Michael Fitzsimmons

Comment Stream

Michael Fitzsimmons picture
174
Profile Articles (46)
Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      peter: the 5 US carrier fleets don't necessarily support your opinion, just that bush continues his military fanaticism. your opinion that bush "gave Georgia to Russia" assumes that the US actually held Georgia in any fashion to begin with and could have in any way prevented Russian from taking their former state back. the Russian invasion quickly showed that this too was not the case. just admit it, the US was caught completely off guard because of their "focus" on iraq at the detriment of everything else going on in the world.
      Aug 16 15:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      obviously i meant "Georgia joining NATO"..not Russia.
      Aug 16 14:53 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      petersterling: first you say "America gave Georgia to the Russians 6 months ago in return for Russia looking the other way when we roll over Iran". then, further down you say: "There is a great fear that Russia and China may oppose the naval and air/land blockade of Iran." I find these statements very inconsistent. Russia was adamantly opposed to US actions in Iraq. Bush has been proping up the Georgian President with supplies, advisors, cash, and support for Russia joining NATO. this was part of the problem! The Georgian President got the big head (just like all US puppets...shah of iran, sadaam hussein, noreiga, on and on and on), got too beligerent, and Russia finally said enough is enough and pulled a fast one on the opening day of the Olympics. Bush responds with Poland "star wars" agreement. So, I doubt seriously Bush and Putin have agreements on Iran. I do think Bush wants to go into Iran because he's a moron and can't foresee the devasting consequences - to the US, the world, and Israel - which is where DEBKA is published if i am not mistaken. I have wrote many times how the US/Israeli policy to secure Israel is almost assuring the destruction of Israel in the long run. But it all goes back to oil and natural gas - and Russia has plenty of both. the US responses to 9/11, $145/barrel oil, the economic recession, the middle east have all been the incorrect responses and have simply made the US weaker while strengthening our foes like Russia, Venezuela, the Middle Eastern countries, etc. etc. The logical response to all these problems, and the common sense response from both a US security persepective and an economic perspective is a comprehensive, long-term, strategic energy policy:
      thefitzman.blogspot.co...
      Period. Military gamesmanship to steal oil will simply not be effective in the long run. The US is going bankrupt, and the amount of oil we are importing is simply too large. The only way the US remains a sovereign, democratic, capitalistic nation is to solve the "oil problem". But we are not doing so, and we are approaching a fascist government very reminiscient to pre WW2 Germany. the government is taking over the mortgage, banking, and financial industries while over-reaching militarily. the press pours out propaganda, and wealth is being concentrated very rapidly into the hands of a very few industrialists while the middle class is shrinking just as rapidly. right wing propagandists like rush limbaugh and larry kudlow pry on the minds on the uneducated and unaware to grease the skids of this move to fascism. striking iran will simply cause more economic dislocation in a world economy which is already reeling from the results of US "policy". these economic dislocations will cause yet more weakness to the middle class which will make it even easier for the fascists in control of the US governent to continue their agenda. it's ironic that US/Israeli "policy" in the middle east serve the nwo-fascists when it was the Jews who suffered most from German fascism. what a world.
      Aug 16 14:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      longoil: you bring up a great point about the peak oil argument. those who pooh-pooh it never seem to have a response when i bring up the canadian oil sands cost of production, or, the fact that saudi arabia is currently in the midst of the largest industrial project in the history of the earth, which includes pumping sea water 200 miles so then can jam it into the earth and get, you guessed it, heavy crude. if oil is so plentiful and available, why would the saudi's be doing this? and this from the country that the cheap oil guys say has the magical "spigot" that is supposed to be available to keep oil prices down. it's simply not even a logical argument at this point.

      david white: you are obviously correct that the commodity trades are being unwound. i also agree it is a temporary situation. i try to follow all the markets, but i focus on the oil, precious metals, and inflation as i believe those will be the dominant themes of the future. i just can't get excited about retail or autos or consumer discretionaries or financials in a market and economy like this. so, i basically disregard all the talking heads on CNBC when it comes to these sectors. perhaps i shouldn't....but until i see a fundamental solution to the "oil problem", i doubt i will change my perspective. interesting that everyone is celebrating $112/barrel oil when only 18 months ago that price would have been considered disastrous...what has changed other than psychology and the propagandists on TV?

