(OGZPY.PK)

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  • commenter
    User 256461
    Sep 05 03:24 PM
    Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Blood on the Streets - Buy Russia [view article]
    "somebody ought to figure out how much russia defaulted on monies owed since ww1"
    -Very little. The major default was in 1998, with the help of seven years' worth of yankee "advice" on restructuring their economy. After Putin came to power, the country paid back all debts ahead of schedule in 2003 and is now a net creditor.
    "Russian population will be only
    100 million in 40 years."
    -Population projections indicate that the population will stabilize around 135 million within 5-10 years before starting to grow again.
    "Europe only buys 25% of gas in Russia."
    -No, you're wrong. Europe buys around 25% of oil from Rus and 40% of gas from Rus. Replacing both would be difficult, especially gas, because infrastructure doesn't exist. From what I hear, European customers (e.g. Germany) have good relationships with Russian suppliers. The only problems that crop up are in places where pro-American governments have been installed (Ukraine, Georgia, Poland).
    -If you want to understand the mindset, you first need to understand that it's not business as usual. There's a long term goal over there of modernising and rebuilding the economy. That means that cash cow industries like the energy industry will be used to fund the whole process, preferably without foreign involvement (why would they want foreign companies sending profits out of the country if Russian companies can do the same projects and keep the profits within the country?). I agree with some posters that the mindset is a little strange - perhaps paranoid and oversensitive, and working with Russians can be a bizarre experience. The right approach is patience. The country has huge natural resources, a stable government, a highly educated population, and has made strong advances in IP rights, taxation reform, corporate law, etc. over the last twenty years. Even the CIA Factbook says so. I think much of the negative image in the Anglo-American world has to do biased media reporting, rather than actual events in Russia. I watch news channels from a dozen countries around the world and the only ones that inevitably portray Russia as evil, corrupt, repressive, etc. are CNN, Fox, and Sky. Don't let yourselves be brainwashed.

    Reply
  • commenter
    adamnb
    Sep 03 08:10 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    The transAlaska/Canadian gas pipeline currently being planned to bring nat gas from the Arctic via Alberta to the U.S., is estimated to be the longest in the world, 2000 miles, with construction costs in the range of $30 billion, and a target date for completion of 2028. Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 03 07:13 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Investor 612, Russia is an energy powerhouse: oil, gas, coal and probably uranium and thorium.. In addition, that country has a huge amount of unused and underused agricultural land that should be exploited. Obviously, instead of dumb Condi and dumb Angela interferring in things that they dont know anything about and are incapable of understanding, they should find some way to introduce Russian farmers to the way business is done in the US and Canada.

    Now that its citizens are drinking less vodka and practicing more capitalism, Russia is on the way to becoming an economic powerhouse too. It's not going to happen tomorrow, but eventually, and I heard a lecture a few hours ago in which the many advantages for everybody of free trade were spelled out, so what's the point with the cold war rhetoric...

    I've heard people blame Reagan for the expulsion of women from universities and the professions in Afghanistan, but what they should also do is to blame him for the millions of persons who have been hooked on junk coming from that country. I thought that Mitt Romney was the best man for the US presidency, but when he started talking about the Reagan revolution I tuned out.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Investor612
    Sep 02 06:01 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Fred, who in their right mind would invest in Russia with the very real threat of seeing their investment nationalized? Reply
  • commenter
    Investor612
    Sep 02 05:59 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Hey Fred, regarding hanging Afghan poppy production on Reagan. They've been growing it for centuries. How about blaming those responsible for the bump in production, The Taliban.

    flstearns-I agree Plain's experience isn't as much as a VP candidate should have. The trouble is, Obama has even less experience and he's running for the top job. At least Palin, who may never be the President if her tocket wins, should have the opportunity to get some on the job training.

    jjason-Are you going to spam every thread with your Obama drivel?

    Reply
  • commenter
    jjason
    Sep 02 07:03 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Fred,

    Please go to:

    www.stopoilspeculation.../

    and sign the petition.

    Also, on page 88 in the July/August 2008 issue of Wealth Manager magazine there is and excellent article by Matthew J Phillips on speculation in commodity markets. Everyone on SA should read it.

    OIL IS POLITICS

    OBAMA / BIDEN 08     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 02:16 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    fist... I only said that Governor Palin is in favor of a pipeline bringing gas from the far north to the US mid-west. They have been talking about this for more than 20 years, but if shale gas is going to be as big as some people think that it is, then I cant see that line being constructed in the near future.

    As for the energy policies of the candidates, John McCain has made a very sensible comment about nuclear. I certainly believe that all the other candidates and such can make sensible comments, but as I say, the energy picture of the future is going to need a big slice of nuclear. I dont see any getting around that.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 02:09 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Lalo, the capacity of state-of-the-art LNG ships is about to double, which will mean more gas to the US from that source. As for this fertilizer thing, I remember when Sir Harry Kroto (Nobel laureate in chemistry) said that oil and gas production were to slump, it would hit the fertilizer industry. It has already hit domestic US fertilizer output, although access to shale gas may change that. As for fertilizer production in the Gulf, I dont know anything about that, but it could increase. The question is how much.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 02:04 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    fran...the place to see things like solar and wind discussed is EnergyPulse. You can reach it through Google - or energypulse.net. As for myself, wind is eventually going to be some help, but not soon, and not where base load electricity is concerned. Nuclear is the answer there.

