archman82011

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  • Despite the heavy drop in December's retail numbers, sales began to show signs of stabilization, the first step on the road to recovery. Lower gas prices, heavy discounts, better weather and pent-up consumer demand helped stem the retail erosion.
    <<Despite the heavy drop in December's retail numbers, sales began to show signs of stabilization, the first step on the road to recovery>>

    Ahh yes.

    Is that the same stabilization we have in housing, that the pundits have been talking about as well?

    Give me a break.

    Between calling bottoms in housing, the stock market, etc, people need to go about their daily lives and stop looking for bottoms.

    Bottoms happen when you least expect them.
    Jan 07 12:31 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • 'Official' 2009 Strategist S&P 500 Price Targets
    Look, I have nothing against Bespoke Investment Group.

    This article is useless. Who could possible even care about what these strategists think or predict? These are the same people, who were dead wrong last year.

    It should be apparent to people (though it never appears to be) that these people have as much of a chance being right about the markets as the average american does.

    I guess the only difference is, is that these strategists have somehow fooled enough smart people into thinking they should be grossly compensated for their useless wisdom.

    Gosh I need a shower to rinse away all the filth every time I read about or see one of these strategists opinions.

    Remember, the financial industry survives solely on convincing people that they know better than you. It is all interconnected. They scratch each others back when necessary to keep parting your hard earned money from you.

    Hey it's capitalism sure, but better to be informed than outright taken advantage of.
    Jan 06 11:48 am |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • High Cash Stockpile Available for Buying Stocks to Fuel a Rally
    <<Americans have not had so much free cash available as a percentage of stock market value to buy stocks, houses or iPods and big screen TVs since the 1980s, over 20 years ago.>>

    Blah, Blah, Blah. This is another, in a long line of "reasons" as to "why" the markets just "have" to go up.

    You forgot to say which Americans are supposedly hoarding all that cash.

    It certainly isn't the 90% of Americans who only own 10% of this country's net worth. They are up their eyeballs in debt, have no more than $30K in mutual funds, have less than 30% equity in their homes, etc. Those are real figures from real reports/ surveys done over the past 12 months.

    Fact: The top 10% of this country controls 90% of this country's net worth. So if the Fed/ Treasury and their partner trading desks, coupled with short covering, and some of that sidelined money that belongs to the wealthy keeps going into the market, sure, it will go up.

    The remaining 90% of mom and pop America will then jump in, and as always, have the rug pulled right out from underneath them.

    S & P 500, 25 year continuation trend line is at 750.

    From there we can have a real sustainable bull market. If one is a trader, one can buy the S & P 500 at anytime, and trade their way around it. If not, "investors" should only be dipping a toe here and there into the market as the first "real" recession this country faces in the past 2 decades continues to unfold.

    The S & P 500 should have been bought when everyone was scared to death in late November. Now everyone and his brother has either found a bottom or listing a 100 other reasons why stocks have to keep going up.
    Jan 06 07:39 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • John Hussman: Plunging Equity Valuations Should Impact Stock/Bond Allocation
    Memo's, articles, etc from Asset gathering Fund managers are self serving to say the least.
    Though I have to give kudos to Mr. Hussman, for protecting his fund holders better than 99% of other asset gatherers.

    Treasuries are in a bubble.

    No question about that, however bubbles can go on a lot longer than people think. (Gosh, how many times have we heard that phrase before? Ha, Ha)

    S & P 500, 25 year continuation trend line puts the index at 750 as of today's date. Within 50 points of the trend would seem a reasonable place to invest for the long term. Any investment outside the trend takes on more risk.

    S & P 500 as of today is at 927. Once again, our happily Fed/Treasury and it's partner trading desks couldn't let the S & P 500 revert to the mean. They had to get it going with a low volume rally since late November. History has shown that low volume rallies, while lasting quite awhile, always fail.

    If you are a trader, you have to love this action. You will have a great opportunity to short the market, probably over the late summer into early fall, as the market once again gives up the ghost and reverts back down to that 25 year trend line.

