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Is the Long Commute Still Worth It?

by: James Hamilton June 12, 2008    

James Hamilton

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The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.

Temecula is a community in southern California some 60 miles from downtown San Diego and not a whole lot closer to anywhere else. And yet I've known people who commute to work here from Temecula, having been willing to trade driving time for more affordable housing. The population of Temecula doubled over the last decade.

But with gas now nearing $4.50 a gallon in San Diego, the housing-commuting tradeoff is looking a lot less favorable for these exurban communities. Via Calculated Risk, the Los Angeles Times reports that as many as 15% of the homes in Temecula are currently either bank-owned or in some stage of foreclosure.

If you make your living trying to provide goods or services to those residents, higher gasoline prices are hitting your wallet by much more than the cost you personally pay for your own gasoline.

Source: New Jersey Gas Prices.

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This article has 17 comments:

  •  
    Jun 12 08:26 AM
    James Howard Kunstler sounds to me like a strident nihilist, but I think he made the right call when he called exurban development the single largest misallocation of resources in the 20th century. High oil prices will highlight the folly of driving 60 miles to work.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:09 AM
    it is not only gas prices. add to it a couple of hours sitting in the car wasting your time without pay, eating junk food and you realize that your lifestyle is seriously debased. on the other side the married ones get valuable time away from each other which i think extends their marriage and makes them generally happier.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:15 AM
    Well, telecommute! Or buy a condo downtown. All manner of creative alternatives exist.

    Not enough money? Change jobs! I hear they're looking for people to alphabetize M&Ms. Can't outsource that.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:15 AM
    Our long suburban nightmare is starting to come to a dreary end, not with a bang but with a whimper. Things should really pick up once the roads turn to gravel.If you're thinking about moving closer in, you'd better do it now before the big rush.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:18 AM
    baychev: If you need lots of time away from your spouse to be happily married perhaps your spouse married the wrong person! I know mine did - thankfully she hasn't figured that out yet! 30 years and going...a short commute has been beneficial to us though.
    I feel for those who must commute so far. Somethings gotta give and I think it's demand. When demand drops lower prices will follow.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:22 AM
    So there are a whole bunch of people who want to get from Temecula to San Diego every day. Hmmm. What about those mulit-person transportation modules the Socialist Europeans use? I think they call them buses and trains.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:37 AM
    There is no mass transit from Temecula to San Diego and little chance of there being any in the foreseeable future.

    (Just moved to the Bay Area and finally live in an area with great mass transit. What a difference it makes!)
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 11:08 AM
    Sorry Stephen... I wish public transportation worked in So Cal but the geography and layout of the cities make it impossible for a European solution. Temecula will be stuck being a long car ride to San Diego, Orange County, and even Riverside (which is where a lot of Temeculites work).

    Temecula and places like that outside of Los Angeles are where people bought "the house of their dreams" for a reasonble price... and then they spend all of their time on the roads so they never get to see it.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 12:08 PM
    Pretty amazing that anyone would mock European-style mass transit at this point, with gas prices keeping more people from making their mortgage payments and long commutes keeping more people from seeing their families.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 12:14 PM
    I am one of the lucky ones. I work at home and never need to go anywhere else—unless I want to—for fun. That is the way it needs to be for millions of people who COULD work this way. Employers need to learn to trust employees who work in the information arena (I'm a designer in publishing). There are certainly many ways to keep tabs and stay in touch. The other thing that needs to happen is that businesses need to consider moving out of the the city too. The workforce is already there. For many businesses where they are located isn't an issue—lower rents in the exburbs could be a boon. Hopefully we will also see the resurgence of the smaller neighborhood grocery store. It simply isn't realistic to expect millions of families to move into urban areas to be near work. There isn't housing, schools, or services enough for them—it has to be the other way around. Park the damn SUV and think about some alternatives. Experience a life off the road.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 01:11 PM
    At least the people in San Deigo can drive to Tijuana Mexico to get gas for about $2.50 a gallon.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 02:16 PM
    What is this fairy tale land? How many people do you know who moved to far out suburbs for the drive? None! People moved there because they could not afford to live closer to high priced metro areas. High gas prices just makes that worse. It does not provide an incentive to move closer, those people have even less disposable income now.

    The price of 15 year old economy cars has shot up because they get 40 mpg, supply and demand. What is going to happen to metro housing prices as more people try to shave off drive time? The cycle repeats. We need affordable energy for this country to function. Read about it here,


    AmericansForJobsAndEne...

    We need to increase domestic oil production and then use the money saved to fund alternative vehicles like hydrogen. We cannot stop traveling, our economic engine would grind to a halt.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 02:25 PM
    Long commutes were never about gas cost - it's about lost time and traffic stress. I gave it up for those two reasons long before gas tripled in price.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 03:30 PM
    At market peak, a new 3,500 sq. ft. home in Temecula was $600k to $800k. Now, they're 40 to 50 percent of that. In San Diego, they still cost $800k+. At market peak, gas cost was an issue because the delta in home costs was not as significant. Now, it is significant. You can buy "a lot" of gas for what you'll save. In fact, property tax savings and a Prius or Aptera (Google it, coming to a Socal highway near you) will financially justify the decision so you can pocket the $300k to $400k you save each month in financing the comparable home in San Diego.

    Other family and personal issues are probably much bigger factors than gas prices in making a decision about living in San Diego vs. Temecula. The people who are hurting are those who bought in Temecula at market peak, have ballooning payments and are now also hit with higher gas prices.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 12 10:17 PM
    The reason we have urban sprawl in socal is because developers are greedy, people are stupid and we have no political leadership. If we had insisted on trains instead of freeways we wouldn't be in this crazy mess.
    Reply
  •  
    Jun 14 11:29 AM
    The location mantra has never been more accurate. And the Prius? Great idea, but in reality they pollute the environment more than an F350 diesel. Just wait til those Prius fans have to replace the two dozen batteries on those cars. And pay for the disposal waste fees.

    In a European road test a diesel BMW 5-series beat a Prius in mpg over a 600 mile road trip. Google it.

    But with real estate I think people are learning they don't 'need' the mcmansion and can live in a nice 3 bedroom home IN the city. How do you think previous generations did it.. the average sq footage has increased by leaps and bounds and is bound to diminish at this stage.
    Reply
  •  
    Sep 05 02:37 PM
    to johndough 1110: Where did you get the pollution info on the prius vs. ford f350 diesel? I'd love to see some documentation on that, as I"m sure a lot of other people would.
    Reply
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