Apple's Biggest Rumor: iPod or Jobs?

by: Larry Dignan August 26, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL    

Larry Dignan

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The Apple (AAPL) rumor mill is back in action - and this time the bloggers are calling the date: Sept. 9. That’s the day the company is expected to announce a new look for the iPod Nano, a new version of iTunes, an OS X update and more.  Apple, of course, hasn’t confirmed any of it and rumors in the past have been off-the-mark. Still, during last month’s earnings call, the company made several references to a “future product transition” that it couldn’t discuss at the time and it has a history of announcements in September.

So what exactly will happen on Sept. 9? Who knows? If the news is incremental, it could be a press release and an updated home page. If it’s a big splash - and a revamping of the nano line, along with a new iTunes would likely qualify - then we expect to see Steve Jobs on stage and under the spotlight, selling us on the latest and greatest from Apple.

Normally, putting Jobs under the spotlight wouldn’t be a big deal, but you may recall that Jobs’ health became a topic of concern when an (apologetic) analyst asked about it during the earnings call last month. Back in June, Jobs looked unusually thin and haggard during a keynote speech at the Worldwide Developers Conference. Then, the New York Post reported that Jobs was suffering complications from, or a reappearance of, the pancreatic cancer cured by surgery nearly four years ago. The analyst asked the company to comment and the reply was a simple ” Steve’s health is a private matter.” But is it?

A few days later, Jobs reportedly called the New York Times to discuss his health. What he said is unknown, though, because the interview was granted on the condition that it be off-the-record. The piece - while absent of any details - did delve into the larger debate of whether a company is obligated to share information about a CEO’s ailing health? This excerpt from the NYT piece:

No company has ever been held to account by the S.E.C. for failing to disclose information about its chief executive’s health, and I’m not suggesting that the S.E.C. should go after Apple for keeping mum about Mr. Jobs’s health. Indeed, I found plenty of people who felt he had every right to keep the information to himself. “As long as he is healthy, he doesn’t have to disclose,” said Charles R. Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Company. Roger McNamee, the well-known technology investor at Elevation Partners, said, “Because Steve Jobs has been appearing in public regularly, investors are getting a valuable form of disclosure.”

But if ever there was a chief executive who ought to feel some responsibility to tell shareholders about his health, it is Steve Jobs. First of all, he is not like other chief executives — he is, instead, the single most indispensable chief executive on the planet. As Mr. Wolf nicely put it, “Apple is Steve Jobs and Steve Jobs is Apple.” He added, “I think the stock would drop 25 percent or more if he were to leave the company unexpectedly.” When investors whisper about Mr. Jobs’s health, it’s not just gossip they are indulging in — his health really matters to Apple’s future.

Like everyone else, I’ll be waiting for the big announcement, whether it’s on the 9th or some other day, and I’ll be anxious to see the new Nanos, if that’s really what’s coming. But I’ll also be waiting for some details on the announcement itself. Where? How? And, more significantly, who?

I understand that a person’s health is his own business and I really don’t want to invade that space. But if Jobs takes that stage looking less-than-healthy the way he did at the WWDC, you can pretty much bet that the matter will come up again - and there might even be a reaction on Wall Street.

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This article has 20 comments:

  •  
    Aug 26 05:36 PM
    Why bring up Jobs' health again?! I really wish that writers would put in a little more effort into their work...it's embarrassing, really. Or find a different profession, please. Despicable.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 06:18 PM
    So your source is bloggers on the internet? Jeez.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 06:21 PM
    Hello,
    I would like to apply for a job at seeking alpha. My qualifications are that I can continually post worthless commentary on Apple, with a misleading header and worthless speculation so that I get incredible numbers of clicks.

    For example, iPHONE FREQUENCY LAUNCHES RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS, or STEVE JOBS TO BE IMPLANTED IN NEW SUPERMAC PC. WILL LIVE FOREVER.

