Michael Fitzsimmons

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    • ConocoPhillips: More Than Just a Great Stock
      i agree, it's seldom you can buy a company of COP's quality when the PE damn near equals the dividend yield. in the longer term, the America has no alternative but to migrate transportation solutions toward US produced natural gas. that said, the American gov, media, and people (outside of picken's following) have yet to figure this out, however, within the next few years, it will become ever more apparent that we have no choice but to leverage US natural gas production. when we DO figure it out, COP's value will also become more apparent as the US's second largest natural gas producer.
      Jan 07 10:27 am |Rating: +4 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Crudomania Is Over
      longoil: well, there have been a few elephant discoveries in the last few years: tengiz in the caspian, chevrons jack find in the GOM, and the huge finds by petrobras off the coast of brazil. that said, all of these new finds are either very deep (brazil, GOM) or technically challenging (high sulfer in the caspian)...i.e. *expensive*. regardless, your point is well taken because despite these finds, the depletion rates of current mature fields swamp this new production (which except for tengiz, aren't even online yet).
      Jan 06 19:13 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Should We Abolish Credit Rating Agencies?
      The answer to your question is YES.
      Moody's, Fitch, and S&P should be shut down and their principals put behind bars for their fraudulent role in the credit crisis. Had not these agencies slapped AAA ratings on repackaged junk instruments, those instruments would never have been able to have been sold. If the instruments had not be tradeable (removing the liability from the originators), then the fraudulent credit crisis spiral would never have got off the ground. But, the ratings agencies new there were billions to make by playing the game, so they played it while regulators looked the other way. I have as much use for the ratings agencies as I do for the SEC: none whatsoever.
      Jan 06 18:55 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 2 of 2)
      john s. gordon: the iranians took hostages because they were tired of the CIA and the US installed shah ruling their country. let's switch the roles for sake of debate. let's say the US had no nuclear weapon, and china invaded mexico and canada and installed a ruler in the US. what would our response be? we'd probably overthrow the ruler and start working on a nuclear bomb. right? it's all action and reaction, and it's all based on US military imprerialism and agression in the middle east and central asia in order to satisfy our foreign oil addcition. the unholy alliances the US has made with terrorists in the past (shah of iran, sadam hussein, bin laden, uzbekistan dictator, i could go on and on), is quite simply a failed foreign policy, and will fail in the long run as an energy policy. imho.

      skip: wrt GLD, i suppose it's ok short term. in the long run, my paranoia about the financial markets leads me to want to buy and hold the gold coins in my hot little hands. sure the coins have a mint premium, but that premium holds fairly constant as the price of gold goes up and down, and also holds if you want to sell them. wrt pipelines and MLP's, i agree with you - there are some great high yielding opportunities there, and i kick myself for not buying more of them in late december. wrt COP, everything i read is that the relationship COP has with lukoil and the russians is very symbiotic and beneficial to both partners. COP brings technology and management, and obviously russia brings the resources and manpower. from what i have read, COP and the russians want to expand their cooperation. i like the relationship - it goes to show what can happen if americans are so damn arrogant. the russians even made statements to the effect that COP CEO Mulva (i think the best CEO in the oil patch) wasn't arrogant like most big oil CEO's. he's regarded as a problem solver. anyhow, you are correct to point out the risk, but looking at COP's price, it appears to be priced in. COP was not long ago selling at a price in which the yield was about equal to the PE (!). i still think COP is a strong buy. thanks for the comments.
      Jan 06 12:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 1 of 2)
      F. Banks: thank you.

      User 332038: of course you are absolutely right...i got the Prize's prize confused. thanks for the correction.

      k45: thanks. keep your eye on gold in the years ahead.
      Jan 06 12:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Crudomania Is Over
      To suggest crude oil is similar to tulip bulb mania, and to suggest 2009 crude oil prices were due to speculation, is ridiculous.

      Despite crude oil prices of $145/barrel and gasoline at $4.50/gallon, worldwide oil supply never got much over 86 million barrels a day.

      The only reason crude oil prices have fallen as much as they have is because demand has fallen off a cliff due to the deep economic crisis which was due, in part, to the sky high oil prices to begin with.