      wizard: oh, i definitely agree both parties in Congress are to blame. just the mere fact that each party in the last 20 years has had control of the presidency and both houses of Congress yet nothing wrt a REAL energy policy was accomplished. i agree using the SPR is ignorant. i agree that we should be drilling off-shore. there is just too much money being moved around under the table by the lobbyists and our dishonest politicians to make the obvious, common sense changes that we so badly need. i mean none of it is rocket science.
      Aug 15 13:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      fran: well, i am working the issue the best i can. if you think i "accept the status quo", perhaps you need to re-read my Seeking Alpha articles once more, next time paying a bit more attention. the reason people participate by commenting on articles like this is because they, in part, aren't accepting of the status quo and are very frustrated by the state of things. it's a release vent. your comment to contact our representatives and leaders is a good one. but calling us "children" and "accepting the status quo" is a bit over the top, don't you think? you accuse us of pissing here in our ;ittle sandpit, but what have you yourself done but pull down your pants and do the same? get real with yourself, and come down off your high horse.
      Aug 14 22:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      thanks all - i'm back to comment on the comments :)

      johns. - yes it was, and it points to yet another US failure in foreign policy (wrt our backing of georgia in such an antagonistic way to russia)

      longoil - yup, russia's an energy giant with oil production rivaling the saudis and huge nat gas reserves. not sure how important the baltics are from an energy perspective - they may not be worth the trouble. bottom line is, US energy policy (ie. the lack thereof) strengthens russia the same way it strengthens saudi, iraq, iran, venezuela, etc. etc. of those, obviously russia is the bigger threat. too bad bush didn't see this when he "gazed into Putin's eyes".

      leh: i agree bush is a moron, unfortunately for the US and the world he and cheney haven't been "disengaged"... i am sure he didn't leave China cause the US can't do anything in georgia anyway. france and the EU, who are on the receiving end of the pipeline's oil, lost no time sending Sarkozy over to the region to talk to both sides....

      stuytown: exactly! that is why the rest of the world simply laughs off US objections to the "violence by Russia". they just look at what the US has done in iraq and think, what hypocrits.

      bowman711: as powerful as the bush cartel are, i don't think they can control oil prices as fully as they would like by the mere fact that the majority of it is being pumped by nationalized sources like russia, venezuela, etc.

      jjason: i never said oil prices wouldn't go lower, and they could even fall below $100. what i AM saying is that long term, worldwide oil supply won't keep up with worldwide oil demand, and the price will respond accordingly. interesting that US inventories appear to be tightening up even as the price falls...

      bbrad: thanks, check's in the mail

      GMiki: i agree. not so sure about peak. supply may actually go up in the next few years, but not nearly as much as demand. regardless, the argument isnt so much are we at the absolute peak, but what should a country that imports 70% of its oil do when we are aware that oil can either a) peak or b) supply not keep up with demand. the only choice we have is a comprehensive long-term energy policy.

      User93017(Jeff): thanks. there is a way, on both Seeking Alpha and google's blog to subscribe to any user you chose, with email alerts and the like. i'll let you do it so you can control your own destiny.

      wizard: i agree it borders on treason! but when your leader arranges airplane flights for saudi arabian 9/11 conspirators during an airspace lockdown (denies it, then admits it), outs a CIA agent, and politicizes the justice department ... all that.... and congress does nothing no special prosecutor, no investigation...the i doubt seriously anyone will hold the administration accoutable for the energy debacle. glad to hear you got an energy policy in the congressional record! perhaps you can call some friends and get them to view mine or discuss the issue with you. good luck.

      issactheterrible: well, i agree with you, and i think the buying opportunity for energy stocks is now. it might not be the bottom of this sell off, but i would start buying in incremental fashion. unfortunately, i also agree that recent evidence would prove your assumption that we won't respond to peak oil properly to be correct. notice the lack of support for pickens, or the WSJ not wanting to print a strategic, long-term, comprehensive energy policy even as Wall Street investments returns (S&P500 has averaged a 2.8% annual return the last 10 years) show the economic impact of an addiction to 70% imported oil.

