keithpiccirillo

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  • Starting HDFC Bank on Satyam Scandal
    Nice logic, buying stock on news of a recently tarnished stock in that same country.
    Chart looked good even prior to today.
    BKX was off todayand VIX deteriorated.
    I'm in on this tomorrow, as a trade, the risk is concurrent with C or any of it's ilk.
    Little divis don't matter for a trade, but they're growing their revenues, although the beta is pretty high at 1.7 for longs.
    Thanks for the reminder, I can use today's DUG winnings to pay for this shindig.

    finance.yahoo.com/q/ta...=
    Jan 07 21:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Monsanto Earnings - Quite Awesome
    I saw it elevate prior to opening this morning and didn't chase it, and all day it trended up.
    So it goes.
    This company is the Dr. StrangeLove company for seeds, selling twice the rate of its competitors and a major sponsor of that Svalbard deep frozen site backed by Bill Gates and a few select corporations and Norway.


    rastaseed.wordpress.co.../
    Jan 07 20:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Green Investments: Lots of Alternatives, with Big Names for Safety
    Thanks for the homework assignment, though I am somewhat familiar with the lesson and yes the answers to the test just seem to keep changing.
    I use GEX for my solar exposure and Vestas instead of FAN.
    Vestas has performed very well, and from the first week of December until just recently it kept moving as oil went down - which broke the pattern of trading together and surprised me.
    Jan 06 21:39 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Cramer Is Right about Ultrashort ETFs
    I usually only read some of Cramer's thoughts on the recap, but played and watched the 5 minute segment.
    I have played SKF, DUG, EEV, and SRS and have never held any one of them for more than 5 days.
    I look for oversold conditions on MACD, stochastics, with an elevated VIX that is rising, along with a few other conditions. The rebalancing overnight with accompanying gappage is tough to deal with.
    Personally I think SRS should be the best one to trade in the first quarter of 2009, but we will have to see if these securities will get clamped down on by the SEC. Just take a number.
    A small part of my IRA has turned into a casino and that is not what I intended.
    Paul Tudor Jones said, "Losers average losers".
    I always sell if it starts to head south, and let the winners run a bit with trailing stoppage. ETF's can trend a lot, so one has to make a pretty educated guess that it is and will continue to trend up.
    Looking forward to more stable markets though, that's for sure.
    Dec 23 20:13 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ultrashort Real Estate Drop Demonstrates Unlimited Faith in a Recovery
    Karen Finerman of Fast Money said to buy it below $60 a day or two ago.
    If you look at the list of companies Flash Gordon has included, these are the very good REIT's, as Kenneth Heebner of CGMFX had at least 2 or 3 from this list.
    I still play SRS, but pick my spots.
    A continued push for a drop in mortgage interest rates does not help real estate short psychology.
    Dec 17 21:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 3 Ways to Play the Dollar's Reaction to Monday's Manufacturing Report
    OK then. Thanks for the article.
    We will now in about 20 hours how the Daily FX idea worked out for Monday's start, but nothing is static and it may be a non event - dollar hasn't moved crazy like equities and there are a myriad of factors that move the dollar.
    A trader who charts may go with the UUP as its been down 5 straight days or 4.6%.
    However a lower interest rate on Wednesday would probably drop the dollar and it may be a Tuesday evening play of the UDN.
    We have more deficits in the near future as imports should exceed exports for quite a while. Our credit status will not get better which will hurt the dollar too.
    Dec 14 18:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Market Not Giving Microsoft Credit for Its True Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation
    That's right, earnings everywhere are going lower.
    So when is Gate's going to stop flooding the market with his shares, and will this stock ever perform without a search engine?
    Dec 13 14:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Where the Obama Stimulus Plan Helps Tech
    He is "right in San Francisco". And why shouldn't the inner cities get this opportunity? We clearly want that future segment of our populace to spend less time in jails/prisons eventually and become better participants in society.
    As for the stock plays, I am waiting for the re-test that I believe will come in the next 6 months where many infrastructure stocks will have to be sold off yet again.
    Dec 13 14:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • International Overdiversification
    Thanks for bringing this to our attention.
    Most funds are "watered down" enough with diversification, and that is why I use a focused growth mutual fund and play individual stocks for the dividends in the S & P (JNJ & MSFT) whom I think can have limited downside and it's worked out fairly well in this recession so far...
    Dec 13 14:12 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Heebner Turns Really Bullish on Market
    Thanks for revisiting Mr. Heebner, just as you said you would.
    As for Mr Heebner's belief in a cyclical market recovery, apparently he thinks stocks will recover as falling prices coupled will falling incomes will force a reduction in consumption with resulting equilibrium through an increase in aggregate demand (government infrastructure spending).
    This will be implemented when and if the government interventions into the money centers and credit availability to those worthy reoccurs.
    America will have to become a nation much better at saving to help mitigate our trade imbalance.
    The late bear/early bull scenario that he envisions may be rooted not in a cyclical market recovery but an economic fluctuation model wherein when money supply and liquidity become sufficient worldwide with low interest rates.