    And, of course, nuclear is constantly discussed on EnergyPulse, and not be amateurs like myself. Solar is pretty much a mystery to me, unfortunately.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 01:59 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Georealist, my new energy economics textbook was published last year, and a new printing is now being prepared. Not bad I think, although nobody was more surprised than I was to find out about that. As for only selling 10 books, I wrote a couple of books that probably didn't sell half that many.

    About Ronald Reagan. I was going to vote for Mitt Romny had he been nominated, until I heard him talking about the "Reagan Revolution". Thanks to Reagan, dope sales throughout the world skyrocketed, because he increased access to Afghanistan drug production. Way to go, Ron.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 01:42 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    NakedJaybird, speaking of vets, I hear more gutter language on prime time television than I did in the barracks during my three years in the US infantry and two in the artillery. For that reason I dont need to hear any more in comments on my work - although, admittedly, those comments are extremely valuable.

    Fred     Reply
  • commenter
    Fred Banks
    Sep 02 01:36 AM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Brian Purseley, you say that US production is at a 50 year high. I'd go into Google if I were you, because they have a very neat diagram showing US production over the past 75 years. According to that diagram US production peaked in the early l970s, and has been more or less flat since. HOWEVER, gas from shale may be in the process of changing that. The key issue however is not US production but the gap between consumption and production, however shale gas and gas hydrates may do something about that too. If so, we should be glad, because otherwise we will have to deal with more coal before the technology is developed to give us inexpensive gas and liquids from coal in large quantities.

    Fred

    Reply
  • commenter
    nakedjaybird
    Sep 01 09:37 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Sep 01 04:37 PMuser211108 - i read the nyt aricle you mentioned. Basically, it just lists the roadblocks people keep thowing in the way of getting the right things done.

    As I have said in other blogs, the grid needs to be beefed up and expanded, and also provide for solar and wind hook-up. And I grossly stated that high power transmission lines are probably within 25-50 miles of any future installation.

    Take a look at where all the hydro installations are (Grand Coulee Dam in the middle of nowhere is the equivalent of 8 (eight) 1000 MWe nuc plants. No look at the rest of the hydro locations west/midwest/southeast... etc. As for nucs; we have over 100 1000 MWe plants scattered around the US - few states without - most state are less than 200 mi in one direction or another. Then there is the coal - everywhere??

    So, the grid problem is just a bunch of roadblocks (policy/politics/regul... - we have the technology and wherewithall to improve it and expand it immediately. Report abuse
    nakedjaybird
    Sep 01 09:20 PMYou know, in the NYTimes article, a FERC member member is quoted saying we need an "INTERSTATE TRANSMISSION SUPERHIGHWAY SYSTEM" - he is so right.

    And where they should run that grid is alongside/between/abov... the US Interstate hiway system that exists. And then, put the electrified ferries on steel-wheeled rails in the same space. Then we simply take the cargo off the diesel (biodiesel hybrid) trucks and ferry it electrically powered by solar and wind - that's a good role for solar and wind.

    Centainly takes the wind out of the sails of the contras that continually talk about balancing the grid.

    This idea solves two if not three problems at the same time. Since the Gov't steamrolled for the interstate highway system, let them steamroll for electrifying it. Simple. The right of way is there. Who's going to argure?. Yes, I know, someone will.

    And what's the distance between interstate hiways? Do they go thru wind mill and solar land, and do they eventually move right into cities, and go thru where all the people are. DUH??

    I hope someone in FERC reads this.

    Help out, guys. I'm like solarPV on a native hut, with a microwave, color TV, cell phone, but connected to no one.


    Report abuse
    nakedjaybird
    Sep 01 09:27 PMOh yes, and wireless internet!

    But I'm as helpless as all the steers running around me and that just reminds me of Washington DC every time I look at them and feed them. And what do I get in return - about the same stuff - let me help you city folks, it's hot, wet, sort of like putty, and smells like shit. If it looks like, smells like, feels like, it probably is.........yup!

    Happy Memorial Day to all the Vets and all those enjoying the freedom they have provided in the US and worldwide - regardless of the naysayers.     Reply
  • commenter
    RECON605
    Sep 01 07:47 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    Pardon the pun, but it seems the writer is ignorant of alternative energy.

    Where ther is a will there is a way.

    The Europeans will have to work on finding alternative energy sources to use, and that would mean that they will have to stop their socialistic experiments and work to create energy sources other than Nuclear to fend off the winters.

    WHAT DO THEY HAVE THE MOST OF, BESIDES PEOPLE?     Reply
  • commenter
    Georealist
    Sep 01 03:57 PM
    More on Russian Gas [view article]
    And you think Reagan was shortsighted or intellectually incapable because he didn't want long term supply agreements made with the Soviets!!?? Incredible...just ask any of Russia's recent partners how well they've kept their contractual obligations...let's start with BP and work our way East towards Sakhalin.
    Also...it seems that to be taken seriously one needs to understand the difference between natural gas and oil. The BTC pipeline is oil...natural gas is still a regional market...LNG facilities MIGHT be built for fractionation in the US..but since shale deposits are ALREADY delivery record amounts of nat gas I'd think reversing the flow of LNG towards Europe is in the realm of possibility.
    No one knows if the US can be energy independent..along the way to finding out nuclear will certainly play a role, as will compressed nat gas for vehicular transport.
    If the tone of your book is as pompous and pretentious as your article one can only imagine how enlightening the ten copies sold were.     Reply
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