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Tracking Sentiment in the Movement of Sectors and Asset Classes

by: Brett Steenbarger July 24, 2008 | about stocks: GLD / USO / XLE / XLF / XLY    
Brett Steenbarger

Brett Steenbarger

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I recently noted the stock sector rotation that had dramatically shifted patterns of performance in the market. Tracking these themes has been key to trading the market so far this week.

Above we see percent changes in the S&P 500 Index (SPY); the financial sector within the S&P 500 universe (XLF); the homebuilders index ($HGX); the consumer discretionary stocks within the S&P 500 (XLY); oil (USO); gold (GLD); yields on the ten-year Treasury note ($TNX); and energy stocks within the S&P 500 Index (XLE).

Note the continued weakness in energy stocks as a function of commodity weakness (oil, gold), and the continued strength in the financial stocks, housing, and consumer discretionary issues. As financial shares and stocks overall (SPY) have strengthened, we've seen a bounce in the U.S. dollar and a rise in Treasury rates--a clear reversal from the flight to quality that had driven yields below 3.8% early last week.

By tracking the thematic movements of sectors and asset classes, we can gain a perspective on whether markets are avoiding risk or displaying risk tolerance. Those sentiment shifts have defined both down moves and up moves so far in 2008.

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This article has 2 comments:

  •  
    Jul 26 03:29 AM
    Sooooooo?! What's the point? OK, there is the shift that can be seen clearly. What does it mean for the future? If you have no clue, what does it mean to point it out? As you say, it helps you gain a perspective? But you couldn't articulate the perspective. You say the volatility is both upways and downways. Of course markets fluctuate. That is news?! Above all, you need to express your own insight as to where do we go from here. But you are washing your hands off any such insight.
    Reply
  •  
    Jul 26 05:40 PM
    Agree with Aquater. Why bother to read this article? Why bother to write it? Maybe author is afraid to draw a conclusion. He might be wrong . . . thinking might be fuzzy. No seeking alpha here.
    Reply
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