Brahm

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  • Geopolitical Energy: Centered on the Caspian Sea (Part 2 of 2)
    Good analysis, but perhaps somewhat skewed in parts. You failed to mention that besides the oil/gas concessions in Iraq for BP, Exxon, Shell and Chevron, the current Iraqi govt has also given concessions to Chinese companies and others. Future Iraqi governments are unlikely to skew their energy policy, especially issues on exploration and production rights, solely in favour of Western companies. Other nations' (state companies) have not been aggressive bidders yet due to fluid and unsettled circumstances in Iraq currently.

    As Europe's dependence on Russia and Central Asian energy increases with time, a divergence in approach to Central Asia and Iran will most likely increase between the US and the Europeans. One can see the nuances of this divergence even now.
    Jan 05 11:24 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Celebrating Wealth Destruction
    In some ways, it will work!! I agree that the consumption of the rich will not be affected much, but the excesses (rather I would like to use the words boorishness and foolish behaviour as their indulgences in motor-boats, private corporate jets, Riviera, etc) will be somewhat curbed as their bank accounts or weallth funds get siphoned off and look puny.

    There will be innovation and saviing. I am sure of that, because when balances get smaller these people need further incentives to make the next million. What could be more incentive than relative poverty to their former balances! And, there will be lots of collateral benefits and windfalls for others on the lower rung of the economic ladder.

    It is just like what I say about CEO and management pay. If shareholders are empowered (by the grace of the SEC!) to determine what the pay should be for them, then there will be incentives for CEO's and others on their team to perform the way they should. That is because the majority of sophisticated shareholders have the wisdom to understand that the greatest incentive for CEOs, boards and management to perform is if they realize that their job and pay depend on shareholder approval, and not on crony board members.
    Dec 24 13:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Expert: Coal Reserve Estimates Way Too High
    In the last sentence of the article the words "and some energy gets lost in the conversion" is highly misleading and understates the issue. The loss is actually about 50%. That is how bad the coal to liquids approach is from the standpoint of greenhouse gases and global warming!
    Dec 19 09:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
    No option should be excluded. NG is a preferred option as far as I am concerned, and NG engine automobile should not have to be more expensive than a gasoline powered one. If it is now, it is most likely due to low volume sales and related service/distribution or marketing issues for the situation at present. However, there is no firm evidence on reliable supply issues for NG (quantity) on long term basis. No reliable resource estimates are available; hence NG should just be one of the options among others. It is better that way, and let consumers/ markets decide to the level and degree preference or use.

    Electric is a complicated issue at this tyime. What is the basis for elctricity genration. NG? It would be folly of an extreme nature. Producing electricity from NG provides generation efficiency at the most of about 60% (using gas-fired combined cycle plants). Loss of 40%!! Tends to nullify the advantages of NG as a greenhouse controller. Then there is cost of (NG use) relating to inefficiency, investment i power plant and tgarnsmission facilities, etc and etc. Unless someone can show that the NG-electricity-electri... engine route is more efficient than an NG fired option car. Tall order!!! Transmission system problems are more easily resolvable than other problems I have indicated, becasuse costs for setting up a grid is not all that formidable an d other issues relatging to decision/regulation are not formidable.

    However, begin focussing also on issues relating to storage batteries and the engine required. Current estimates I have seen say that this plug-in electric engine car is about $10K more expensive than a corrwponding gasoline fired car engine car. The public will not be amused of such price differences. That is why I say let all options be available, and we will probably need all for safety, economics/competition, etc and also limitations of fuel supply (NG, oil, environment if coal is one of the options).
    Dec 11 16:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Pickens Plan Changes Its Strategy
    The cylinder or space issues for CNG is not a significant issue in the case of CNG fired trucks.. The author's suggestions on liquid fuels, also advocated by many others and Mr. Pickens himself, is in my view a foolish intellectual contribution to the whole idea of global warming or energy independence due to the following reasons and others.

    Synthesis of liquid fuels (diesel) involves a thermal efficiency of about 50%. That means it takes about 2 MM BTU of CNG to produce one MM BTU of diesel! This chips off significantly the advasntage for a tacit objective of putting out less carbon to contain global warming. The author should not forget that rather than the volume of the tank it is the weight of the fuel and its BTU density which determines the overall performance (mpg) of the engine, if other issues such as engine burn characteristics, etc remain equivalent for the two fuels. BTU to BTU diesel is much more weighty than CNG!

