Mountain Fist

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  • We Have a Debt to Discharge
    My apologies. Last line should read: It is patriotic and morally right for those who grasp the reality of our country's current fiasco to speak of it and to convince any of our friends, families, or others who will listen of this reality.
    Nov 07 11:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • We Have a Debt to Discharge
    Excellent article David! I have to agree with you one hundred percent. No matter how based in reality, fact and intelligent reasoning an article on SA is there's always a couple of naysayers on here who just have to back up the failed policies of our gub'mint (as smarty_pants so aptly names them) and the Fed itself. Until we've been in a depression or recession for years, in fact usually not until it's over with and looked at from a historical perspective, many of these people will never admit we are/were in a depression or recession. How many people do you have to see suffering to admit reality? Or are you so removed from the real world that you don't get it. I think everyone that commented here is intelligent enough to grasp that correlation doesn't equal causation. Are you just trying to be insulting bricki?

    bricki and Broken...It's not like this stuff is something new or made up. It's recorded history that's been going on thousands of years. While empires, systems of government, cultures throughout the ages have been different, it is the similarities we have to look at. The ecomomics of fiat dollars, debt, and powerful governments who think they can manipulate anything have not changed. It has never worked, and it never will. The Fed/gub'mint is killing the USA, and it is up to people who do get it, like Mr Merkel here, to be the voice of reason. It is patriotic and morally right for those who grasp the reality of our country's current fiasco to speak of it and to convince others of our friends, families and anyone who will listen of this.
    Nov 07 11:00 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's
    mzhuang, I can only assume you are talking about people like me when you say pundits are mocking Buffett. I can speak only for myself when I say, mocking Buffett is anything but what I am doing when I make comments. I have been studying and investing in markets for over 25 years now, so I'm a bit more than a "pundit". Buffett's op-ed piece was garbage and may have been at the least a patriotic attempt to pump up our markets and restore some confidence. At it's worst it's pretty bad stuff.

    When in the same breath he disqualifies it by saying "I don't know what the market is going to do short term", you better watch out. Short term for him is a couple of years. Very few small investors have the money, the patience, and most importantly...the emotional state, to watch their positions drop another 40-50% in two more years or even sit flat for 2-3 years (should they be so fortunate in their selection process). Many of the people that get sucked into these sucker rallies will be selling shares to Buffett (figuratively) over the next 2-3 years.

    It may be a great time for Buffett to buy, but that doesn't mean it is for the rest of us. And Buffett d$#n well knows it's a treacherous time for Joe the Plumber to be buying stock! Anybody who thinks he doesn't know that needs to just go back to the their fantasy world and forget about reality for now until it slaps them so hard in the face that they wake up!
    Oct 29 11:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does It Pay To Follow Buffet Blindly?
    I spent a lot of time studying Ben Graham and Warren Buffet, but that Buffett announcement made me lose respect for Mr. Buffett. Trying to talk up buying of stocks because even some of his positions are beginning to be underwater is pretty close to criminal in nature. At it's very least it's taking advantage of a lot of small investors who give too much weight to what people like Buffett say. By now, Buffett knows the effect that things he says has on markets.

    Anybody that can read long term charts of the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, or individual stocks can see that it could easily get a lot worse (stock prices). I wouldn't be following Buffett right now, I'd wait awhile longer and buy for less than him. There are stocks I like that Buffett has already owned for a year or two that are trading under his best purchase price ever, and even farther below his average purchase price.

    If I can watch them slide and get them for half what Buffett bought them, why would I want to watch his self-serving release---"It's time to start buying stocks because they are dropping below my purchase price and everyone knows I'm smarter than the rest of the market", and then start buying stock?
    Oct 24 20:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out
    A very intelligent, reasonable article about what's really going on with the gold market. Sure beats that garbage by Alan Brochstein about how we should short gold. Your line of reasoning is pretty sound and seems to take into account all the converging factors affecting the gold market currently. Thanks!
    Oct 16 00:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
    10,000 years a store of value, as all fiat currencies and countries based on them have failed, but AB says it's different now! I'm sure going to jump off a bridge if you say it's different now and that's actually gonna help me!
    Oct 15 16:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
    One more thing. When these "degreed pros" start saying this time it's different...beware!
    Oct 15 15:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
    To those of you who are complaining about storage, insurance of gold issues etc., wake up! Gold is becoming the next form of electronic money. I can put my gold in goldmoney.com where its denominated in grams and mils, is very secure, and I never have to touch it or worry about storing it, insuring it, or breaking it down into useable denominations.

