Michael Fitzsimmons

Comment Stream

Michael Fitzsimmons picture
174
Profile Articles (46)
Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
    • Smells Good: The Case for Natural Gas
      thanks for the comments.
      elliot: i knew when i wrote the $700 billion comment that someone would point out the technically incorrect source of our imports. that said, my point was that oil is a global market and saudia arabia and russia are the two largest producers. the lack of a comprehensive US energy policy has led to huge inefficiencies, higher US oil consumption than necessary, and therefore higher prices - all of which have greatly benefited SA and russia. the falling dollar due to recent US fiscal policies have also played right into their hands.

      i realize that LNG has not caught on in the US, which i alluded to in the article. the point i was trying to make is that "IF" the US had a comprehensive energy policy, we would be (or at least SHOULD be) encouraging the greater use of natural gas in the transportation sector, granting licenses to construct LNG plants, and be building the infrastructure for greater use of LNG sourced nat gas. the magnitude of the energy crisis facing the US due to crude oil is such that we will need ALL alternate sources of energy - natural gas is a "natural". that said, if congress's questioning of the oil execs the other day was any indication...i won't hold my breath for a sane energy policy any time soon....
      May 28 11:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Manipulations Exposed
      Peak oil is real and here today. Your summary of the supply/demand statistics is most incomplete! I would urge you to do a more detailed study of:

      1) where the oil is produced
      2) where the oil is consumed
      3) depletion rates of existing elephant fields
      4) discovery rates of new elephant fields
      5) oil demand growth

      perhaps, if you consider these 5 points and do some due diligence, you will understand the true dynamics of the oil market today.
      May 27 09:39 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Peak Oil: While Washington Sleeps...
      rbblum: i agree. makes you wonder why population control isn't more on the "world governing" organization's agenda.

      shaggieman: thanks for the compliment. wrt iraq, as i said in one of my previous articles, if you were a US president, looking at the world globe as though it were a monopoly board, iraq was the ripest cherry to pick. so cheney & bush et all picked it. that said, from a military prespective (forgetting the moral questions involved....) it was handled amateurishly at best, which it why it has turned into such a cluster f*@k. that said, iraq has the most easily accessible and cheaply producible oil around. i am sure its reserves will play a large role in the coming years. as the oil major's CEO's said, there are two big problems: 1) security 2) contract security (meaning, they sign a deal and it is solid).

      fran: thanks, and i agree! one only had to watch CPSAN the last couple days to see our idiotic senators at work. jeez, it just pisses me off. like pickens said, all they care about is getting elected or re-elected. criminal. i think we should disband the current Congress and try them all for treason. start with the Secretary of Energy at the DOE. for a "department of energy" to be blind-sided by peak oil and its economic implications to the US is criminal, in my opinion.


      May 22 21:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • An Energy Policy That Makes Sense, Revisited
      MichaelM: can't say as i blame a Canadian for thinking that way. that said, my understanding is Canadian nat gas reserves are plenty enough to supply Canada as well as raising revenue by selling it to the US (similiar to the tar sands). as Canada is much better governed than the US, you will continue to enjoy the fruits of such a policy in terms of strength of the loonie, health care, etc. etc.
      May 22 10:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Peak Oil: While Washington Sleeps...
      thanks for your comments.

      JKC: yeah, i watched the testimony of the oil execs in Congress yesterday. if you ever wondered how clueless Congress is about energy, yesterday's performance would have convinced you. Grassey has corn on the head, and all of them wouldn't know peak oil if it hit em on the head. maudlin, like pickens, and me, is dead on. but DC ain't listening (or, more likely, they are listening but prefer to see oil be used as a mechanism for controlling the population. that would be *complete* control if we are not prepared for peak oil, and that appears to be their goal).

      steve - interesting idea.

      papagiki: thanks for your words. wrt investments, not countring distributions, over the past 1 yr:

      IEZ and FSESX have both gained about 36%
      XLE and FSENX have both gained about 30%

      i mention the fidelity investments because alot of people have 401k plans and these fidelity select funds dont have loads, have big distributions, high appreciation, and so are great choices for 401k's.