    There is an economic dimension to the issues I have raised. The fuel material input costs, i.e. the cost of natural gas input for diesel, is double that of CNG as a direct firing fuel (low synthesis efficiency!). In other words, the present $6 per MM BTU CNG becomes a $12 per MMBTU input cost for diesel. Add to this plant capital, depreciation, interest on capital borrowed, ROR, etc, you have $16 per MM BTU cost. Quite a lot more than $6 CNG!!! A massive shift to the use of this kind of diesel will roil gas markets, bring gas supply concerns, etc, etc and etc. MY guess is there would be no advantage vis-a-vis oil, especially if OPEC or other oil intersts turn themselves as upsetters of the apple-cart. Competition!!!

    There are other profound issues which I will leave you, MR. Pickens and others to think and browse about. But there are there. Without good thinking we may go down a sticky wcket again. Please! Us, little people, and OBAMA does not need another mess on our hands through shoddy thinking and slickness. Please continue the good work with my blessings! And, if you have the energy to do it check it out with me. I am "retired", though, but would not mind giving my inputs
    Nov 17 10:22 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is India's Economy About To Blast Off?
    In view of the constraints around due to the global situation, it is difficult to accept an emphasis on the word "blast" as applied to the Indian economy' growth. The essential difference made out by the author between India and China vis-a-vis the global factors is on the dot with regard to the relative impact. India is less affected by the global situation. than China.

    Infrastructure growth can lift the economies of both countries significantly to avoid a deeper slide, and both can and will marshall plans to do so. However, the pace for execution of infrastructure investment are significantly different for each ofthese countries. India's processes are cumbersome and extrtemely prone to delay or sabotage, mainly due to a corrupt bureacracy and resultant endless scope for negotiation, endless protestr and review on procedural grounds, and loften resulting litigation. Due to the potential for huge leakage into the pocketrs of vested interests there is also considerable bickering and infighting beteween bureacrats, politicians on control and execution issuews before a project can get started.

    The Indian economy is always going to be handicapped by these issues, unless India gets into the habit of setting up a government of the people, by the people and of the people. For many of us NRI's it is a source of shame and disenchantment to find that India's officials and politicians are determined to hold the people hostage to their own weaknesses and personal agendas. China has a a considerably better record in this respect. That is why China will always be ahead in forseeable future with regard to pace and rate of growth, despite the global constraints at times on its economy.
    Nov 10 21:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • India Battered by Global Storm
    This analysis is incisive! It implicitly focuses the reader on the essentials in the differences between the economies (and problems) of that of India with those of an emerging China. Or shall we say developed China!

    The Indian (and also Brazil, perhaps) industrial growth story is still preserved though at a slower pace while that of China faces a significant slowdown or marginal decline. China's economy is much more meshed in with the larger global economy due to heavy export dependency, while India's is less so. The effect of commodities is larger on the Indian economy since it weighs in at heavier relative level in its consumption and much of it based on imports. Thus the effects of commoditities recently on Indian inflation based on this dependency has been much larger. Perhaps, with the fall in commodity prices globally there soon woul be significant relief from inflation for the Indian economy.

    India is also likely to see significant pick-up in investments after the elections expected soon in development of its infrastructure which has been subpar in recent years. The authror's suggestion of the likelihood of the preservatgion of India's growth story is plausible. I would bet that it is highly likely. The one area of concern is in India's poor track record for development and growth of its farm sector and agri-industry.

    Oct 08 10:04 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Citi Examines Its Carrots and Sticks
    The question one needs to browse upon is whether the FDIC has the authority to force a shot-gun marriage with a specific suitor, if the shareholders feel they have gotten a raw deal. Especially if no Federal or FDIC money or gurantees are going to be involved in the deal for the alternative option, ands there arte no limitations with regard to capitalization or anti-trust. I would be surprised if the FDIC (or Sheila Bear) sustains the Citi take over as the only option there is.
    Oct 04 16:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Brewing Between China, Vale, and the Baltic Dry Index
    Long term the Vale gambit may have some strong currency behind it. However near or intermediate term as the global slowdown unrolls, Vale may have its swagger somewhat crimped. Don't forget there are about half a dozen global suppliers still around who may just step in to provide some of the slack stemming from Vale's hardball negotiating tactics. Excess capacity may just be there to checkmate Vale's ploys as auto sales cool and infrastructure needs are moderated due to strains on national budgets or kittys.Note that companies such as Mittal are also busy acquiring ore capacity and developing new production to reduce ore purchases from outside suppliers.
    Oct 01 12:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Have Things Gone So Wrong?
    Transparency is a very relevant issue. However, after saying that our difficulties begin mounting like a tsunami landing on the coast. What do we mean by transparency? It is difficult to answer that in a coherent, relevant and encompassing manner.

