but a far better buy today would be PBR during this brief rare, mini-pullback in PBR...Read the below carefully researched article from "The street.com on Petroleo Brasileiro:
" (PBR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) shareholders have earned a 172% return on their investment over the last 52 weeks.
"If last week's positive earnings announcement is any indication, this Brazilian oil company has a lot more going for it than just good-looking charts (though the charts look good, too.)
PetroBras Returns Continue to Beat Oil and Brazil Investment Benchmarks
PetroBras boasts nearly a $300 billion market capitalization (its market cap just passed that of Microsoft(MSFT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)).
In fact, it now claims to be the third-largest publicly traded company in the Americas, behind Exxon Mobil(XOM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and General Electric(GE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr).
With a presence like that, it's clearly a bellwether stock both for the Latin American region and in the oil sector.
PetroBras does a lot: It explores for and produces oil and natural gas. It sells surplus production in Brazil and foreign markets. PetroBras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants and petrochemical units. It is also building new pipelines for ethanol distribution and recently set up a separate operation to manage all its ethanol activities.
Here are three reasons I like PetroBras.
1. The recent oil and gas announcements are real.
In the last six months, PetroBras has discovered three super-giant oil fields in Brazil's offshore Santos Basin. The company also confirmed in January a major natural gas and condensate deposit in the Jupiter area.
If estimates of 33 billion barrels in reserve from another field (Carioca-Sugar Loaf) prove correct, then this ranks as the third-largest oil field in the world after Saudi Arabia's Ghawar (66 billion barrels) and Kuwait's Greater Burgan (46 billion barrels). "
Rudy Martin the writer ot this is the former director of research for TheStreet.com Ratings. Earlier he worked 25 years in investment research and management positions with Fidelity Investments, Lincoln National, Dean Witter Reynolds and Transamerica Investments. He began his career as a securities investment analyst at Duff and Phelps where he published equity and fixed income securities investment recommendations. Martin holds a master's degree in finance from Kellogg Northwestern University and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. "
It is expected that PBR will have a huge number for this coming quarter's earnings announcement very shortly. Never has there been such a huge expected net profit number from any oil company, and due to the April and May record price of crude. The graphs show the accumulation going into and through each earnings announcement to be far more impressive than any other large oil/gas company... One will have to take great risk with smaller similar companies... PBR will make you money next week/month, and expect $140 by next year this time for PBR... todays $68 is a brief temporary bargain... in a week or so PBR will be back to its all time high of $78... this is a rare opportunity... research it, look at the graphs... amazing for such a large well established company that is perhaps the microsoft of oil...
I may buy 20,000 more shares of PBR today or early tommorrow...
Warmest regards... the STOCK ACCUMULATOR
- Mark Anthony
- 292 Comments
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Jun 04 09:36 AM- Secure Energy for Prosperity
- 10 Comments
Jun 04 10:19 AMI take exception to your argument for buying a Prius in the near-term. The marginal fuel savings are not significant enough to reduce our oil dependence, and most motorists will have to drive a lot to realize savings in a meaningful time period. Ironically, it is the people who drive the most, consuming the most oil and polluting the most, who will save the most by buying a hybrid.
I would agree that the development of the electric drive train and ultimately an all-electric or duel-fuel car would enable us to take advantage of a diversified energy supply over the next few decades. I look at the market for hybrids at this stage as merely a field test for engineers to improve the performance of electric car technology for future generations.
As we build out an electricity infrastructure diversified away from fossil fuels to solar, and possibly wind and nuclear, we will truly be able to get our vehicles off of fossil fuels. The reality today of course is that the grid is powered by natural gas, coal or nuclear -- so that's what you're running your plug-in hybrid on.
On an investment topic: Electric & hybrids cars require lightweight magnets for the electric motors. The motors require NEODYMIUM, which today come primarily from China (over 95% of it!).
The ramp-up in hybrid cars will increase demand for neodymium - and manufacturers are already concerned about diversifying their supply beyond China. There are no companies currently producing neodymium (and other rare earth elements) other than possibly Chevron.
LYNAS Corp (LYC.AX / LYSCF) expects production by YE2009. Several other exploration stage ventures claim neodymium reserves, although I do not buy these due to systematic over-valuation by speculators.
