scfranklin94

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  • Why Oil Will Head Higher
    I think this run up may push it to $60, but it will fall back into the mid-40s when production figures for OPEC come in and everyone sees that Iran isn't cutting back.
    Jan 07 08:28 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • New Cartel Announces the End of Cheap Gas
    The shale plays, the Fayetteville, the Haynesville, the Marcellus, and others will keep the US well supplied of natural gas for the next decade. Also there is a lot of LNG supply that will come on over the next 5 years, so Russia will have some pricing power in Europe, but half of western Europe will get more of it's nat gas via LNG from Algeria, Nigeria, etc. This natural gas 'OPEC' formation is just a bunch of media hype.
    Jan 07 08:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
    A lot of people get mixed up between the cost to produce oil versus the cost to maintain a goverment's fiscal policy. Kuwait needs crude to stay at $45/bbl to maintain their level of government spending; they need it to rise to over $55/bbl so that all of their investments in Dubai don't default. Kuwait has a lot of projects on the drawing board; at $40/bbl, most will get shelved.
    Dec 29 11:35 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake Energy: Back from the Dead
    No way NG 'sprints' to $10 next winter; these shale plays are too prolific. I can see gas drifting up to $7 or $8 over the next few years, but every time it does, shale production will be ramped up and prices will retreat.
    Dec 18 11:25 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake Energy: Back from the Dead
    Nat gas is probably going into the low $5s or mid $4/MMBtu territory in Q1. Too much production is coming online and demand is down. It will probably recover to $6 by next winter as low new production doesn't offset the decline curve in existing wells. So I would wait to buy CHK until Feb-Apr; wait for media stories of "NG at five year lows", etc.
    Dec 18 11:20 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Goldman Sachs Goes Bold! Forecasts $45 Oil
    I can see crude oil getting into the thirties, but not the twenties. OPEC will eventually cut production and a floor will be found in either the spring or early summer. As much OPEC countries want to cheat on their quotas, there's a limit to how low they can afford to go. In 1999 when crude got down to $10, Mexico and the North Sea were producing a lot more, that's not true now. Thankfully Angola and Equatorial Guinea are picking up some of the slack, but it won't last forever. Drilling is slowly down greatly, and $40 B of investments in the tar sands are in limbo for now.
    Even if our daily demand remains at 95% of 2007 forever, eventually crude oil prices will rise due to lack of the industry replacing crude oil reserves. I think that prices will start to recover next winter at the earliest or in the summer of 2010. And, once again prices will rise out of proportion to the change in the demand & supply imbalance - it's par for the course for inelastic price movements.
    Dec 14 17:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Hedge Fund Business Is Finished and Bernie Madoff Is Sealing the Deal
    Sell all hedge funds? Get real, all that it would take is one meeting with Madoff's accountant to realize that there was something fishy going on. Everyone trusted Bernie and they decided not to check the fund statements versus bank records, it's that simple.
    Dec 14 17:31 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • King Coal or King Saud?
    wallyjim - look up Sasol in South Africa, their main business is coal to oil synthesis. It's about the highest polluting hydrocarbon process out there; no one that has seen the result would endorse building such a plant unless there was no other way to obtain crude oil.
    Dec 09 08:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whatever Happened to Bankruptcy?
    James - propping up failing businesses only puts off the inevitable. Not that I'm a big fan of his, but Krugman is already calling for the next decade to be like Japan in the 1990's - deflation and economic contraction. So we can either spend money to keep people in make-work jobs with zero economic growth for a decade, or we can either let the market run it's course and try to set ourselves up for the best chance for economic growth.
    Dec 09 08:26 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Risk of Long Term Deflation Is Low but Growing
    I agree with jlounsbury59, and I can't agree enough that the Treasury and the Fed don't have a handle on how much money needs to be injected. So far, the adhoc nature of these bailouts seems like they are flying by the seat of their pants.

    Since deflation can be defeated by printing ever more paper, I think that we will eventually end up in an inflationary spiral.
    Nov 26 12:49 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Has General Motors Earned a Bailout?
    The automotive industry manufacturing capacity is overbuilt by 20 to 30%. All of the Big 3 need to downsize their workforces, but they can't afford to do that and still pay their defined-benefit pension programs.

    No one has protected my retirement investments from risk of loss, other than myself. Why should I pay taxes to keep auto workers pensions whole, while mine gets shafted?

    The US economy is going into a long down turn, we should quit fighting it and get used to a lower standard of living.
    Nov 26 12:41 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Price Decline Bad News for Future Supplies
    Gee, I guess people are starting to figure out that we're dealing with a semi-inelastic commodity; so we'll have higher highs and lower lows in the future, what a revelation.
    Nov 26 10:53 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is There Life After the Incandescent Bulb?
    All I know is that I changed out my light bulbs awhile back and I found out that I couldn't read in such dim light. So I experimented with using multiple bulb light stands, and then I just gave up and went and bought a five year supply of incandescent bulbs. Hopefully in five years the brightness of CFL bulbs will increase.
    Nov 24 13:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Manhattan Mansions Fall from the Sky - Barron's
    Tahoe, if you think The Divine Right of Capital is a good book, then basically you don't believe in property rights, but you do believe in statism and that bureaucrats are better arbitrators of wealth than individuals. Marjorie Kelly is all for corporations serving some supposed 'common good' rather than being profit-seeking entities. It's already been tried; it's called the American automotive industry.

    I would prefer to live in a society where I have the opportunity to make my own success than by being told by a government functionary what role I will play in society. I found that working for a corporation seemed like a pointless existence, so I built up my skill set and moved on; I suggest you try it also.
    Nov 23 14:02 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Cap-and-Trade Can Cut Emissions Without Major Economic Hit
    'Cap and Trade' hasn't reduced European emissions one iota. Whenever an industry needs more emission credits and starts wailing that either they get the credits or they start cutting jobs, the European politicians hand out more credits. Why do we think it would be any different here?

    If we really want to change emissions in the US we should just have the Feds spend 500B to build new power plants, rather than create an expensive transfer tax system that really doesn't change anything.
    Nov 20 10:07 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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