      The US federal reserve and treasury are printing money as fast as they can to reflate the economy. As long as the US government continues to try to fix a commodity crisis (oil supply) with financial tom-foolery, the US economy will continue to suffer as everytime it begins to recover, oil prices will rise and nip it off in the bud. The *only* structural fix is a strategic long-term comprehensive energy policy (see my website). Instead, the US sticks with its oil centric policy and it's military imperialism in order to gain access to middle eastern and caspian sea oil assets. This will be a failed strategy as, at some point in the next 5-10 years, worldwide oil supply will simply not keep up with worldwide oil demand and the price of oil will skyrocket again. Not a good scenario for a country that uses 25% of the world's oil, imports 70% of that oil, and is bankrupt after the last 8 years of financial mismanagement.
      Jan 06 09:00 am |Rating: +3 -5 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 2 of 2)
      Mythbuster: perhaps you cannot read - my energy policy certainly supports US oil exploration and production as well as leveraging US natural gas reserves (now).

      do you mythbustes have a website where you go to in order to figure out how to transfer the wealth of america to the saudis, russians, iranians, iraqis, and venezuelans as efficiently as possible? because that is exactly what you are proposing by thinking that the US, with only 3% of the world's oil reserves, can fix our 70% dependence on foreign oil by domestic sources only. this is simply the same old oil-centric flawed strategy that has led to the decline of the US economy, our currency, and our standard of living while at the same time enriching the same countries that i am sure you hate (those damn muslim arabs! i can hear you talking now....). what an idiotic energy strategy.
      Jan 05 22:07 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 1 of 2)
      GMiki: i found the interview, and there is a link to it on this page if others want to listen to it:
      www.financialsense.com...
      thanks again!
      Jan 05 19:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation
      here's what you are missing wrt exxon:

      1) they are integrated and have the best efficiencies in the industry, meaning they can profit whether oil prices are high or low

      2) even though, as you mention, production was down year over year (but so was it at CVX, COP, and many other oil companies), they still produce 4 million barrels of oil a day. in an era where worldwide oil supply wont keep up with worldwide oil demand, that is a nice piece of the action to own.

      3) the companies management is very conservative, which is why their financials are simply impeccable (my only beef is the industry lagging dividend yield which is pathetic).

      4) long term, the price of oil is going to sky-rocket, and even if XOM's production declines, they are going to be printing money for decades.

      you cannot evaluate exxon properly unless you understand the realities of worldwide oil supply/demand, which is that within the next 10 years, supply will not keep up with demand. take this year for instance, even with oil at $145/barrel worldwide supply never got over 86 million bpd. in other words, even today, with full on worldwide economic activity, the industry struggled mightily. with depletion rates running between 6-7%, what's it going to be like 2 years from now? 5? 10?? think about it. how can a person NOT own exxon mobil with this economic reality staring ya in the face?
      Jan 05 19:25 pm |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 2 of 2)
      Brahm: thank you. i didn't mean to insinuate that all the iraqi oil contracts would go to western oil companies. that said, i'd be shocked if the majority don't. i might disagree with you that with US troops there securing the oil resources that the policy won't be skewed a bit, but time will tell. that said, regardless of who gets the contracts, increasing iraqi oil production to the world markets benefits the US more than anyone else (since we suck up 25% of world oil production and love our SUV's, well, at least some do).
      totally agree with you on europe. in fact, i have to give n. sarkozy of france some credit when he (the first european leader) finally called BS on bush's agenda of deploying the "defensive missile shield" in europe which antagonized russia so badly (supposedly they are too protect europe from iraqi WMDs.....errrr...sorry :) .....iranian nuke missiles). narkozy said it won't happen, and besides it doesn't work. this is a big indication when the acting head of the EU says something that blunt to the US president...and you know germany supports that position as well.

      the proclaimer: thanks. wrt gold, it cannot be manipulated if i own it and it is buried in my backyard. name me another financial asset like that? that's why gold is, well, gold. oil will someday be much more valuable, but who can store it securely (other than the SPR)? i keep waiting for you to start your new business on your proclamation...let me know when i can purchase a unit...

      issac the great: yeah, it's a good book. i have probably spent a good hour or two just looking at the maps on the inside front and back covers. fascinating area of the world, and so many complicated players. i will check out charles K., whom i have never heard of before. wrt israel, my opinion is that US/Israeli policy is almost guaranteeing the destruction of israel. just look at what has happened since rabin was assassinated. would any objective person believe israel is more secure today than if they had followed rabin's path? sad. very sad. so, israel levels the west bank on bush year 1, and they level the gaza strip on bush year 8. wonderful way to make peace huh? it's a failed strategy imho.

