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Light the Way with LDK

User JoeJoe makes an interesting point that LDK's wafer costs are too high and the average ASP has to drop and therefore to make money LDK has to cut its costs down quite dramatically. If that is true WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND is how did LDK pre-sell all their inventory for 2008 and 2009 and sold 50% of 2010 and every day it seems like there is a new company signing yet another contract with LDK for wafers. On top of all this LDK raised guidance not lowered it and has issued a forward looking GM points to incremental improvement (Author of this article is far more bullish on GM than LDK). The fear the marketplace has had is a decrease in GM and even signs of stabilizing GM will be seen as a plus.

User JoeJoe -- something is not kosher here. You can't pre-sell inventory and sign more customers on every day if you are not price competitive. What gives Mr. JoeJoe? All these companies that are signing contracts with LDK (this includes BP, GE, Sharp and recently Hyundai) are all part of a giant consipracy.Is that your theory?
Sep 01 19:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Light the Way with LDK

This article is great and so are the followup comments.

In a negative section of the TSC review of LDK they note both the margin erosion and poor debt management and a less-than-desirable quick ratio (which indicates a setupwhere short term cash crunch may happen). I am not worried about margin erosion given the new plants that will soon come online (Read article) but I am worried about short term cash management. Does LDK have all the cash it needs to expand, supply its many many customers with many many contracts? If it needs capital would LDK get it and if so the fact that is seeking capital look negative on the stock front?

Sep 01 13:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Big Lots: Good Report, Adverse Reaction

This is very discouraging. I lost my behind in MA wherein even though MA came out with stellar results, raised guidance, the stock got hammered. The same with PriceLine where beat the Q and raised guidance and the stock got hammered. Apparently, they only grew 80% and not 100% in their European arm! It seems the only way to make money in this market is to buy and hold good stocks and hope that they will do well in the long run and get recognized for their merits.
Aug 26 16:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why Visa Got Spanked

Everyone here agrees V is a long term winner. The debate is about the short term. The short term is continuously influenced by a number of macro economic variables such as the price of oil, leading economic growth indicators, inflation, the credit and housing situation, dollar's strength or weakness, etc. V more than others is influenced by these variables. Over the last several days a lot of these macro indicators have changed to the upside. What this means is that V Winner may turn out to be right even though he would off in his timeframe by a bit.

If the macro economic variables maintain their positive stride we could still see V at a hundred dollar by the end of this year.
Aug 09 17:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Priceline and Visa: Two Stocks To Buy Now

I don't think the traders argue that V, MA and PCLN are good stocks. They just don't think they are worth the current prices given the macro variables. Once these variables improve these stocks will attain their correct price points.
Aug 08 02:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Whole Foods Down in Sluggish Economy, but Valuation Is Compelling

You must be kidding! For a company that failed the earnings test by a mile and issued severely reduced forecast you want the stock to double to be fair in value! Dream on! You might see single digits here before there is any recovery.
Aug 06 23:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Priceline: Down 17% on Good Earnings

Not rubbing it in but look what happend to MA (Mastercard). Stellar quarter and the management upped guidance but the stock got taken to the woodshed. If MA's post earnings decline is any indication PCLN has quite a long ways to go!!!
Aug 06 23:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Priceline: Down 17% on Good Earnings

One more thing. Traders don't believe that Priceline's "Name your price!" is defensible and it is just a matter of time before competitors mimic and do a one-up on Priceline. Where does that leave Priceline? A stock that is facing headwinds, deterriorating economic conditions and a competititive barrier that may soon be torn apart.
Aug 06 23:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Priceline: Down 17% on Good Earnings

Priceline was trading at a rich P/E.

Traders don't believe that Priceline can keep up its growth momentum. Saying it is one thing but traders don't believe Priceline can walk the talk. In other words traders have little faith in Priceline's capability to deliver the promised growth. And that is why Priceline is down.

I think it is wrong to compare to Priceline to the beaten down Airlines. They are beaten down so much there is some room for an upward bounce.

Traders appear to believe that given the circumstances, the headwinds, and their own belief that Priceline won't be able to deliver -- they have driven Priceline is down. Where is the landing price for the stock? I happen to think it is in the mid 80's.
Aug 06 23:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Does Visa's Beat Bode Well for MasterCard?

No, no luck if you are hoping for a miss from MA so that you can buy more shares. On the contrary you have to wonder if Visa can do this well just how well will MA do????? I predict a super beat.
Jul 31 01:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Credit Card Breakdown: AmEx Disappoints, as Predicted

I am not worried about MA beating the results handily.

I am worried about what they will say on a going-forward basis. Just a couple of months back MA management came out and took the highest analysts eps number and called it low and increased guidance! The stock shot to 300+ and the shorties came out driving it to current levels. The shorties don't believe that MA growth can be sustained and that the macroeconomic environment will eventually start affecting them.

As pointed out in above posts there is a fundamental lack of understanding of the dynamism of developing countries where the populations largely operate using cash and the massive switch that is happening to MA and Visa issued plastic. So even with a cloudy macroeconomic situation one would argue that more and more cards are being issues in these developing countries and more and more transactions are moving to plastic from cash.

Comments welcome!
Jul 26 16:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Citi Makes Google 'Top Internet Pick'

$4.73 "silightly ahead" of $4.27/ share...?

Did you mean to say $4.72/share?
Jun 30 20:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Barron's Banks on $100 Oil

On a per capita basis an American consumes 52 barrels of oil a year -- the highest in the world. Indians consume 1 barrel per person per year and China 2 barrels per person per year.

If the U.S. consumer on the average cuts his consumption by 2% that is equal to 1 (appx) barrel of oil per person per year. That frees up about 250 million barrels of oil per year.

It is the math above that pundits forecast when talking about China and India's demand increase. When the U.S. consumer cuts his consumption the Saudis will choke in their sleep. $100/barrel oil is not optimistic talk -- it is a reality that will happen.
Jun 24 19:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Can a $100 Million Home Be an Investment?

Oh, c'mon! Do you expect U.S. real estate market to be in a slump 10 years from now? What if we are on an economic upswing and there is plenty of money in the economy then the same $100 m house could go for a price much north of what the Russian paid for. We have this seen happen again and again it is almost amusing to read articles like this.
Jun 21 11:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Financial Fears Sweeping the Globe

Wow, nice article and an outstanding contrarian thinking response by Gabe B.

I think the outcome lies inbetween these two very different outlooks. I would almost agree with Gabe but for one variable -- high energy prices. I believe high energy prices to be a destructive phenomenon. If the back of oil is broken I am more likely to agree with Gabe's scenario. However, if oil continues to rise and then something unthinkable happens (such as a full blown conflict between Iran and Israel) then the RBS scenario seems more likely.
Jun 21 11:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Jim Cramer's Picks -
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Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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