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Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
The K-wave will bottom in 2015 as well.
The Mortgage reset mess will bottom around 2013
The P/E may bottom around 5-7 around 2015
The E part of P/E is about to cliff dive with the economy. The earnings will go down another 50% (my educated guess)
This would imply another 75% SP500 hair cut, from where we are NOW - down to 250 level.
Based on this, I would say the SP500 will bottom out in the 300-600 range.
This is going to be a long war, with a lot of blood running the streets. We just entered the second half of the Bear.
We are not Warren Buffets - I wish I had his money and smarts.
Do you want to loose money - listen to Jim Cramer.
The Crash of 2008
In the longer term, it is my opinion, that we are only half way through the bear market. This is what it feels to me - a rebound, half way through this adjustments.
We baby boomers, need to deflate assets before we retire, so the next generation can live their American dream....
The U.S. Economy After the Bailout
Talk Me Down From the Wells Fargo Ledge
Don't Get Sanguine About This Bill
Moving the Deck Chairs on the Economic Titanic
Don't trash Paul K. He obviously is affiliated with the Democrats, but he writes nice articles. Even if you disagree with him, it is a good and intelligent opposing point of view.
I am not fan of Dems, but we need civility in discussion, and Paul has it.
Cheers
The Deal's Getting Done, But Will It Work?
The Deal's Getting Done, But Will It Work?
Wells Fargo: A Growth Stock During the Great Depression?
The Deal's Getting Done, But Will It Work?
Folks, we have a 5-alarm fire going on right now in our financial system. Let's try to put the fire out first before we start blaming the builder for not putting in a sprinkler system 10-15 years ago.
Peter - as much as I respect you, you missing one very important point. This is turning point, end of very important cycle. The public is fed up with constant bailouts. NO MORE BAILOUTS. It is going to hurt a lot, but we need this fire, and these these 'risk blind' morons to burn and collapse.
That's what the Taxpayer is saying. Let it burn, and let it collapse - as a great episode to be remembered, and taught in business schools for generations.
Peter - there are banks in USA, that were well managed. Take for example the US Bancorp. These banks will need to survive. The idea of creating new banks, or capitalizing well managed regional banks, is a great one.
The only people in this land, that want the bailout, are the Wall Street investment banks that screwed up, and the crack addicts (addicted to leveraged capital), like Bill Gross or Warren Buffet (he is up here in derivatives).
The era ended. Let it burn. Let it hurt. It is time to figure it out. You are one of the greatest investors in this country, but you are missing the important point here.
It Could Happen - Cramer's Mad Money (9/26/08)
It Could Happen - Cramer's Mad Money (9/26/08)
McCain's Economics
Level 1 Politician: SAT score 1800. IQ 130. University
degree. Can be certified to do municipal politics only.
Level 2 Politician: Level 1 Politician, plus: SAT score 2,000. IQ 140. Master Degree. Can work in the State Assembly.
Level 3 Politician: Level 2, plus: SAT score 2,100 or Ph.D
IQ 150+. can work in Congress or Senate. Hey -
can even be our President.
How many current Politicos would certify? I do not see many....
Entering the Endgame for Monetary Policy
Another Day Without Precedent
Banks are like the Titanic survivor floating on the ice cold water. They are freezing, and some will go underwater soon, while the Leaders keep talking that the economy is sound....