Another irony is that neodymium and rare earth production yields radioactive thorium, which is why both California and China have regulated and limited such mining and processing in the past. This risk of China cutting off supply -- either strategically or for health and environmental reasons -- is a huge risk to the supply of Nd for electric cars.
- schneiderrd
- 1 Comment
Jun 04 11:10 AM- billp37
- 121 Comments
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Jun 04 11:45 AMwww.theoildrum.com/nod...
- Georealist
- 430 Comments
Jun 04 12:12 PMThis is really a new low for Alpha! And that's saying a LOT....
- ferguson
- 37 Comments
Jun 04 01:26 PM- JE
- 83 Comments
Jun 04 02:00 PM- Mark Anthony
- 292 Comments
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Jun 04 03:28 PMLithium ion batteries have safety issues. They might explode. Haven't you heard about stories of cell phone lithium ion batteries exploded? Talking about a couple hundred kilogram car batteries the explosions will be very bad.
Plus the global lithium metal production is pretty limited, only 15,000 tons a year. Less than even silver!
- User 204040
- 2 Comments
Jun 04 03:51 PM- wsigler
- 57 Comments
Jun 04 05:15 PMYou say " ENER is a good company to own on two critical technologies: the tellurium based ovonic materials"
If the accuracy of this statement is any reflection on the rest of your "analysis", we can just relegate all your stuff to the dumper. They DO NOT use tellurium in their solar products - but rather, use amorphous silicon. To my knowledge, FSLR is the only solar company using tellurium - and BTW, good luck on hoarding it. It is PLENTIFUL in most all copper mines but is preently not processed because there's not enough demand...
- WayneS
- 48 Comments
Jun 04 06:33 PMbatteries. It costs $100,000 dollars.
Just make me a 80 hp car that costs $20,000, I'll be happy.
- Brian Pursley
- 280 Comments
My Website
Jun 04 07:28 PMPeak oil is garbage.
"Peak Oil theory is garbage as far as we're concerned" -- Robert W. Esser, geologist and CERA’s senior consultant/director of global oil and gas resources.
"It is obvious that the total amount of petroleum in the rocks underlying the surface ... is large beyond computation." -- Edward Orton, 1888
"everal times in the past we have thought we were running out of oil whereas actually we were only running out of ideas." -- Parke A. Dickey, 1958
"Ideas are the life blood of the science of petroleum." -- Hollis D. Hedberg, 1969
- Brian Pursley
- 280 Comments
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Jun 04 07:30 PM- Aalan
- 89 Comments
Jun 04 11:50 PMThe issue is not how much oil is under the ground. The issue is the cost of extracting it. In 1890, there were places where it seeped to the surface, and people were wondering how to get rid of it. In 1960, you only had to drill a few meters into the ground, and it came gushing up. In 1990, we needed off-shore platforms to extract it from shallow seas, and drill hundreds of meters. Now we can build platforms over deep-sea deposits and drill thousands of meters. The reach gets longer, but at a price. At some point, the price becomes prohibitive relative to the demand.
So the "peak" is not the point at which we run out of places to find oil; it's the point at which the cost of producing it begins to challenge our ability to pay for it. And there are plenty of signs that that is beginning to happen now.
- dariusf
- 1 Comment
Jun 05 11:27 AMThere are a number of companies with new Lithium ion batteries which are extremely safe. For example A123 or Alteir Nano (ALTI). On top of that full recharge time of 10 minutes, and a useful life of 12-20 years through 15,000 charge/discharge cycles. The only issue now is the cost $2/w-hr, as there is not real mass production yet.
- Iconoclast421
- 37 Comments
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Jun 05 01:27 PM- Iconoclast421
- 37 Comments
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Jun 05 01:30 PM- Iconoclast421
- 37 Comments
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Jun 05 01:38 PM- Brian Pursley
- 280 Comments
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Jun 05 01:50 PM- WayneS
- 48 Comments
Jun 06 12:57 AMThey are making money because they have
been forced to become extremely efficient.
- Brian Pursley
- 280 Comments
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Jun 06 02:12 AM- cmoher3
- 9 Comments
Jun 06 12:53 PM- Mark Anthony
- 292 Comments
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Jun 06 01:30 PMMany extremely bullish stocks are also extremely volatile, probably because some one recognizes the value and wants to get the shares cheap. Nothing falls by half in just two weeks unless there is a catastrophic new development, or there is deliberate manipulation.