    Fiat currency is doomed as it always has been. If you don't have some of your money in gold you are a fool! Gold will definitely go up and down but I'm with Peter Schiff on this one...gold is going way up long term. Our governments, the central banking elite, and the Fed guarantee it!
    Oct 15 15:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Our Coming Depression
    mbr, I think right now very few are nearly pessimistic enough. I have absolute faith in my ability to weather this and help all that I care about do the same. As far as the rest of your comment I agree somewhat. I will be buying foreign denominated stocks long before I'm back in the US market.
    Oct 10 00:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Our Coming Depression
    Thank you for this article. It is one of the most intelligent, well thought out, fact-based articles I've ever read on Seeking Alpha. If you question his research and facts, you might wan't to do a little research of your own. I disagree with all of you who chastise this author for writing with a realistic perspective. Before we ever get to acceptance there will be much anger and denial. I too am heartened by the fact that many of my generation are waking up to the facts and realities that face Americans today.

    For us to move forward, the accceptance of our mistakes is necessary, and perhaps the most important factor. Our administration has been lying to us, saying the economy is not that bad, and we are not in a recession. How does it help to sugarcoat that fact, and lessen the acceptance of this current economic situation?

    Chris B, I have been wrong in the past and attacked you unfairly in some instances. It is clear to me that we may be more in agreement on some things than I'd previously assumed though not in agreement on many. I absolutely agree with you that some of the best investments anyone can make in our current situation, are in educations on things that will be useful to a rebuilding country and their fellow citizens.

    Right now my top investments are in books, educational courses, and a couple of businesses that should be greatly helpful to my fellow Americans who are hurting financially. I also believe strongly in the need to get passports for my family, hold some assets denominated in precious metals, and also to get emergency related supplies for the protection and support of my family.

    We save and invest much now (though not in the US stock market), are producing things of value to the average American, and consume/spend very little. This should be the mantra for every American.

    Oh, and one more thing, vote out EVERY Democrat or Republican who voted for the bailout bill. Hell, vote out any of them not endorsed by Ron Paul. Write in a candidate, like Ron Paul, who has an honest voting record that doesn't flip-flop on every issue. At least we know how he will handle the situation, and if he was wrong we can't be dis-illusioned by having voted for him, because he's been voting his beliefs for 30 years without fail, and will continue to do so in any governmental function!

    Voting for Obama, a Constitutional law professor before being a politician, who being one of the more educated people about the Constitution in this country, gave a great and impassioned speech about how the Patriot Act would rape our Constitution, then proceeded to vote in favor of that very same act, will not help this country one iota. And this is not even including the facts as to where his campaign monies originate.

    Voting for McCain, who shows so little a grasp of economics, that he can't even answer valid economic questions intelligently, is equally ludicrous. Not only that, but history has shown us that putting men in positions of power who have been tortured, is a VERY bad idea.

    I don't know it all, but I learn every day.
    Oct 09 12:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Surviving the Financial Nuclear Winter
    Excellent article. Nice variety of intelligent comments as well on this article.

    To Gabe Borenstein: Flight to quality? You are referring to the US dollar as quality, or are you being sarcastic? I don't think anyone would call the US dollar quality right now. The only thing the Fed knows how to do is print money and devalue the dollar. The crisis is being addressed effectively? What planet are you on? We pass this $850 billion bailout bill which has no more effect at loosening credit than the trillion already thrown at it, the Fed sees this and starts the printing press further devaluing the dollar, and you want us out of foreign markets and into this market and US dollars? I guess you are entitled to your opinion, but I think you have it about as perfectly opposite of the reality as you possibly could.

    To Nikola: I'm with you on the everything is so cheap talk. I think with the economic problems we are facing, the crap on balance sheets that is being valued as something, the government trying to prop up housing that needs to be devalued to more true reflections of value, we may be only approaching fair value on the market as a whole. However, when markets/economies are bad and the outlook is gloomy stocks and markets tend to trade below fair value quite a bit. In my opinion, the market will be trading well below fair value minus 10% before there is any meaningful uptrend. If the government and Fed continue as they have recently, we have a LOT more than two years before people will have forgotten this. Right now it looks alot more like mid-1929, like Smarty_pants above said.