      May 22 07:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Sensitivities
      Yup, I have felt the same way. The only thing that confuses me more is that XOM, CVX, and COP haven't rallied strongly, or at least more strongly in the case of CVX and COP (XOM i think is still slightly down for the year!). For some reason, the skimpy crack margins on the refining side has been stated as the reason not to buy these stocks. At the same time, all three have been generating great income, cash flows, and increasing dividends. How people can value these stocks with such small P/E's in a market with oil at $127/barrel and few places to hide from it is quite astonishing.
      May 20 07:50 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Russian Energy and U.S. Implications
      The question isn't whether oil is finite or renewable, or even at what rate it is renewable. Economically, the question is simply can worldwide oil supply keep up with worldwide oil demand? An objective open-minded person would have to conclude, with oil at $127/barrel, up 50% this year, up 100% in 12 months, and up >5x over the last 6 years, that at least some people (who happen to have a whole lot of money), feel that the supply/demand balance may be an issue. Sure, the US dollar is an issue, but it's only down 50% in the last 6-7 years. Where did the other 4.5x come from if oil is so abundant and easily accessible? Well, it ain't no more. China, India, Russia, and the Middle East are sucking it up as fast as it is pumped. And, it's not like the total worldwide supply is growing that fast...just a lil bit the last couple years. Whether you're religious about peak-oil, or a non-peak oil believer, it doesn't take a genius to know that a country (the US) that uses 25% of the world's oil, and imports >60% of that (!) should do something about it - soon!

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      To simply state that oil is in abundance everywhere while a crisis is happening before your eyes is a bit foolish, don't you think?

      May 20 00:36 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Russian Energy and U.S. Implications
      sibi: interesting comments! wow...15% of roughly 10 million is 1.5 million barrels. that is a huge cushion. as far as the global warming goes, sounds like i should have left siberia out of that comment. however, would you agree that ice breakup in the arctic is leading to more oil & gas exploration, or no? thanks.
      May 19 13:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • ConocoPhillips' Price Breakthrough: Still a Bargain
      Couldn't have said it better myself. Mulva has proven to be one of the best oil execs out there. I still remember the pounding he took on Burlington by folks who said he paid too much. He said, "this deals makes money with nat gas at $5, and we expect it to rise in the near future". Bingo! It's trading at $11.20 today. I also like Mulva's transparency on issues like worldwide oil supply/demand and the environment. How does COP not trade over $110 in the next 6 months? My only regret is not buying more when it dipped into the low 70's back in Jan. What a friggin buy that was!
      May 19 11:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Donald Trump on Oil
      If the US doesnt adopt a comprehensive energy policy soon, the red line on your chart will keep its ascent and the blue line will decline as more and more people lose their jobs and their mortgages.

      The good thing about that episode of CNBC, was "the donald" got "trumped" by T. Boone Pickens who came on right after and, when asked by Kernen what he thought, said Trump "should stick to real estate." I mean, who you gonna believe on energy, Trump or Pickens? Pah-leeeze.
      May 18 23:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Dollar Falls on Lowest Consumer Sentiment in 28 Years
      grace: i will tell u the same thing i just wrote to fareed zakaria on his newsweek article when he quoted a poll saying 80% of americans think the country is going "in the wrong direction". he blamed it on some of the same things you did, but i think you are both missing the point. americans are so pessimistic because they have lost faith in their government. for 8 years we've had a bush led republican "government" which has failed to adopt a rational energy policy, failed to fix a tax policy that favors the ultra wealthy, failed to support the US dollar and run up the fiscal deficit(thus leading to inflation), and conducted a foreign policy that was rightly referred to by obama today as "bombastic". and that is putting it lightly. sure the housing market and high energy prices are playing a big role, but if middle class americans thought their government was at least on their side and could play a positive role (as opposed to a the negative one we have become accustomed to), the numbers would not be nearly this bad, IMHO.
      May 18 23:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Russian Energy and U.S. Implications
      thanks for the comments. some tit-for-tat:

