mcadoo3312

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  • Biotech: The Next Big Bubble?
    Even though his analysis included that fraud, the overall idea is right. I disagree with one of the commenters above that said it was not good to trade these things. Because they are so volatile and risky, I would take huge gains on a stock, even if it could go higher, because the odds of it staying that consistently high are not good.

    The article was also way too general. "Having enough cash" is relative to each individual company, the strength and versitility of the drug, and the burn rate. There are tons of opportunities going into the new year because there has been such little buying of the extremely beaten down stocks which could also be exacerbated by tax loss selling. I am expecting a healthy January Effect bounce in some companies, especially those that have already received FDA approval.
    Dec 29 19:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Will the Last Three Weeks of 2008 Bring?
    While it might be baked in, consider the low volume and who is most likely doing the trading - day traders and others that have an interest in stocks increasing through the remainder of the billing cycle. Higher asset values equal higher revenues for firms at year end. Self fulfilling prophesies have driven this market for the past couple of months, why would this be any different?
    Dec 16 13:49 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Deflation: The Beast Is Here
    One would have to imagine that the banks will lend the money once they feel other potential obligations have passed. Going into year end, it makes sense that they would not overextend themselves to present their most well capitalized balance sheet on their 10K. After the new year, they will not need to window dress as much and they will be able to take some more risk, especially when they can borrow at nothing and lend out to corporations that need cash at almost a pure profit. Why wouldn't they do this when they feel the time is right?
    Dec 16 13:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Deflation: The Beast Is Here
    Even if the current declining inflation (I don't want to call it deflation just yet) does not last for all that long, it will certainly impact the GDP deflator, so what are the chances that the combination of decreased consumer activity and the GDP deflator bring Q4 GDP in lower than the expected -3%? Even though most don't understand the triviality of the GDP calculation, seeing the number lower than expectations could send people running for the door on fear of a "worse than expected recession". In this market, the truth no longer matters.
    Dec 16 13:08 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Is the New S&P Normal?
    I like how you came to your conclusions, but because the market is forward looking, does it really matter that the previous gains were based on credit? Credit is not going away completely, it is just diminishing. Companies with solid balance sheets and products in demand should still fare well. Those that have less desirable products (ahem, crocs) will get crushed. A company like Cisco immediately comes to mind. They have an incredible amount of cash, and even though financials are a large part of their business, their products going forward are still efficient and make other organizations better. We know how much they have been crushed, so does placing an artificial P/E on it make any difference in the ultimate decision to own the company? Unless you need to do so to make quell your cognitive dissonance, I would say no.
    Dec 12 13:16 pm |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Constant 'Bottoming Process' Calls Are Meaningless
    Agreed with everyone else. I am starting to think Becky Quick is one of the "better" anchorbunnies.
    Dec 11 10:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 4 Ways to Tell if This Bear Market Has Really Bottomed
    Basing things on 2009 PE, things may be expensive, but if you take the PV of a lot of larger companies' CF for a couple more years out, they are selling cheaply.
    Dec 10 09:28 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 4 Ways to Tell if This Bear Market Has Really Bottomed
    Neither HAS to be wrong. Right now I don't know that there are many stock "investors". There are a ton of traders which is why the moves have become more predictable. Go long, take it off, short, repeat.
    Dec 10 08:44 am |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake Energy Continues to Shore Up Its Balance Sheet
    Do you have proof of this? What does their receivables schedule look like as there is not much of a difference between A/R and A/P.


    On Dec 02 10:16 PM SlipperyWing wrote:

    > Debt is one thing, being mortgaged to the hilt is another.
    >
    > There are contractors (contract tool pushers, welders, excavators,
    > etc) and service companies (SLB, HAL) in Oklahoma who have not been
    > paid by Chesapeake in over 12 months. There are also working interest
    > holders that have common interests with CHK that have not been paid
    > for production in over 12 months (a 6 month lag is more typical).
    >
    >
    > Chesapeake is essentially holding their money interest free, and
    > have no desire to pay out.
    >
    > I suspect that you'll hear more about this trend after January 1st,
    > when it makes sense for third parties to start demanding their money
    > (why demand money in December and pay taxes on it for all of 2008).
    >
    >
    > Chesapeake is in deep trouble, and their cash on hand won't even
    > service their debt, much less pay off common interest holders.
    Dec 05 15:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull?
    He is right about those levels - just not their positioning. There are too many other levels of resistance before that to have any confidence in what he is saying. Hell, we failed a number of them today.
    Dec 04 17:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Looks Like We'll See Dow at 10K - Soon?
    I agree that longer term technical doesn't carry much weight in this environment, but when you drill down to weekly and daily charts, movement at resistance and support levels is pretty clear. Still hard to make investment decisions, but very interesting to watch.
    Dec 04 09:45 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Historically Bad Times for the S&P
    With the second chart, the 50 DMA had tested the 200 and failed, sparking a huge selloff. The second chart more resembles what we see right now, but that was also the bottom of that recession. I am not calling a bottom, but the overall technicals of late 1974 look very similar to now.
    Dec 03 14:18 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Market Is Telling Us Something
    Do you have proof on your failure to deliver comments?
    Nov 26 11:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Shrinking Outstanding CDS
    The notional value of CDS is the entire monetary amount of all contracts for a specific entity. If counterparty A engages with counterparty B who engages with counterparty C, the notional value of the swap contracts will be larger than the amount of real money that actually gets exchanged in the case of a default. The downside to that is that if one of the counterparties also defaults, one of the entities that thought they were covered with protection actually is not, and then they must come up with the payment. That is the systemic risk in the system; luckily the settlements have gone smoothly and losses have been significantly less than what many expected. By compressing contracts, the notional value decreases and the amount of untangling in settlement events will be much less difficult.
    Nov 25 14:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Effects of the Long Dated Treasury Bubble
    I share the same question as Rhunzzz. It's not that we can't pay the debt down, it's that we won't take the necessary measures to do it in enough time before it get's truly out of control. That time is approaching quickly though.
    Nov 07 09:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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