      nerfer: thanks for the compliments. wrt taliban, if your theory is correct, then how do you explain the courtship of the taliban leaders in houston by Unocal and other US big oil? the friendship of the taliban at that level was for one purpose and one purpose only: gaining a secured pathway for the central asian pipeline. you should read the book - perhaps it might sway your opinion. i do agree with you that the taliban was always scum...but the US has a long undistinguised record of supporting scum (taliban, sadam hussein, noriega, i could go on and on). and for those who said i never criticize clinton, it was during clinton's roost in the 90's that we supported the taliban, even after russia bailed.
      Jan 05 19:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 1 of 2)
      longoil: thank you and back at ya! yeah, the prize is a fascinating book and one of the best books i have ever read. as you mention, the thing with yergin is that he used to be a peak oil believer...then he got hit with prudoe bay and the north sea, and he bailed on it because big oil laughed at him. now, he apparently thinks the world is swimming in cheap oil, and he could not be more wrong.

      yeah, for bartering and such, i can't argue with your silver comments. that said, for storage of wealth... you can't beat gold, unless you can store a boat load of oil somewhere :)

      john s: drink some wine...it helps digest meat....

      long_on_oil: thanks for your compliment. please forward my energy policy document along with it will you? wrt the coins, i agree with you guys. that is why i am also a big fan of the 1/4 oz american eagles (gold). that said, as my article sometime ago said, these havent been available on apmex or kitco in months and months (i didn't check today, hope they don't make a liar out of me). however, as a storage of wealth, not sure you can beat 1oz gold coins.

      GMiki: thanks for that! i will google and see if i can catch the interview.

      geolog: thanks, and hny back at ya. thanks for your message...i'll investigate the techology further and perhaps get back to you.
      Jan 05 18:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • America Must Rebuild Domestic Battery Manufacturing Infrastructure
      your title is dead on. imagine what the $700 billion paulsen and bernanke have thrown at the "financial crisis" could have accomplished had it been thrown at:

      1) battery research, development, and manufacturing technology (similar to the Sematech organization in semiconductors)
      2) wind and solar electric generation
      3) building out the electrical grid infrastructure

      i can only hope the obama team "get it" and use their "stimulus package" in a much more useful way (i.e. the above 3 items) than the ridiculous paulsen and bernanke strategy (just more money to the bankers and wall streeters who put us in this deep hole).
      Dec 27 16:17 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance
      sorry, the above comment should have been Carter reduced US foreign oil imports by "5 million barrels per day", not "50%". typing too fast....
      Dec 27 16:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance
      1) Carter's policies reduced US oil imports by 50%, made the country aware of energy's ability to cripple our economy (as the Arabs did), and raised fuel economy standards for automobiles (just think where we would be today without that). to detract from Carter's work in this area (the best of any president's), and not to mention the oil-centric disaster that Bush has been wrt energy policy, is simply not objective. i repeat, it was the bush ethanol mandates that brought on food inflation, not the Carter tax subsidies (note the food inflation didn't really hit until recently as Bush's idiotic ethanol mandates kicked in). you cannot blame Carter's actions in the late 1970s for something that happened in 2008.
      2) the DOE publishes something like their prediction of vehicle sales in 2030?? come on John...anyone who has the slightest idea of oil supply/demand fundamentals (and the DOE has proven it hasn't the slightest clue), knows that these DOE estimates of vehicles sales is nothing but pure dreaming. the DOE has an oil centric bias, yet doesn't have a clue about oil supply/demand fundamentals. using their data is not only misleading, but dangerous. statistics, sure. prognostications about the future, F-
      3) i understand it's an article about investment ideas. but at the same time, listing investment choices in an area as specific as "alternative energy storage" without acknowledging the possible competition to those investment choices seem an omission to me. much of your analysis on batteries is good, and they will certainly be used in electric only and hybrid cars. however, the larger playing field of solar and wind energy array storage, well, i am not so sure batteries are the way to go. are you? do you think batteries, with the cost and capacity needed, will be the way to go to store energy from wind and solar for those times when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shinning? just curious.
      Dec 27 16:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance
      John: nice article and you had some important things to say. that said, i'd like to point out a few things:
      1) your implication was that the Carter ethanol tax credits were responsible for the recent food inflation. they were not. it was the bush ethanol *mandates* (i.e. mandates forcing the amounts of ethanol blended gasoline) that caused the huge disruptions in the food chain.
      2) the DOE has been dead wrong on every major energy policy affecting the US and the department should simply be shut down. presenting DOE data is a good way to be discredited. for instance, the DOE has been wrong on oil price predictions, supply/demand prognositications, and you yourself point out the lack of support for US produced natural gas transportation. DOE policy and predictions make it one of the most dangerous departments of the US government.
      3) i am very surprised an article on alternative energy storage didn't go into more detail on molten salt and electrolysis production of hydrogen. in my opinion (and i am still studying the matter) both these system are potentially more cost effective energy storage mediums for large wind and solar arrays than are batteries, as well as being more environmentally friendly.
      Dec 27 09:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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