Griz's Comments Stream Stats
- 58 Comments, 19
, 4 
- Total Comment Stream rating - = 15
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Little House on PIMCO’s Prairie
From Crunch to Catatonia
Depression, PMI and China
Historically, these economic retrenchments happen once every life-span and the last one was just about 75 years ago...
Are Home Prices Still Too High?
A) A $500K house, $100K down, $400K financed with fixed 30-year @ 4% = $1,900/month payment.
B) Same house purchased for $300K, same $100K down but now only needing a $200K mortgage, let's say financed using a 30-year fixed mortgage at 11% = $1,900/month payment.
Although the resulting monthly payments are identical, the inputs are very different indeed. Your risk is obviously lower putting less principal at stake. The lower rates argument is merely another desperate attempt by those trying to prop up real estate (i.e. keep it still up in bubble territory). People have figured out this realtor payment spin...
Also, a generational demographic shift is about to put added downward pressure on house prices; see the following article for an indepth analysis on the upcoming boomer-shift:
www.informaworld.com/s...
Wrong Great Depression Lessons Will Haunt Equities in 2009
Kunst you got it exactly!
On Jan 01 04:41 PM Kunst wrote:
> Like more heroin is the answer for the addict.
Wrong Great Depression Lessons Will Haunt Equities in 2009
Lenders, Loan Modifications and Coming 'Cram-Downs'
The Brighter Side of Falling Home Prices
The Housing Market Will Improve with Lower Prices, not Lower Interest Rates
A) A $500K house, $100K down, $400K financed with fixed 30-year @ 4% = $1,900/month payment.
B) Same house purchased for $300K, same $100K down but now only needing a $200K mortgage, let's say financed using a 30-year fixed mortgage at 11% = $1,900/month payment.
Although the resulting monthly payments are identical, the inputs are very different indeed. Your risk is obviously lower putting less principal at stake. The lower rates argument is merely another desperate attempt by those trying to prop up real estate (i.e. keep it still up in bubble territory). People have figured out this realtor payment spin...
U.S. Consumption Seems to Be the Greatest Currency
A Tale of Two Housing Bubbles
www.informaworld.com/s...
A Tale of Two Housing Bubbles
Ultrashort Real Estate Drop Demonstrates Unlimited Faith in a Recovery
Fundamentals Remain Negative This Week
If I stay on the sidelines and I am wrong then what could I miss out on? A 35% run-up to say S&P 1,200 (there's no way we'll be marching any higher than that back to 1,500 or even new highs any time soon).
If I jump in and I am wrong then how much could I lose... Could the S&P get cut in half again, and again? I know that in "normal recessions" a 43% correction would probably be closing in on the bottom, but is this a normal recession or is it going to be worse? How much worse? Will this one be truely multi-generational? The kind of world-wide economic contraction that they say only comes around after the people who have experienced the last "big one" have all died off.
I'm ok right now but am afraid if I lose a lot more then what financial situation I might be in. The upside just isn't so attractive right now vs what could yet potentially still happen on the downside.
Negative Psychology Tightening Grip on U.S. Consumers - Pew