    I'm glad I never had to grovel like this.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 06:27 PM
    A more informative article here: www.reuters.com/articl...

    Apparently there are NO laws yet on the books requiring full disclosure of CEO Health...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 06:30 PM
    And this news is definitely OLD. L-3 Communications article from 2006: www.forbes.com/home/le...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 06:44 PM
    I have no doubt that Sept. 9 will
    be a great day for Apple users and AAPL investors. To bring up Jobs' medical status at this time is inappropriate, to say the least. Perhaps Larry just has a morbid need to DIG.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 07:49 PM
    The author must draw great satisfaction that no one outside of his immediate circle is interested in his health. I am sure it will stay that way.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 08:06 PM
    I've done lots of research on what was said about Steve Jobs' health.

    1. He had a rare form of pancreatic tumor which can be cured, not the more common form which is usually deadly.

    2. Weight loss is indeed a common side effect of his original surgery.

    3. The second surgery - to correct the weight loss - could have produced results by now and he may look great.

    I think he will make an appearance which will put the health rumors to rest.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 08:33 PM
    Holy crap! Do you really think they are going to put a supermac inside of Steve? LOL That was great... You other complainers who don't write anything and whine about it should learn how to do it in style... kudos Fedman.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 09:44 PM
    This article is disgusting. No wonder Jobs doesn't want to set a precedent on commenting on his health -- our jealous and infantile media is only too eager to invade his personal life and turn him into the next Britney Spears/Paris Hilton.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 09:44 PM
    Steve, come out in a FATSUIT, then peel it off, drop to the floor and do five one handed pushups...then jump to your feet, yelling ..."ONE MORE THING..." and blow them all out with whoops of laughter!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 26 11:35 PM
    TanToday, good idea, but let's go FURTHER !
    First, Steve should start coughing a lot, and limping, and visiting hospitals. He should progress to using a wheelchair sometimes, and having a mask and oxygen tank, all the while making "no comment' about his health. I would even have a cemetary plot picked out with my headstone if I were him, "Steve Jobs" carved into it, and the year of death carved in as 200_ (as though he won't see 2010!)
    Put on this whole show for about a month, and let the stock plummet to $30 or so. THEN give stock option awards out the wazoo!! This will be a sign to "the faithful" to buy in.
    Then finally, do a 10k run and shock all the nasty pessimists, as you provided "backdated" options for everyone with a brain, in a way that no SEC could touch you for!
    that would be funny!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 01:13 AM
    I'm not sure I understand the vitriol around questions about Jobs' health. A large part of Apple's market cap is based on his health, probably larger than almost any other single factor. To somehow say that the BoD or Jobs should disguise a life threatening issue is simply bad business and is clearly against investors' interests. If people want to be out of the public eye, don't run a public company, especially one where Jobs clearly is a mind blowingly brilliant micro manager responsible for much of the company's success.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 08:04 AM
    This article sux. Jobs' health is off the table.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 08:41 AM
    I cringe whenever I see this writers name. He must have rhinoceros skin to be so shameless.

    And as for that smug looking mugshot ...uuuurrghh.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 09:18 AM
    Too bad there's no SEC law agianst perpetuating unfounded health rumors...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 11:08 AM
    More useless blather
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 27 12:07 PM
    Is Steve Jobs THAT indispensable? Give us a break. If Jobs did not have someone trained and under-studying him in case something happens, a trusted assistant, then he (Jobs) would be derelict in his duties.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 10:50 AM
    JonT, I take exception to the Rhino skin comment. All the Rhinos are insulted.
    seadine, Remember a guy named Howard Hughes. Jobs has every right to his privacy, based on presedent.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Aug 28 12:18 PM
    Good, relevant article. I wouldn't buy the stock because of uncertainty about Jobs' health. But he seemed to resolve that uncertainty with his leak to the NYT that he's ok. Some people aren't sure they should believe him, and that question will have to be resolved by each individual speculator.
    Reply | Link to Comment
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