      samadams: thanks, and no i haven't read the book, but thanks for mentioning it to me because i heard about it, forgot the title, and want to get it for my dad for his birthday (i will read it too). thanks!

      vonAlendorf: that is why an alternative to the internal combustion engine, and the way to power it, is a central theme in my energy policy.

      dr.duru: thanks, you get a check in the mail too.

      frfryer: it is absolutely a fact the US cannot drill its way out of the "oil problem". that said, every bit helps and the magnitude of the energy problem is such that the economic future of the country is in grave danger. with that staring us in the face (and the social implications thereof...), i think it's worth it to drill off-shore. besides, off-shore drilling has become much much safer in the past couple decades from an environmental perspective. no leaks or spills in hurricanes katrina and rita from offshore rigs is pretty impressive, no?

      frfryer: i agree that tax breaks to oil should stop. at the same time, windfall profits taxes are a bad idea!! i mean, if you are hungry, why tax the gardener? ridiculous.

      LazyAl: yeah, it cut me. but long term, i will heal and be stronger :)

      raybay: yup, oil services are the place to be for a long-term investors. i picked up a lil PBR myself recently (and of course it then went down a point). am i worried? not at all (unless the US invades Brazil for the reserves...). i still remember the interview i saw on TV of a brazilian asked what he thought about PetroBras' big oil finds. he said, "i wish they'd quit finding oil down here, bush will invade us soon!".


      Aug 14 16:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Just How Correlated Are Oil and Equities?
      Why did you not include the 1970's data in your work?
      The price of oil is the single biggest economic factor in the US considering we import 70% of it. The rise in oil of the past decade is the single biggest reason the S&P has averaged an enemic 2.8% annual return during that time.
      Aug 14 09:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan
      As good as Boone Pickens' plan is, and I fully support it, if Pickens really believes in peak oil, then he is also aware that the only solution is a much more comprehensive, long-term, strategic energy policy:

      thefitzman.blogspot.co...

      Pickens' plan is a great step in the right direction, but the magnitude of the "oil problem" is so large much more comprehensive steps need to be taken. Meantime, Washington sleeps.....
      Aug 14 09:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      bzz24: if you think Putin cares about the 70,000 ethnic russians more than he does the oil pipeline, you are naive.
      1. agreed
      2. agreed
      3. i don't know about this
      4. agreed
      5. not sure
      all that said, what does this have to do with my article except to support my point of view?
      wrt energy policy, perhaps you did not read mine as that is exactly what i am saying!
      please leave my grandparents out of this discussion as you don't have a friggin clue, ok? and i would love to ask them what they think, but they are no longer around to ask, so, bug off on this will ya?
      your debating skills are lacking though, because you simply gave up on your original points once i pointed out how incorrect they were. so, giving up on the original argument is basically conceeding that you were wrong to begin with.
      Aug 13 09:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Oil Will Only Fall So Far
      bbzz24: if i agreed with washington's viewpoint as you accuse, then why doesn't washington adopt a real long-term strategic energy policy? if i agreed with washington, then why would i have pointed out that the "star wars" strategy wrt russia was stupid? i'd rather know and use one language correctly then know 3 and not understand any of them.

      bbzzz24: wrt the article you reference, do you really believe russia could not have taken out the pipeline if they wanted to? jeez man, THINK. they are sending a message. they are saying that they COULD take out the pipeline any time they wanted to.

      bbzz24: i never blamed the pipeline outage on russia, that was your interpretation. what i AM saying is that russian troops are on the ground in georgia and have the POTENTIAL to control the pipeline any time they want. there is a difference, but apparently geopolitical nuances are not your specialty.
      Aug 13 08:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
      options: good point -you're probably right!

