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Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years
Nov. 6 - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ.TO: Quote, Profile,
Research, Stock Buzz) slows spending on second phase of Horizon oil
sands project for 2009 after first phase costs rise to C$9.7 billion,
up 42 percent from 2004 estimate. Company, citing low oil prices and
high costs, also scraps timelines for phase 2, which would lift output
to 250,000 bpd from 110,000.
Nov. 6 - ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)
and Saudi Aramco halt bidding on the construction of a 400,000 barrel
per day joint- venture Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia, citing
uncertainties in the financial and contracting markets. Saudi Aramco
previously sought to renegotiate contracts for equipment for Yanbu, as
well as for a refinery joint venture with France's Total SA(TOTF.PA:
Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
Nov. 5 - Saudi Arabia may renegotiate contracts for long- term oil and
gas field projects, an oil official told the International Oil Daily.
The giant Moneefa oilfield expansion and the Karan gas scheme had been put out to bid when the cost of labor and materials were soaring.
Nov. 5 - Sunoco Inc (SUN.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to
save $375 million by scrapping upgrade of refinery in Tulsa, Oklahoma;
still looking to sell the refinery, which accounts for just under a
tenth of the U.S. company's 910,000 barrels per day capacity.
Oct. 30 - Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research,
Stock Buzz) said it would delay its investment decision on a second
expansion of its Athabasca oil sands project.
Oct. 29 - Thai refiner and petrochemical company IRPC IRPC.BK reviews a $1.5 billion investment plan. Has delayed a refinery expansion to 260,000 barrels per day and cut its run rate by 10,000 barrels per day to about 160,000-170,000.
Oct. 23 - Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock
Buzz) delays construction of oil sands upgrader for C$20.6 billion
Voyageur expansion by one year to 2013. Expansion boosts production
from Suncor's oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta, to
550,000 bpd from 350,000.
Oct. 23 - Petro-Canada (PCA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)
mulls deferring upgrader for proposed C$21 billion Fort Hills oil
sands project to save up to C$10 billion. Move would mean partners
build mine and extraction plant and sell as much as 160,000 barrels a
day raw bitumen into the open market starting 2011. Decision before
year-end.
Oct. 23 - Nexen Inc (NXY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and
Opti Canada Inc (OPC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) delay
decision on second phase of Long Lake oil sands project to some time
in 2009. Expansion would double production of synthetic crude to
120,000 barrels a day. First phase cost C$6.1 billion and is now just
starting up.
Oct. 23 - Value Creation Group construction of C$4 billion Heartland
upgrader near Edmonton, Alberta, reported halted. First phase would
have processed 77,500 barrels a day of bitumen into synthetic crude.
Privately held company has regulatory approval for plant with 260,000
bpd capacity.
Oct. 22 - Baker Hughes Inc (BHI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock
Buzz) expects about 200 oil and gas drilling rigs in North America
would be idled during the fourth quarter because of the tighter credit
markets and the declines in oil and gas prices. (Writing by Braden
Redall; Editing by Walter Bagley and Andre Grenon)
Do you hear the sound of the passing tumbleweed across the desolate plains? No energy investment now means no flow of oil to market when it will inevitably be needed and demanded in the future. Unless, of course, the economy never recovers and continues to contract and all the world's people of the emerging economies agree to forego the western standard of living. Accompany this with the natural oil depletion that is occuring and you have a big problem. Oil is now a yoke on all future economic activity.
Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years
I asked him exactly what did he mean when he said, “…if they do everything right from this day forward…” ?
He responded with this:
"Meaning that every new oil field they work on has to hit. And production rates can’t fall off at existing wells. Sadly, everyone knew this day has been coming since early 2001. You can read “Strategic Energy Challenges for the 21st Century” from the James A. Baker Institution and it’s an eye opener.
Moreover, the oil guys were all in on that think tank paper and the only thing on their lips was Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. Only because everyone knows they have 115-240 billion barrels of oil, the world’s last great major oil fields not exploited, and as the report said, “Like it or not, Iraq remains our only option to enhanced oil recovery.”
The game changer is that by 2015 demand will exceed supply. (I’ve wrote about that years ago in the ST) Which has been talked about now as the reason for the high price of oil, but it hasn’t been true. Now in 2004 it came close, maybe an 800K barrel daily buffer. But now you know why I say I’m not against drilling or anything else that extends our supplies.
Now, as of today at my website I put up a map of our offshore areas and how much recoverable oil is believed to be there. It’s not that encouraging with the exception of California and even if Washington says to go after it, California has the right to say no. Which they will. At least until the day they too are paying $10 a gallon. Then they’ll put a bounty on surfers instead."
Rough Economic Seas Toss Many Boats, Including Oil Price
The next great crisis will be the unwinding of the dollar. Kingsdale has put his finger on the wildcard but he's not sure what the effects will be. We are in the midst of the fall of America as an economic leader and the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Peak Oil, Cars, and Depressions
Real Price of Gas Approaches a Historic Record-Low
Is Mexico on Its Way to Becoming an Oil Importer?
The supply side of oil is getting ravaged as much or more than the demand side. What will make the next oil spike even more acute is the credit crisis that has enveloped the world and is causing big oil projects to be mothballed left and right. The Canadian oil sands, once touted as having "more oil than Saudi Arabia" and which currently account for 2 MBPD of U.S. imports, have been the hardest hit by the credit crisis
and collapsing oil prices. Having a highly energy intensive extraction process, Canadian oil sands are not economically feasible when the price of a barrel sinks below $80 per barrel. As Qatar's oil minister recently warned, oil prices below $70 a barrel will cause a new supply crisis. "Under this scenario, future demand will face a shortage and there will not be enough investment to cope with demand increases." He is correct. We are setting ourselves up for major future supply constraints. The general public doesn't understand this and most are not aware of the seeds being sown. Try explaining to the average person that Big Oil is not gouging them at the pumps.
Exacerbating the situation for America in particular is that this energy crisis is building at a time when our national debt load is ballooning out of control. Unlike in the 1930's, the U.S. is no longer a creditor nation nor energy independent. It seems inevitable to me that the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency will be replaced by a basket of commodites or other currencies.
Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning
The IEA Annual Report: A Dire Picture of Energy Supply and Demand
New Technology Makes Natural Gas a Viable Replacement for Oil
Was 'Peak Oil' a Multi-Billion Dollar Hoax?
Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End
Read here:
www.chrismartenson.com...
Is Oil Demand Falling Off a Cliff?
It Did Happen! - Cramer's Mad Money (9/29/08)
Analysts' Oil Forecasts Wildly Off Base
Is the sun going to run my car? Solar cars? If so, I don't see Toyota or GM producing one at this time. What people need to keep in mind is that oil supports nearly 100% of our transport sector. So solar won't affect that reality. Electric cars would affect it though, but significant barriers remain. With only a limited driving range and the need for an ICE engine to still be a part of the "electric car" in order to recharge the 400 lb. battery, we are light years away from such cars making any kind of significant inroads into the overall market share of car sales. And here's something nobody is talking about --- the large scale toxic waste that will be left behind when we start to dispose of these electric car batteries en mass.
Peak Oil - Are We There Yet?