DaveW

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  • A Market Pullback Would Be Healthy
    Agree with you Jeff, bought FAZ and TZN yesterday for a short trade, then looking for SP 1100. Thanks for the post.
    Jan 07 10:43 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Equities: S&P 600 via 1100
    Agreed, in a major downtrend what goes up, must come down. Good luck out there!
    Jan 07 10:32 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Paychex Warns About Small Businesses
    Seen that TV commercial currently airing, advertising the Chevy Traverse? It shows women's shoes raining from the sky. Hmmm, what does that remind me of? [rhetorical question intended]

    Everyday brings more and more shoes dropping or poised to....
    Jan 06 18:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Line U-6: A Sell Signal for Bulls and Bears
    @ BigJake,
    For starters, the easiest way to short the market are with "Inverse ETFs", they can be called Bear ETFs or Short ETFs as well. Also, many of these come'leveraged': returning 200% performace of its underlying index (there are even Triple leveraged ETFs out there).

    SA has a list of Inverse Market Cap ETFs here:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    and a list of Inverse Sector ETFs here:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    My own 2 cents: the Financial sector and Commercial Real-Estate sector are still quite vulnerable, their inverse ETFs, SKF and SRS, respectively, are at good risk:reward prices currently (~$100 and $50).

    Hope this helps a little,
    -Dave
    Jan 06 15:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • SRS
    p.s. my spelling has STABILIZED too....
    Jan 06 14:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View forum topic
  • SRS
    Title: HAS THE PRICE OF SRS STABALIZED? JAN. 6, 2009

    SRS has been a topic of discussion in recent posts, not only for the expsoure to commercial real-estate downside opportunity, but also for the strange price action of this ETF.

    As a quick reminder, SRS seeks to return 200% of the inverse of the daily performance of its underlying index IYR. Conversely, URE seeks to return 200% of the daily performance of IYR. However, a comparison of recent price action of the three charts is quite interesting. If one had shorted IYR one year ago you would be ahead with a nice gain. But, if you had purchased SRS one year ago you would actually be at a loss! Briefly, this is due to the SRS not shorting commercial real-estate directly, but indirectly via options and swaps which decay over time.

    At any rate, other authors and blogger agree on two conclusions: 1.) most of the UltraShort ETFs (SKF, SRS, FXP, EEV, etc.) are only useful for short term pricing and should be used CAREFULLY, and, 2.) It would be better to short the corresponding Ultra ETFs (UYG, URE, etc.).

    As the title of this post suggests, IMHO it appears the price of SRS may have stablized in the $50-$60 trading range. I would propose that the risk to reward is quite attractive at this price and, for myself, am buying here.
    Jan 06 14:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View forum topic
  • The Law of Unintended Consequences: 20th Century and Beyond
    Speaking of 'speaking of':

    "The punishment of wise men who refuse to take part in government, is to be governed by the unwise" -Plato

    Thanks for the well written article James!
    Jan 05 10:37 am |Rating: +7 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • America's Trade Is Based on Protectionism
    Excellent trade policy summary and market update, thanks!
    Jan 04 15:16 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will 2009 Bring Ring Three of the Financial Circus?
    Nice article Steven, thanks. It will be interesting to see how much steam this rally will have going into inauguration. am selling into it and going short.
    Jan 04 14:30 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview
    "One indicator he does like is to track the number of stocks down 50% from their highs..."

    Just curious, isn't this indicator most useful when forward looking earnings are positive and not negative? It seems there are not too many formal indicators that are useful in this environment other than technical chart analysis pointing toward SP 600.
    Jan 04 14:21 pm |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 2008: Ten Unforgettable Days
    Happy New Year SA Editors! I've enjoyed your site and loyal bloggers and look forward to more lively posts in 2009.

    I'd add the March 17th collapse of Bear Stearns on your list. IMHO, this marked a turning point from in the public's understanding of just how bad the deleveraging process was...and just how very dishonest the I-banks were to their shareholders.
    Dec 31 18:24 pm |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Can Deflation Be Avoided?
    @ patio & UserX,
    When the market has given back the gains it harvested from the housing bubble, then the housing recession will come to an end. IMHO we are there are near there. I would propose that market asset decay beyond that could signal the beginning of deflation. Again, imho, what we've seen so far is Recession, S&P below 750 will be Deflation.
    Dec 31 17:45 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • An astonishing 60% of Americans who now think a depression is likely will almost surely be disappointed, Savant Capital says. "The truth is that the current situation is nowhere near that bad."
    Michael66 directs to an article on the powerful deflationary pressures at work today, interesting article, worth the read.

    Any thoughts on the Fed's chances at avoiding deflation by creating massive inflation? Will they be able to kill the $US, or is deflation and thus a strong $US inevitable?


    On Dec 30 02:33 PM Michael66 wrote:

    > Here is an interesting, informative and relevant article:
    >
    > www.marketoracle.co.uk...
    Dec 30 16:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • An astonishing 60% of Americans who now think a depression is likely will almost surely be disappointed, Savant Capital says. "The truth is that the current situation is nowhere near that bad."
    Actually, Savant is right, no Depression in 2009....[it will be 'officially' declared in 2010.]
    Dec 30 14:33 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
  • An astonishing 60% of Americans who now think a depression is likely will almost surely be disappointed, Savant Capital says. "The truth is that the current situation is nowhere near that bad."
    @ Eli, then I guess Savant would say they will 'almost surely be' VERY disappointed! :)

    If it's November of 1929 (see chart below) and Savant glibbly dismisses a depression, who would have been disappointed?

    dshort.com/charts/bear...
    Dec 30 14:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View news story

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