andrewh10

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  • Of Russia and Black Swans
    Roger I expect you to producte something better than this zero value babble. Take a stance, Russia looks interesting and the valuations are good if Putin doesn't scare every foreign investor away. It all depends whether you believe Commodities are just pulling back getting primed for a huge move up in the following years or if you take the stance that they have peaked. I'm in the first camp.
    Aug 11 16:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Replacement Candidates for David Merkel's Portfolio: From AA to ZZ
    If that is your replacement list can we see the rest of what you currently own. At first glance it seems like you may toss the majority of your energy, financials, and tech holdings. Can we get a sector percentage to give some clarification? Here I will make your task much easier, stocks on your list I would hang on to would include: AA, AYR, BDK, BKS, CBI, CMI, COMS, CPB, CSCO, DD, DRYS, DUK, FCX, FTO, HELE, HNZ, HOC, HON, IPSU, IR, JCI, KCI, KMX, NVS, OSK, PAYX, PPC, PPG, PRU, RTN, SNY, TSO, TTC, TXT, VE, VZ, WAG, WY.
    Jul 10 05:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Take Out Chinese - Cramer's Lightning Round (6/12/08)
    Cramer continues to bash IP but he was pounding the table on WY at 65. This type of market chews up and spits out momentum traders who only chase price. I'm sorry to say hes just full of hot air and fluff these days. Perhaps he needs some better interns to give him ideas.
    Jun 17 22:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barnes & Noble's Earnings Call from a Borders Investor's Perspective
    Obviously Todd is talking his book because of his BGP position which surprises me to see him involved in such a speculative trade. I would tend to think that Bill Ackerman at Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. is still very confident in Riggio and the underlying business model. BKS could gobble up BGP here or wait for their deteriorating financial condition to worsen a bit but that does increase the possibility of another firm competing for the goods. Eventually his positions will turn into one holding at the right price. BKS seems very attractively priced at these levels, I would not even be shocked if they get taken private. His stake speaks volumes BKS - 6,540,451 09/17/07 10.10 and BGP - 10,597,880 03/31/08 18.04
    May 25 22:38 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barnes & Noble's Earnings Call from a Borders Investor's Perspective
    Obviously Todd is talking his book because of his BGP position which surprises me to see him involved in such a speculative trade. I would tend to think that Bill Ackerman at Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. is still very confident in Riggio and the underlying business model. BKS could gobble up BGP here or wait for their deteriorating financial condition to worsen a bit but that does increase the possibility of another firm competing for the goods. Eventually his positions will turn into one holding at the right price. BKS seems very attractively priced at these levels, I would not even be shocked if they get taken private. His stake speaks volumes BKS - 6,540,451 09/17/07 10.10 and BGP - 10,597,880 03/31/08 18.04
    May 25 22:38 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Recent Oil Spike: 'Irrational Exuberance'?
    The head of XOM and other major oil corporations have also voiced their opinions that oil is mispriced and should fall into the $40-80 range. Why do you think XOM has been putting all their cash to work buying back shares instead of exploring at these prices. There is an enormous amount of money to be made in oil on the way up and back down again. The recent pricing mania is not rational based on the real supply data and the current demand. There are a lot of huge players behind the scene at work here much larger than Mr. Boone Pickens. We will probably see some hedge funds get it wrong and go bust like Amaranth did when they miscalculated natty gas. Anyway I tend to agree most with the thesis in the book, A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World by Peter Tertzakian.
    May 22 23:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Should We Force a Housing Bottom?
    Isn’t it frustrating listening to all the whining by homeowners that prices have declined a little? I sure am sick of it, anyone who thought that housing was an asset class which never declined had a bad case of wishful thinking. It will take time for the US housing market to bottom these things do not happen overnight since prices appreciated so much over a short period of time. Most real estate analysts agree that the general the US retail housing market has about 10-30% further to drop indicating some kind of bottom in the latter stage of 2008 or early 2009. However, if certain areas are not correcting it could delay the whole process to 2010 and beyond depending on how the slowdown/recession plays out. The housing bubble was caused by low interest rates and massive leverage which was the result of Mr. Greenspan so called legacy interest rate policy. Ben Bernanke, another self proclaimed genius is aiding another bubble in commodities by lowering the heck out of interest rates again. The FED has sold out to politics many years ago and it’s a shame how they are bailing out the banking sector. The FED is the perpetrator of all these modern day financial bubbles. We need to let the financial markets rule themselves by deciding which firms should go bust.
    May 10 22:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners
    HTE is an interesting story but you forgot to mention what the implications are if they decide not to be a trust going forward (you will lose some of the yield) The stock is definitely being mixed in with the other refiners such as VLO, TSO, SUN, FTO because of the pressure on the crack spread. However, it has held up due to the natural gas component of the business. The big question for these refiners is where does the price of oil reverse or correct. The recent semi parabolic rise is mostly based on speculation and hopefully corrects in the near future to sub 100 oil. Of course much depends on the strengthening of the US dollar, lets hope for those rate hikes in the Fall.
