willynill

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  • As a Discounting Mechanism, the Market Will Rebound Before the Economy
    Yup, it is a discounting mechanism. The price today is the present value of all future cash flows that it KNOWS about, discounted at a rate consistent with the risk. I think PrudentMan is really saying that the market is not efficient, and I agree with that.
    Nov 24 16:50 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Market Rallies on Geithner's Appointment: Why?
    If the rally was due to short covering, why was the short covering occurring? Answer: Because the information about the Secretary of Treasury was sending a signal that Obama would not be as leftist as feared, and that was good news which may be spilling over into Monday's market, along with other "good news".
    Nov 24 09:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Has the Dollar Rebounded - And When Will It Correct?
    trw88 is correct: foreign financial institutions (and entire foreign economies) are having big problems. Unless you think that those economies will recover faster than the U.S. economy, you should not short the dollar.
    Nov 24 08:50 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Doesn't Take Much for a 500 Point Rally in an Oversold Market
    At about 3:00 p.m. EST, the Dow was at approximately 7500, and that's when the market learned who the new Secretary of the Treasury would be. One hour later, the market closed at 8046, up almost 550 points. That's not a cascade (rapid downward movement), it's a significant jump upwards. In the absence of other news during that time, we have to conclude that the jump was almost entirely due to the new information. Remember that the stock market is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator (or even concurrent), and that it reacts quickly to new information about the future. If we suggest that the recent market drop is Bush's fault, we are wrong. The Bush administration is the past; the Obama administration is the future. The stock market "discounts" the future. So this stock market movement since election day is about the Obama administration and its influence on the economy; it is not about the past.
    Nov 23 18:26 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now?
    If your doctor said you had cancer and could live only a little while longer, are you going to say the doctor was wrong if you have a temporary remission? No, the doctor was still right.
    Nov 19 18:48 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Reagan Counterrevolution
    What Reagan understood and most leftists don't understand is that our economy is not a zero-sum game. When someone loses (via higher taxes, e.g.) doesn't mean that someone else gains. That is not zero-sum, that is lose-lose. Increasing taxes on the rich more always hurts the poor more than it hurts the rich. And it is not "trickle down", it is "cascade down." Also, trying to find another country that is better than the U.S. economically is an exercise in futility. Look at the downward spiral of Europe; China? No, China will get old before it gets rich.
    Nov 09 08:59 am |Rating: +5 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China Wants the U.S. Dollar to Drop Dead
    Just wondering about two things: When China's holdings of treasury securities mature, what will they do when they are paid in dollars that are worth very little?
    And, China's one-child policy has been in place for about twenty-two years; soon the population will start to decline and age. Isn't that a formula for long-term collapse?
    Oct 28 19:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Falling Gas Prices Will Save Consumers $156 to $188 Billion Annually
    Yes, good point. This 150 billion can be spent on goods produced by people who don't hate us as much. It is better than a stimulus program because it doesn't take taxpayers' money. It is like a tax cut in that it can increase government revenues from taxes (remember Laffer?).
    Oct 18 09:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Heading for $150 a Barrel, Gold for $1500 an Ounce - Merrill
    Eureka! I just figured out who bosunj is! He is Reverend Wright!
    Oct 17 23:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?
    oops, I meant DEFLATION--
    Oct 10 14:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?
    Jason C is right: commodities are not going to go up in a world of inflation. In fact, they've already come down in a big way. Look at dba, for example.
    Oct 10 14:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling
    Too many of you are agreeing with the accountant. An accountant deals with the past; he reports financial data that is already history. Markets are all about the future and what looms ahead as a crisis or a cure. Forget about the past; get ready for what's coming next.
    Oct 10 14:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling
    Markets are about the future. There is a saying in the stock market, "the market never discounts the same thing twice." So the stock market is swooning now as the anticipation of an Obama presidency heightens (there is a high negative correlation between Obama's poll numbers and the present stock market numbers). So if Obama is elected, the market won't drop again. In other words, the stock market value today is the present value of future expectations. Future expectations are looking grim with an anti-capitalist government in the offing.
    Oct 10 09:56 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Currencies Race to the Bottom
    Spending is done by Congress, not the president, but the president has to use the veto pen. John McCain says he will use the veto, and I believe him. There is a reason why Congress has a much lower approval rating than the president now; it is because of earmarks and pork barrels. Then people say that they like their individual congressmen even though they hate congress. The reason they like their own congressman is that he/she brings home the pork to them. When John starts to use the veto pen, your own congressman won't look so good to you, and you'll throw out the bum.
    Sep 05 15:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Dollar's Decline: Taking Responsibility for the Future
    Bob La Follette must be turning over in his grave. Chinn is not just wrong, he is utterly wrong. Do Wisconsin taxpayers know that their tax dollars are paying the salaries of such witless professors?
    Jul 12 21:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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