      User217130: what is "ME geopolitical issues" and why does an oil correction of 20% after rising 500% mean that the theory is incorrect? oil is still over $100/barrel...nigeria is blowing up pipelines...one in turkey went up...iraq is still unstable...russia is at war in the caspian sea area and worldwide supply/demand is the tightest ever. please explain your viewpoint with more substance and maybe you can convince me i am wrong. it will take more than a sentence though....
      Aug 10 22:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors
      mekats: they are recommendations going forward. you seem to believe the energy stocks are down alot more this year than the S&P500 or the DJIA or some other "diversified"... equity play. they aren't. my point is, the fundamentals behind oil and energy haven't changed to be bearish, if anything, i believe they are more bullish now than at the start of the year. COP is down less than the S&P this year, as is vanguard energy. i think it will be helpful if you got something like barrons, the WSJ, or investors daily and looked at the YTD, 5yr, and 10yr returns to compare the investments.
      Aug 10 22:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors
      longoil: thanks!

      LazyAl: i'm not sure we have 30 years. the CEO's of COP, RDS, and Hess have all thrown out the date 2015 as the timeframe for when worldwide oil supply won't keep up with demand. that's only 7 years away. if the US economy is in the ditch now, with oil at $120, imagine what will happen when oil and gasoline become scarce and shortages arise? the price of oil will skyrocket, and the economy, currency, stock market, and social fabric of the US will shatter. that is why i am such a proponet of a comprehensive long-term energy policy. history shows that no matter how much wealth a person gathers, if their country, currency, and economy go down the tubes, everyone goes down the tube....

      our only hope:
      thefitzman.blogspot.co...

      Perceptions: no, my argument is a bit more sophisticated than that. worldwide oil supply won't be able to keep up with worldwide demand. therefore, the margin between the two has been shrinking, and therefore the price increased. add to that issue the 50% drop in the US currency, which oil is priced in, due to the insane Bush economic policies and you have another oil kicker. add to that the risk premium due to the oil war and you have another factor. add to that china and india competing for the same oil resources and you have another factor. wasn't all this in the article?

      options: i agree we need more nukes too. financing of nuclear plants is necessary because of the large up-front cost and the long-term pay-off (decades of utility bills). i'd rather see the government finance nuclear plants than start oil wars - at least we'd have something concrete at the end of the day. i also wish they'd help finance the nat gas pipeline from alaska and western canada to the lower 48. the US could have done both for the money (not to mention lives) we've wasted in Iraq, plus, they could have put 50,000,000 hybrids on US highways. all for the cost of Iraq. what a waste huh? i agree GE is a good energy play. nukes, wind, and compressors and handlers for LNG and the oil industry. they are wonderfully positioned in energy. unfortunately, they have had large exposures to the financing and consumer markets, which they are now addressing. once this is out of the way, the stock should start to perform, which it hasnt done for years. wrt nuclear, i'm sure iran would love to have a French or American designed nuclear plant, but of course the sanctions prevent that. so, they go shopping elsewhere. i read the russian plant you speak of was the same exact design as the chernobyl plant :O
      Aug 07 09:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Has Exxon Topped?
      Please read my recent articles on oil fundamentals:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      How does one conclude that Exxon has hit its all-time peak when the fundamentals for oil are so strong, and Exxon produces 4 million barrels a day? Exxon will be a strong performer for years to come. My only beef with Exxon is their skimpy non-competitive dividend, which is lowest in class despite the best financial sheet in the business and net profits that are simply astounding. Their management should get dinged big-time on their dividend policy. That said, you will see Exxon over $100/share within the next 12 months...along with COP and CVX. The fundamentals are just too strong, especially the fact that America is still in "oil-denial" and hasn't adopted a sane, comprehensive, long-term energy policy. As long at the world's largest consumer ignores the realities of worldwide oil supply/demand, oil will continue to move higher in the coming year. Spectacularly higher I fear.
      Aug 07 08:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Fitch Increasingly Downgrades Non-Subprime [Housing Tracker]
      Fitch, Moody's, and S&P should all be put out of the ratings business for their complicity in rating junk debt as "AAA". After all, this was THE mechanism which put us in the financial crisis that we are in. Of course, with our lousy government, nothing at all was done. So, the US dollar keeps sinking and the government goes farther into debt as they bail out the Wall Streeters by exchanging tax-payer Treasuries for toxic waste debt. What a country (not).
      Aug 06 21:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

Michael Fitzsimmons is a Top 100 Commentor

  • 303 Comments, 62 , 24
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 38