    May 06 10:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why I'm Leery of Monster
    Looks like I was right...again but no need to pat myself on the shoulder right? I do not believe its a screaming buy here though.
    May 01 10:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • American Water Works IPO Analysis: Just an Exit Strategy for Parent Company RWE
    Very nice analysis on the AWK IPO. I passed on it as well but it could become attractive in the teens when the yield would be higher. There is no need to take the debt risk exposure now.
    Apr 30 19:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • I-Bank Execs: Read My Lips... No New Capital
    Lies, lies, and more lies out of the mouths of most financial CEOs these days regarding further capital raising and increased dilution. Even the foreign sovereign wealth funds coming in to fleece America’s so-called finest assets are finding themselves buying flawed diamonds because the balance sheets are not really what they thought they were. The backdoor deals going on now to desperately raise cash at C, MER, LEH, BX, and many others are quite disturbing. Why should the equity be rewarded in this type of situation? Wall Street always tries to sell and disguise as for the many talking head analysts like Richard Bove at Punk Ziegel who have been ringing bells saying time to buy financials. I disagree and think we are in store for some more pain in the financial sector especially the banking industry. It seems they have entered a new ball game but they are still playing by the old rules. We need to see more of the flawed and mismanaged firms like BSC disappear (bankruptcies are a natural way of taking out the trash and refreshing it with new companies) and only after that period will there be some nice buying opportunities. Many folks are bidding up the banks because of the favorable FED actions but this very positive low interest rate environment is about to get more difficult going out a few years.
    Apr 30 14:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Bill Miller Losing His Touch?
    Bill Miller has seemed to have got caught drinking his own cool-aid by averaging down on toxic financials like CFC and BSC. The bubble of searching for extra yield over the last decade through financials is now over and its times like these where the firms have to pay the piper. We will be in the end game for quite a while as these firms now cut down to the bare bones (layoff massive amounts of employees, desperately try to raise money, cut dividends). Unfortunately socialist FED policies will make matters worse in the future. The underlying b/s risk as well as the dilution situation makes a good reason to avoid the sector for awhile (6-12months). It might be tempting to buy banks now because they appear to be inexpensive on the surface (not yet from a pure book to value approach though) but in fact they should get a lot less expensive going forward. Even though these hot heads like Richard Bove at Punk Ziegel say load the boat. We have not even seen the first wave of chapter 11’s yet. Caveat Emptor
    Apr 28 17:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why I'm Leery of Monster
    I disagree with his analysis and believe most of the pain is priced into the equity. His timing for writing this piece is uncanny and he is most likely a net short. MNST's balance sheet is rock solid and their cash flows are strong. Even though the employment industry has been in a correction (or recession whatever you call it) for over the last 8 months they still have decent pricing power because they are the biggest player out there. MSFT is making strong ways into this arena with increased ownership in CareerBuilder and HotJobs, which bodes well for the long term horizon. We need not speculate when GOOG will need to have its finger in one of the pies. The buyout potential is real and could be getting very ripe. The market cap has shrunk to a little less than 3B and they have had some internal problems. However, the shorts have been able to manipulate the story here. MNST has increased its exposure to important international areas of growth namely China and India. Only time will tell but I doubt you have much downside left here and MNST will be around just like RHI and MAN. Could it go to 15 perhaps but it sure as heck would not stay there for long based on the cash flows. I suspect the stock actually heads up to 25-30 in the near term.
    Apr 21 10:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why New Oil Price Highs?
    Nicely put e2800 and interesting article by Hamilton which is dead on target in my opinion. The FED must put a stop on lowering rates here otherwise the consequences will only lead us to discussing how much of our economy is going to look like Japan's over the last lost decade. I do not subscribe to the Peak oil theory and the $20- $40 risk premium on a barrel of oil is absurd. Most energy analysts would agree with me that oil will be headed back to more reasonable levels say $80-90 in the near term. Slower economic growth in the US and Worldwide leads to lower prices. The recent boom in price is very much do to speculation and technical analysis, it is not based on supply on a demand what so ever. In fact I bet the Fed might have to bring back a Volker type character in order to raise rates quickly in the later part of 08 and 09. Afterwards, commodities prices will take care of themselves like they always do and return back to the mean.
    Apr 19 00:38 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Citigroup's Flush
    I meant Travelers Group in the above comment. For the record I am not a Whitney fan, I just think the articles reasoning for a long term position is rather dubious. Anyone looking at the fundamentals would likely agree. Heck even JPM said C was the short play of the year in 2008, a bold prediction several months ago which turned out to be very accurate. However, if you look at the data the short position in C has dramatically declined thus you have the recent short covering rally. The point being why buy an under performing injured bank with plenty of luggage in a relatively good environment for the industry considering Fed policy and the yield curve when you can own something better with proven management. My gut tells me rates will not stay this low for long and the banks will face some stronger headwinds in the near future.
    Apr 18 23:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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