    To many laymen one of the greatest failures with regard to transparency in the last several years has been the way in which disclosures were made before the floating of these toxic securities which have been at the root of our problems now. There is the story how Paulson's former firm (Goldman) packaged some of the most toxic securities. The disclosure document was about 400 pages long. It disclosed everything about the packaged securities (SIV), including the toxicity of some of the parts of the package. However, someone had to have a PhD in finance and several other disciplines to understand the full possible impact, and more imprortant, weeks of time to find out what is wrong or horriblle about the package.

    Whose fault was this that something like this can happen or be allowed?

    Of course, Goldman first, perhaps. Why? They weren't thinking about anyone else., except themselves! Legally? Certainly, thye were not at fault at all. Those who helped peddle these to their ignorant and unsuspecting clients are seriously at fault. No doubt of it. Here the failure had been telling and outrageous.

    How about the SEC, or the monitoring and permitting agency which should either require better concise disclosure or not allowed these securities to be floated since some of them were worthless or highly risky. Some were also unrelated to the more acceptable securities in the packaged SIV. Certaiinly, this or other Fed agencies connnected with the permitting of these securities were derelict. Here definitely was a problem, and from the layman's point of view, a serious on e. Agencies which were asleep or forgot their responsibilities in regard to transparency and, perhaps, even also on appropriateness. It will require a lot of legal, ethical, moral, as well as regulatory experience to browse on these failures to serve as leeson for the future. However, will we see this reviewed in a meaningful way. It is doubtful!

    Oct 01 10:09 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
    David Fry presents excellent analysis as usual. However, dumping on the speaker ain't cute at all. Perhaps, dumping on the scrumptious crowd that implicitly said "She hurt our feelings and exposed our hypocrisy of the last 25 years of pinhead economics" is probably more to the point.
    Oct 01 08:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Read It and Weep for the USA
    I can only add that the sum total of this authority being vested in the Secretary of the Treasury is so vast, without limit within the $700 billion authorised and unlimited in potential derelictions and conflict, that it is frightening. We can only pray that the Secretary will have enough integrity and the Grace of God on himself so that we will be protected from the follies of Government and many of its officials in the Secretary's circle. .It is a sad day in the history of the United States that we have fallen so low into a morass where we have no checks and balances for our protection on this critical piece of authority.
    Sep 21 16:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Hedge Funds May Have Gone Too Far
    Well, yes, it is unfair that the big boys at GS, MS andat many other enteprises have the clout to get protection for themselves, while they have been guilty of practises of the same kind in behalf of their clients and their own accounts in the past. But this is not a fair world, and was probably never meant to be. However, nore important, somebody should have had the gumption to call for the firing of Christopher Cox a long time ago. McCaine has finally done it yesterday -- too late and perhaps only because he is running for election and Cox has been one of the sore points in this election. In my view, it is a fault to appoint anyone who has served in Congress or the Senate to a post in a business related field, such as as the SEC or the Board of a financial public enterprise. Political sense is simply in conflict with dollar and cent propriety too often and in strange ways.
    Sep 19 09:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Canadian Natural Resources: Horizon Slippage
    CNQ is a company to watch. for its future. It may be a " timelier" at this point. However, is it timely now to put more investment in it? Oil is just below $100. Where is the floor? That is the point when CNQ's timeliness may be assured.
    Sep 15 16:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dow Chemical's Next Move
    It is a good time to begin moving actively on production and facilities in India. However, even with deliberate speed in mind, India is a tough place for setting up a manufacturing facility. At least five years away, and perhaps more, for chemicals production to begin if today is the start day for initiating land acquisition, plant plannning and construction. We should not underestimate the hurdles and foibles of the whole enterprise set-up process.
    Sep 10 10:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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