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Judy Weil

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Quote Of The Day 

“I would say that any time you’re outside a regional population hub or a city center like Portland, or Olympia and you’re out in the rural areas or the small cities your [house] pricing is under pressure.” - Hadley S. Robbins, EVP, Chief Credit Officer, West Coast Bancorp. (Seeking Alpha’s West Coast Bancorp F2Q08 (Qtr End 6/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript, July 21st)

Sales/Price Data

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell to 10-Year Low. “National Association of Realtors: Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in June to the lowest level in a decade, signaling tumbling real-estate prices and consumer confidence are hurting demand. Resales dropped 2.6% to a lower than forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month. The median home price dropped 6.1% from June last year. The biggest housing recession in a generation, now being exacerbated by a tightening in credit and rising borrowing costs as financial losses spread, threatens to stall economic growth. Mounting foreclosures are depressing home prices even more, prompting some buyers to hold out for bigger bargains.” (Bloomberg July 24th)

Home Builders Battle To Survive. In addition to the 44% decline in housing starts last month, the California Building Industry Assn. said its latest figures on new-home sales showed a 51% drop-off in May from a year earlier... The Los Angeles area, which includes Orange County, has fared even worse than the state as a whole... New-home sales in May were down 79% from a year earlier, and median sale prices for the month were off 23% from a year earlier, to $409,990. California new-home prices in May were down 14% from a year earlier, to $379,000.” (LA Times, July 24th) 

Manhattan Rental Market Report. “Daniel Baum, COO, The Real Estate Group of NY: There is more doorman inventory this month than we’ve seen in a long time, yet prices keep rising. Conversely, prices in non-doorman properties have come down, and inventories for those units have followed suit. But if it’s a widely-accepted fact that the market has, indeed, turned—even the largest companies concede… why are prices continuing to increase in service buildings? I must conclude that owners of doorman buildings are resistant to lowering prices and, instead, are offering incentives while actually increasing prices to offset those concessions. Unfortunately, this strategy appears to be backfiring, and inventories continue to mount… My main concern is that these accumulating vacancies may not be absorbed even if prices are lowered.” (TREGNY, July 23rd)

OFHEO Home Price Index Drops 0.3%. “Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's monthly House Price Index:  U.S. home prices fell 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April-May. The decline was less than half the 0.8% drop between March-April but brings the total drop for the 12 months ending in May to 4.8%. Since the April 2007 peak, prices have fallen 4.9%. The OFHEO monthly index, because it is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, currently excludes the higher end of the housing market and thus does not reflect homes purchased with jumbo mortgages or cash. It thus considerably understates home prices compared to the NAR and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.” (Big Builder Online, July 22nd) 

Toll Bros. Sells Final House. Philadelphia: “While Chester County has seen a general decrease in requests for building permits, the picture is not nearly as bleak as the national average. Chester County saw a 13.8% reduction in requests for new building permits in Q1’08 compared to Q1’07. Nationally, there was a 37.5% reduction.” (Daily Local, July 22nd)

  

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This article has 1 comment:

  •  
    Wonderful critique. I'm currently very nervous about the state of the equity markets as they explicitly relate to the Restricted Short Sale List. The referendum ends on July 31st and after this huge Bear Trap we've been watching for the last week, I think we could be running into a wall of spikes with blinders muting our perceptual reactions.

    In the event that a slew of bad new comes out over the next few days combined with the timing of the Housing Bill and the ending of the SSRL, we could see the Levy break - so to speak, and massive market losses following the SSRL overturn.

    The fed had better be on HIGH alarm in the upcoming two weeks because I think, and maybe I'm just a bear, that **** is going to hit the fan.
    Reply