    Maybe then the Fed/Gov't will stay out of the market and let the market return 10% / year (div included) for the next 20 years, instead of up 30%, down 15%, up 20%, down 35%, etc.

    Wouldn't that be nice for a change??
    Jan 06 07:19 am |Rating: +6 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview
    tennisplayer:

    <<Laszlo Birinyi has one of the best stock analyst track records fomany years>>

    Could you post a link that confirms that statement?

    <<Best to listen to expert conflicting views than be a chicken little>>

    As per my previous post I am long stocks, some ETF's. etc. I am just not long the "garbage" that is "sold" to the general investing public by the same people who have been dead wrong for the past 12 months.

    <<You will be on the sidelines watching as the market goes up and miss the upside.>>

    What matters MOST in investing is long term consistency, not trying to miss a huge upside. In 2003 my portfolio was up, yet not as much as the S & P. Then from 2004 thru this year I out performed the indexes.
    The indexes are now back at 1999 levels. My portfolio is back at 2006 levels.

    Enough said.

    I think you need to spend less time worry about the predictions of these market mavens and more time generating long term consistent returns.
    Jan 05 09:05 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview
    We always have to ask ourselves:

    Where were these "experts" like Laszlo Birinyi, when the market was at 14K, and the S & P 500 was 700 points above its 30 year trend line?

    Oh thats right, they were on TV yelling buy buy buy.
    And when the markets started to fall apart they said it was a correction and you had to buy buy buy.
    And when the markets were down 30%, they kept saying now is a great time to buy buy buy, and keep buying all the way down.

    The real problem is:
    We as the general public let them get away with it.
    We allow them zero accountability. We should be able to say to them, "You know what, of you are going to reach a national audience and tell people what to do, then you should be held accountable if you are wrong."

    There are many, many people out there with no investing experience who look to these people for advice (most of which is awful advice).

    Heck I'm not posting this because I am bearish in general. I take the middle road. I own a few US listed stocks. A few Canadian stocks. A few ETF's, some triple tax free munis. I am definitely no smarter than anyone around here, and I am the worlds worst trader to boot.

    Yet, my portfolio was down only 15% in 2008, while 99.9% of these talking heads and asset gatherers destroyed so much wealth this year.

    I take the middle road, always. Not to bullish, not to bearish, in the middle just trying to generate consistent returns over time.

    Just ask the average american who's portfolio value is where it was back in late 1998. (Based on the S & P 500 of which the majority of americans use as the basis for their investment portfolios)

    Thankfully, my portfolio is only set back about 2 years worth to 2006.
    I hope all of you have had the same success as I have managed thus far to have, and I wish you all the best.

    Let us keep a rational perspective about the markets as it has become clear that those who have been dead wrong over the past 12 months are now beating the drums, telling you everything is OK now, without a care in the world.

    Remember, they all have their real agendas well hidden from view.
    Jan 04 17:13 pm |Rating: +8 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will 2009 Bring Ring Three of the Financial Circus?
    Here is what I like about this article:
    It is a rational, thought out piece that keeps you right in the middle of the road. Not to bullish, not to bearish. It keeps you in the game, yet thinking of the real problems that still exist out there.

    Completely refreshing.

    Anyone else read the papers over the past 2 days or watch the TV?

    Apparently everything is OK now in the world, country, and economy.

    I can site (though I won't because I don't want to bore you), atleast a dozen different articles and 100 different "experts" who are calling market bottoms, etc.

    Funny thing is, most of these people were the same people telling you to buy at DOW 14K, and keep buying all the way down.

    Isn't it amazing how they can now just sit there and claim they were right all along just because the market has been going up on no volume for the past 3 weeks?

    Heck we could end up 30% this year with no problem. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury and its "partner" trading desks can see to that.

    Keep in mind, according to the work I have done, the 30 year continuation uptrend line for the S & P 500 is at 750 (as of 1/4/09)

    Please note I make no claims that this the "end all" solution for the stock market.