I started to watch JRCC early 2007 when it climb from $8 to $16, did not buy. And then I watched it to fall to $4, and I made a call and bought massively myself at $4, today it's $40. How could something go from $16 to $4 and then to $40?
As for PAL, their open pit operation will last another 2 to 3 years. But they also have an underground mine producing much higher grade ores. And the under-ground mine naturally extends to the Offset High Grade Zone, which has one of the highest PGM metal grade in the whole world. The total size of this reserve is still unknown only because it still extends in both directions and we do not know how far it extends. But PAL has well documented the reserve size of the currently known portion, which is a very significant size. PAL is also involved in three exploration projects that are very hopeful in going into eventual production.
Visit their web site to get more info. I encourage you to call and talk to the IR. They are very approacheable. PAL insiders are buying. It's rare to see insiders of any company buying nowadays.
www.napalladium.com
- cmoher3
- 9 Comments
Jun 07 12:58 AM- SuperStocker
- 5 Comments
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Jun 07 11:41 PM- Mark Anthony
- 292 Comments
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Jun 08 01:03 PMAlso I am NOT surprised at all that First Solar have responded and immediately removed the job posting at HotJobs:
hotjobs.yahoo.com/job-...
The above link no longer works. On april 30, some one discovered FSLR's tellurium job posting:
messages.finance.yahoo...
Of course it is damaging that people discover this job posting and start to speculate what FSLR is up to. So soon afterwards, FSLR removed link to this job #655 from their own web site.
But their job posting is still out on other web sites. I discovered it, and provided link in my article. And now, several days has passed and FSLR obviously noticed my new article. They must have managed to get the job posting removed from the other web sites as well. Maybe they have filled that job, maybe not. But the important thing is the existance of such a position. Let me copy and paste the job posting here for a record:
hotjobs.yahoo.com/job-...
(link no longer works)
Manager, Metals Refining Development
Location: Perrysburg, OH
Job Code: 655
# of openings: 1
----------------------... ---------------------------
Description
First Solar is a leader in the development and manufacturing of thin film solar modules used in grid-connected solar power plants. Our high growth and position in the renewable energy industry offers outstanding opportunities to individuals seeking an exciting work environment in one of the most important industries for the 21st century. Our culture is one where teamwork, continuous improvement, achievement of results, and environmental responsibility are core values. We are seeking new associates that are motivated to contribute their talents to making cost effective solar energy an important part of the world’s energy mix.
Basic Job Functions
The Manager will lead the initiative on recovery of tellurium from mined sources and non-traditional material containing tellurium. The manager will help to build a group that will have capability in hydro- and pyro-metallurgy skills to be applied in meeting the objective of tellurium recovery. The Manager and the group will develop processes at the bench scale, expertise to scale up to operation level, capacity to work with external (metallurgical) labs, select and optimize equipment and deliver on tellurium units ready for use in the manufacture of CdTe.
Qualification Requirements:
· Bachelor’s degree in an Engineering discipline
· Advanced degree in metallurgical or chemical engineering
· Specific and demonstrated experience working in process development environment
· Five (5) years experience in a lead role (process or project development)
· Proven problem solving skills.
· Proven Organizational and Managerial Skills.
Essential Job Functions:
· Develop team containing associates of A players to move the metals purification initiative to level capable of supporting deployment of processes/operations for tellurium recovery
· Responsible for interviewing, hiring and coaching process engineering personnel to meet assigned objectives.
· Manage process and equipment selection, evaluate analytical support to group, ensure process improvement activity relating to installing a plant to produce tellurium.
· Responsible for and providing oversight for documenting and reporting development work in high quality/scholarly format.
· Works with others in Tellurium Initiative Department to support efforts to locate and develop additional tellurium sources.
· Assist in department expense and capital budget activity and help to adhere to budget
· Responsible for effective communication of activity and outcomes
· Foster team-building of group
· Ensure adherence to safety procedures and good housekeeping standards.
· Serve as a resource for tellurium/cadmium metallurgical processes.
- Mark Anthony
- 292 Comments
My Website
Jun 11 11:24 AMwww.napalladium.com/pd...