      gale: if you click on the link "Here's a good start" in this article, it will take you to my suggested energy policy. i am sure in that policy mentions conservation and mass transit. i would disagree with Kunstler's conclusion, if indeed it is his conclusion, that it is too late to convert to alternatives. we have no choice but to do so unless we want to simply lay down and let peak oil win without even a fight. of course, presently, that is damn near what we are doing anyway ;)

      yank: wrt GSA, i agree that the financial "regulators" in the US have rigged the game for wall streeters. i guess it's not enough they get all the tax breaks. ever read "the shock doctrine" by naomi klein? i had to laugh during this latest "financial crisis" when paulsen comes out and says "our financial regulations are out-dated and we need to change them for the new world order" or something to that effect. yeah, regulations that have seen us through a depression, two world wars, etc. etc. and now they want to change them. get ready to bend over. then, the federal reserve takes over a PRIVATE publically traded investment firm (bear stearns). boy, if this is the new world order...we better call naomi and see what we should be doing about it (besides voting the current bums in charge out of office). it's not bad enough the current administration has bankrupted our treasury...now they want to go further and put everything on the back of the middle class taxpayer...let's bail out financial institutions, lenders, borrowers, let's bail out everyone and let the taxpayer (but not the wealthy taxpayers!) pay the tab. and these are supposedly "conservative republicans". what a joke. this is the biggest bunch of radicals in the history of US government.
      May 18 22:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF
      Possibly. That said, there aren't many oil services companies with PE's over 20, yet they are making net income hand-over-fist and growing their earnings at nice growth rates. What other sector of the market is doing this other than other oil and nat gas related investments? Financials? Consumer staples? Health Care? Nope. Energy is where the action is. For an historical reference, check out the oil services stock performance in the 1970's with that of the broad market. Now, that ended with the end of the OPEC embargo and oil prices fell dramatically. That said, that was a POLITICAL energy crisis. Today, we have a supply/demand driven energy crisis. Oil will never fall again like it did after the first OPEC embargo. IMHO.
      May 18 12:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Russian Energy and U.S. Implications
      Jack: appreciate your comments. that said, just because i am a proponent of nat gas vehicle transportation doesn't mean i think the price of nat gas will go down. i too believe it will increase, as peak oil will drive all sources of energy higher in price. what i do believe is that there are huge resources of natural gas available in the world, and the US will definitely need its share as oil field depletion rates as well as demand both increase going forward. with respect to the infrastructure for nat gas, i believe i mentioned in the article that it is not currently sufficient. that said, natural gas is available in many home across the US today. that is why i mentioned Fuelmakers "Phill" device and the need for Honda and Fuelmaker to team up and offer a complete solution, complete with Honda having 24-hour per/day refueling support.

      As you guys are aware, i totally support plug-in hybrids and totally electric transportation. However, I continue to believe that the energy crisis facing us will require ALL available non-gasoline alternatives. You are seeing the front wave of peak oil affects in the economy today: inflation, falling US dollar, financial stress in almost every sector, and extreme consumer discomfort. Imagine what will happen by 2010. The US has waited so long to adopt a sane energy policy, that we need to adopt, embrace, and incentivize ALL non gasoline powered internal combustion engine solutions. Please read my entire energy policy:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      If you agree, send it to your congress person and senator. If you don't agree, please send me feedback to consider as I update this policy with feedback from time to time. Thanks.
      May 18 12:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • What I'm Reading This Week: Commodities, Inflation and BRICs
      The trend is the US dollar is reversible only if the President and Congress acknowledge peak oil. For the country that uses 1/4 of the world's oil production (and imports 65% of it) to not even have a comprehensive energy policy in spite of $126/barrel oil is simply criminal. Solution here:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      Worldwide investors will not invest in the US dollar until they see the US take prudent steps to prepare and protect the American economy from the realities of peak oil. Until then, oil will continue to replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice.
      May 18 10:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

Michael Fitzsimmons is a Top 100 Commentor

  • 303 Comments, 61 , 24
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 37