    Anything above 750 is considered above trend. I guess we can just go to bubble number 3, have the Fed/ Treasury push the markets up, then just as mom and pop get back in, pull the rug out and down she goes.

    I just do not see why the market cannot be left well enough alone and start from 750 and return 10% / yr (with dividends) for the next 20 years, instead of up 30% one year, down 12% the next, up 8%, then down 35%.

    Best of luck to all, and again, good article.
    Jan 04 16:12 pm |Rating: +7 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Finally, Some Holiday Cheer
    I guess.

    Then again, there was barely even half the average daily volume traded on the indexes today (1/2/09).

    Nothing to get excited about here.

    Volume since a low in November has been barely average each day up.

    Food for thought folks. Do not get sucked into hype.
    Jan 02 16:30 pm |Rating: +7 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Hints of Risk Appetite Returning to the Stock Market?
    Hints of risk appetite returning?

    Where?

    Maybe in the high yield corporate bond market and muni markets.
    Maybe.

    In stocks? I hope the author is not getting overly excited about a no volume rally off a low in November.

    This seems to be a "real recession" we have here, finally.

    That means rallies, then givebacks, followed by more of the same.

    S & P at "trend" (based on 25 year continuation chart) is 750.

    The farther we go up above 750, the farther we have to fall back to be at trend. If our government, Fed, and it's "partner" trading desks would stay out of the way and let the market function normally, the S & P would be at 750 now, and we could have 10% (dividends included) total returns a year for the next 20 years. Instead we will keep getting up 20%, down 10%, up 15%, down 30% returns going forward for the next 2 decades. They just cannot leave well enough alone.

    The trend seems in place for those who can see it: Buy the S & P when it is within 50 points of 750, slowly short the S & P when it is over 900.

    Unless these markets go back to being truly "free" markets, expect big returns on the up and downside over the next 20 years, netting investors nothing, traders who do well a very nice return, and the asset gatherers everything (since they just collect a fee for lousy performance anyway)
    Jan 02 09:20 am |Rating: +3 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Good Riddance to 2008
    Careful.

    Notice that this entire rally off the "low" has been on declining volume.

    You are correct that stocks are now above the 50 DMA.

    Luckily, there is still plenty of time for people to climb on board if volume picks up and stocks keep moving higher.
    Dec 31 16:10 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • There is No Household Debt Crisis
    I just wanted to add to my post above:
    Electric / Water Utility Companies, heating oil & gas companies, cable/ internet/ wireless providers are ALL increasing their allowances for charge offs due to non payment of accounts by consumers.

    Anyone who believes any of the absolute nonsense the FED puts out is truly living in a dream world.

    As I mentioned before: look at the authors blog and his "blog roll" of friends. On that list you will find another SeekingAlpha contributor: Dr. Mark Perry. This guy Perry, writes the same nonsense as this author, using government figures as examples. Yet for most of us living in the real world, we know that the majority of government data put out is typically distorted or an outright lie.

    Both these men, I am sure, are multi-millionaires, without a care in the world other than worrying about their health. They can in no way relate to the average family in the USA. Ofcourse these men pump the market and take every bit of bad news and spin it as good news. As part of the elitist class they make money when average americans are suckered into believing the garbage the Fed/ govt puts out there.

    Do not be fooled.
    Dec 30 16:27 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • There is No Household Debt Crisis
    If I could provide links or articles to every single statement I would.
    Here is a list of items I have read, watched, etc over the past 12 months: I am sorry I can't provide further proof or links. Feel free to use the following as a starting point to research.

    10% of this country controls 90% of this country's net worth.

    Credit card debt (non mortgage, auto loan, etc) stands at $950 Billion dollars, the highest in the history of this country. If we are all so wealthy why dont we just pay it off? Isnt it a known fact that when the stock market is returning nothing, by paying off credit owed it is the same as getting a 20% return on investment - assuming the credit card rate is 20% ofcourse.

    Amount of all mortgages owed stands at the highest every in the history of this country.

    Amount of equity the average american has, in his home is now under 35%.

