Alphameister

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    • S&P 500's Loss Can Be Your Gain
      Excellent evaluation of one of the better buys in a very undervalued group. I also like ATW and NE. Rates for deep-water rigs remain near peaks and are well above year-ago levels. Pricing of the stocks in this sector is absurd.
      Jan 07 11:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?
      I agreed with your December 8th post and I think you are on the right track currently. Many of us know that there will be a huge long-term price to be paid for past sins of excessive leveraging and much of that price is now being paid, but some part of that payback can be postponed as we've seen so often in past cycles. With the Fed flooding the economy with liquidity and an Obama administration primed to prime the pump with massive fiscal stimulus, it isn't hard to envision a forced economic recovery later this year that will eventually lead to a serious inflation problem at a time when leverage remains excessive. There are no easy paths out of this current economic mess. Enjoy the rally, but stay nimble.
      Jan 04 11:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • January Gains Delivered
      If this is the start of a more meaningful rally than has been seen to date in the bear market, as might be suggested by the broadly-based move past key resistance levels (including the 50-day avg), is it not true that various cycle indicators can remain overbought for extended time periods and that it usually is best to wait for such indicators to break below the 80% or 70% threshholds before turning negative instead of trying to anticipate such reversals?
      Jan 04 10:57 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Are We Seeing Shades of 2003 Markets?
      Not sure what the point is, but I personally would love to see a repeat of 2003---even if that includes a final low as in March of that year. Also, check the difference between "principle" and "principal."
      Jan 04 10:14 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • It's Time to Stop the Economic Gloom and Doom
      Kudos to fellow libertarian, johngaltfla, for the most refreshing comment I've yet read on SA. I have often found strength in adversity. Indeed, there have been times when adversity proved just what was needed to move me beyond the inertia that can be so inimical to progress. I've never seen an unemployment check in my life. The same "tough love" that works in raising kids into adulthood is much needed in this paternalistic American society.
      Jan 02 20:10 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • S&P 500: Approaching Breakout Level?
      Agree with jepittman and would add that the yield curve is solidly positive while the Fed is flooding the economy with money.
      Jan 01 21:28 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Market and Economy Predictions for 2009
      Very insightful and coherent forecasts, IMO. Tokman seems to "know it all" except he hasn't yet learned to count: only 8 forecasts in the above article. I have detected a pattern in SA comments: the least articulate assert the greatest certainty in their views.
      Jan 01 21:00 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Better Days in Store for 2009
      I'm inclined to agree with the author and those who like the 5-year outlook. The lowest 5-year return in the above table comfortably exceeds the yield on 5-year notes at this time, and the average dramatically exceeds the safety-first return. That doesn't guarantee "better days in 2009," but does point in that direction. The two cardinal rules on Wall Street are "Don't fight the Fed" and "Don't fiight the tape." When the Fed floods the markets with money, some things eventually rise in price (with stocks certainly looking like plausible candidates). And while the tape is clearly bearish long-term, the departure from the mean is so excessive (several standard deviations) and the psychological signs of a meaningful bottom so plentiful, that odds very much support the author's conclusions even if the ultimate lows have not yet been seen.
      Jan 01 19:06 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Monthly Consumption Growth: Highest in Seven Years
      If a tiger can't change its stripes, perhaps American consumers also won't drastically change their propensity to consume and the de-leveraging will be less severe than most analysts currently expect.
      Dec 29 08:27 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Current Economic Outlook: Reasons to Be Positive
      From your keyboard to God's computer screen! Doth seem to me your handle is revealing and that December has already slipped outside your thesis. But nice to read an upbeat article anyway.
      Dec 29 08:19 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Falling Prices Stimulate Michigan Home Sales
      So the good news is that after housing prices have dropped 80% from their peaks we can expect demand to pick up? Lucky Michigan to be able to lead the recovery! Arghhhhhhhh
      Dec 14 09:28 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • What if the Credit Crunch Is Just a Symptom?
      Excellent article, Marc. Virtually all real wealth is driven by productivity gains. And productivity gains in the US in recent decades have been driven primarily by a dramatic expansion of international trade. While the world has benefited greatly from this trade, as have US corporations and their investors, American workers have largely been bypassed by these gains. Republicans refused to acknowledge this very real problem or make any effort to do anything about it, and workers able to tap into home equity and other credit lines to boost living standards didn't object strenuously to their lack of real income growth. But once the housing and credit bubbles burst, it became easy for a populist Democratic party to take control of Congress and the White House. I have no doubt that Obama will lead a major effort to redress the inequities that he and most American workers perceive in the current distribution of wealth and income. Profit margins have only begun a predictable reversion to the mean.
      Dec 13 21:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • When Lower Mortgage Rates Don't Boost House Prices
      Lowering mortgage rates will add to demand at the margin and thus tend to reduce inventory while slowing the rate of price decline. Pretty basic economics.
      Dec 10 18:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • U.S. Household Sector Not as Bad Off as Commonly Believed
      Nice article supported by stats instead of the emotional rants characterizing most comments on your post. Having said that, statistics can hide a lot of mischief. If 70% of the cumulative debt is owed by those who own 30% of the cumulative equity, the country would still be in a lot of trouble!
      Dec 10 18:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Is There More Trouble Brewing in China?
      "You can't be building new toy factories while other ones are being shut down."

      Which is why new investment will be focused on infrastructure and housing. This article is big on generalities and opinion but sorely lacking in rigorous analysis.
      Nov 28 17:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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