    There is much pain ahead for a very large percentage of the US population. Due to unforeseen things that happened to my family with really bad timing (around 911 and right after the tech crash), I could be in that group. No we didnt lose a penny in tech stocks or buy unaffordable, overvalued housing with loose credit. We did have a tragedy that cost us our home, my business and all our assets.

    It's the people like us, that recently had misfortune, and have spent the last 4-5 years trying to work our way out of that misfortune that are in pretty dire staits now. Buying into this market, when our government and the Fed are making the same kind of mistakes that made the depression a Great Depression I don't believe is a great idea. I'm in agreement that the companies (THAT SURVIVE) may not break even on their current share price for a VERY long time.

    Until our leaders and yes, the people too, accept the causes of this chaos, and we become a nation of savers and producers again, I really don't see things improving meaningfully.

    Oct 09 02:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Is Everybody Selling as Buffett Is Loading Up?
    I have learned a lot from Warren over the last 25 years, perhaps more than any other source. He is one of my favorite influences, but no one is right all the time. There have been periods in the past where he has performed very poorly. I agree with most of the posters here that if we could these special deals it would be a much more compelling time to buy.

    What a lot of people are not getting (fortunately more and more are everyday as evidenced by public reaction to the bailout) is that what we have going on here is something that our elected officials and the fed have created over a very long period of time. It will take a long time to correct as well. This chaos that just really started to gain traction in the last month is just getting started. The bailout and massive printing of money by the Fed is only going to prolong the pain and drag this thing out.

    This time Warren's a little early. He may have the money to weather it, but I'd rather buy at 50% less than he bought.



    Oct 09 00:16 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
    Bill, I generally enjoy your analysis and articles. I believe in buying when others everybody is selling. I completely disagree that this a time to buy stocks denominated in US dollars. The foreign markets will be buyable long before this country is. We may see another 40-60% drop in valuations in this country before anything resembling a long term bull market happens in this country. This country has to undergo a fundamental change in the way it's people think before the markets will go up meaningfully again. In my opinion, that is years away, not happening now.

    Not catching this falling knife, I am out and in cash. There will be other ways to make money, but it won't be by going long stocks denominated in US dollars. I'll look to buy in the next 5 years or so, but we've got a LOT more downside to go.
    Oct 06 09:39 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
    How did I set these qualifications? Geez! LOL Who am I? My point was that somebody losing 10-15% this year is probably beating 99.5% of investors today. Considering that my picks in the past have put me consistently in that top 1/2% (within up and down markets during two bubbles and subsequent crashes), and I'm losing my arse right now, I'm trying to give credit where it's due. And by the way, all that time I was in 100% long positions!

    Yes, indeed I have considered going to cash. It would have been a much better choice for me had I done it a month ago. There are deep value plays that just keep getting cheaper, but to take advantage of them or to go to cash now requires me to lock in pretty big losses on what I already own.

    When the markets are brutal and being manipulated to the extent they are now, it's a hard choice. A combination of in depth fundamental analysis, with reference to technicals served me well for many years. New money is going to dividend payers that are heavily undervalued, but as to the money already in play that is sitting down massively on the last couple of weeks activity...hmmm?

    Contemplating rolling all my stock positions into a business idea. Businesses that stand to profit from economic and market chaos may be the best of all possible places for my money to be now. Many of these types of businesses may not be publicly traded. Any change in my strategy of buying and holding (for 1-10 years) great companies that are heavily undervalued requires me to lock in large losses.

    The business plan I am drawing up is a winner in normal economic conditions due to fundamental macro changes that are inevitable over the next 25 years or so, and are accelerating. The real plus is that if they succeed in really screwing up the US economy any further, my business at the least should be just as profitable, but most likely even more profitable. Why? Because I'll be able to obtain my inventory at even better prices, while the product in the form that I'm selling it will benefit people hurting financially.

    oldtrdr you may have helped me answer my own question. I just find it hard to lock in the last couple of weeks losses, when one of the things that has made me successful is having the balls to not micro manage and lock in losses when things look bleak. I guess we'll all be watching to see what happens Monday.

    I'll be working very hard at this new business, while keeping an eye on the markets and my bleeding portfolio for now.

    Oct 05 00:30 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Thinking About the Next Six Months
    Hey what about porn and cigarettes?! Do you see those continuing to sell with the markets in chaos? Try NOOF and VGR, divdiend payers in porn and cigarettes...haha! Full Disclosure: don't own 'em...yet anyway.
    Oct 03 20:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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