    The average american family has less than $30K in mutual funds as per latest information provided from the biggest fund families. (approx 6 months ago)

    Americans are withdrawing money from their 401 (k)'s at the fastest rate ever, to pay for everyday expenses.

    Astonishingly 50% of all baby boomers will rely solely on social security during retirement. The next 20% have less than 100K in monetary assets, the next 20% have less than $200K and the final 10% more than $200K. (recent extensive survey from article on Yahoo about 2 months ago)

    Mohbull seems to believe (or wants dearly to believe) that the chart provided for the article by our ever so honest and important Fed is on the up and up...LOL

    Does anyone in their right mind believe any charts, or so called facts that our own Federal Reserve hands out??? The same FED who rationalizes that durable goods you purchase mean you are spending your savings as opposed lets say to putting it on a credit card (yes that was said) or the same FED that considers the garbage you buy that loses value every second of every day, to be part of your net worth?

    Mohbull wrote:
    <<If the Federal Reserve's depiction is accurate, then the average household uses only around 20% of income to pay for housing, auto and consumer loans, and that IS a reassuring number in the big scheme of things.>>

    All I can say to this is: mortgage defaults way up, and getting worse. Same with foreclosures. Same with auto leases. Same with credit cards.
    Same with consumer loans. On and on and on.
    Someone please tell me that I am lying or am I the only one who reads more than just the sports pages of the newspapers?

    It is outright comical to think that consumers only use 20% of disposable income to pay for the items listed. The facts and figures that dispel that are written about every day and occasionally the actual numbers are put in print or the internet.
    Dec 30 15:03 pm |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • There is No Household Debt Crisis
    I would recommend everyone visit the author's blog, look around, see who his "friends" are.

    The reality is, as i stated above, this author is one of the "scholar" elites, who is in no way, shape, or form, like the average american family who earns $45K per year before taxes.

    I am sure, he is a multi-millionaire whose only care in the world is staying healthy.

    I am not against people like that.

    I am against people like that who write articles that are utter lies, backed up with zero facts, all the while being I am sure being "quite" well off.
    Dec 30 09:04 am |Rating: +5 -6 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    Return to the gold standard would mean one thing:

    Accountability.

    We can't have that now can we? That means if we have accountability in our finance system, we have to have accountability in government. If we have accountability in government, that means our citizens have to be more accountable, and return to an ethical and moral country.

    We can't have that though. That means minimal corruption, less graft and greed. Our country would have to do what is best for the majority instead of what is best for the select few.

    Good golly we can't have that now can we????
    Dec 30 08:56 am |Rating: +21 -14 |Link to Comment |View article
  • There is No Household Debt Crisis
    As I write this I am pulling myself up off the floor.
    I fell to the floor after reading this short article.

    This article is a complete and utter bold faced lied.

    This article provides no facts whatsoever to back up the claims in the title, other than to say:

    "Household debt and financial burdens (measured by using monthly payments as a percent of disposable income) today are about the same as they were in 2002"

    Why is it then that as Americans we owe over $900 billion dollars in credit card debt?
    What about the hundreds of billions of dollars in home equity extraction that occurred from 2003-2006? That money has been paid back?
    I guess things must be so good that the government is doing what it is doing simply because it feels like giving free money away to companies.
    Seeing as alot of the root of the problem is the fact that americans are broke, defaulting on their mortgages, withdrawing money from their 401(k)'s at an alarming rate to cover their everyday expenses.

    My God where do I stop.

    This article is a complete and utter bold faced deceptive lie.

    As a side note: I quickly visited the authors blog, and not surprisingly I found a link to another blog of someone who is an author on SeekingAlpha.com, Mr. Mark Perry. Another "scholar" who spins every bit of bad news to be "good news", while rationalizing that bad news.

    My guess is Mr. Grannis is yet another multi millionaire who has not a care in the world, and happily rationalizes what the average american has to live thru everyday.

    Pathetic in my opinion.
    Dec 30 07:41 am |Rating: +16 -6 |Link to Comment |View article

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