    The resultant improved stock market cycle could then occur.
    I keep looking to the Baltic Dry Index, China and dry goods and iron ore as a signal that conditions have improved and change is imminent.
    Perhaps Mr. Heebner also believes in political business cycle strength, wherein a charismatic new administration with its expansionary policy could also be the impetus to turn market emotion and psychology.
    I was just at the Markov Processes International site, and give you credit for being able to deduce such things pertaining to a fund's probable sector holdings.
    These dynamic modeling styles of analysis by data mining return streams, performing regression analysis, apparently can tell not only what sectors a fund's allocation is, but also if a hedge fund has strayed from its stated goals and objectives and is currently in much trouble!
    I have started looking deeper into the Focus Fund's Sharpe ratio, and his beta and do not see any disparity that raises alarm as compared with other fund managers of this type risk in present recessionary period.
    His Alpha has always been very good.
    However, the low Treynor ratio of 2.14 seems poor as a ranking criteria.
    Decades ago I started a masters degree in Research Measurement and Evaluation in Connecticut but only got halfway through it, so you have my respect and admiration.
    Keep up your succinct and thoughtful articles.
    Dec 11 20:05 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • McDonald's: A Billion Sold, but What about 2009?
    The "Golden arches" have that classic moat to protect their best of breed status. I never owned it other than in a fund, but feel a bit better with this stock than one of the tobacco or vice stocks. It is disappointing that they do have the kids brainwashed though . When their clown mascot is more recognizable than any political leader to a 5 year old what does that translate to?
    Future sales stability and brand loyalty.
    In 2002-3 when they were building too much and stores were dirty and lines too long, they regrouped. I think their Paul Newman's coffee has bitten into Starbucks share of the morning crowd which must have hurt already plunging sales numbers via the sub prime crisis and resultant job losses in the key states of Nevada, Ca. and Fla.
    I grind my own beans every morning.
    It took eons for Starbucks to figure out people don't want to wait too long while the patron in front of them glosses over the jazzed up treats behind the glass.
    As always, good post.
    Dec 09 22:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Mini Ride of the Phoenix
    Dr. Hui,
    Thanks for the article about The Phoenix Effect, it is a term I rarely hear, and seldom see.
    Perhaps the best way the individual investor could reap these benefits would be to make an initial entry, or a switch into an existing no load small cap mutual fund with an initial entry and then monthly amounts in ever increasing amounts over a 3-4 month period.
    It would be very difficult for the layman to perform so much fundamental analysis and even if one could, the metrics in our current environment with so many stain glassed windows would make these on-the- brink" businesses masquerading as stocks, nearly indiscernible from each other. As TraderMark has pointed out, they mimic each other like twins.
    Timing rarely works, but if the BankIndex (KBX) , Vix, Libor rates, housing rate hope, and infrastructure spending are all in improving and accelerating modes, perhaps this is how to catch the Phoenix effect from the recent market lows.
    Most of us have so much committed and re-committed at a loss, perhaps the re-test entry point needs to be 7500 Dow, and 750 S & P.
    I squinted, and missed the infrastructure moves of Nov. 10 when the engineering firms like JEC, FWLT, FLR and their brethren rose like a beaming sun facing east.
    My triggers are now daily readied for that next big drop when it comes.
    I cannot gauge the sector or countrie(s) I believe will likely lead us out of this. One would think it would be the money centers but this is not certain with so much government involvement.
    I tend to believe owning emerging markets, and Asian stocks would be the most rewarding strategies in the next quarter or two.
    As Roubini has said, we are a nation of first consumers and first debtors, but will now have to become a nation of last consumers and last resort debtors, savers, and producers of something sustainable.
    It saddens me to see how we demanded so many short lived disposable products from world markets, that ended in recycling centers, or worse, landfills.
    The supply/demand shift paradigm is being made to the BRIC countries as the world will become more realigned with economies of scale and more global "evenness".
    Dec 04 21:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • A Back of the Envelope Look at Infrastructure
    And why wouldn't FLR & JEC be the same?
    Same industry, betas of 1.6 and 1.5.
    27% ROE for FLR & 20% for JEC.
    One size fits all. I too am looking for a tailor made suit in an "off the rack" kind of stock market world.
    I held JEC from May through July and felt like Jack get fleeced at the well tumbling down that mountain ever after.
    These things have popped, and if we get a retest therew may only be a 1 day chance to get in again near that Nov. 20 low.
    I would pick the one with Chinese contract exposure as they are at least able to pay the bill.
    Dec 03 20:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Rolling the Dice at the Real Estate Casino
    You did real well Mark, the satire of the last paragraph perhaps a bit too overstated.
    Time to plan my SRS entry point for tomorrow, gotta go.
    Nov 24 19:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Microsoft: Four-Stay Buy, But on a Dip
    Thanks.
    I have been buying shares to add to my position.
    My buy trigger has been set for $20.65, the lower part of its recent range.
    I don't think it will get filled until we retest, which is fine.
    This is not a stock I think will be a future winner based on past 10 years.
    Having said that, one would think that they could press their advantage with their large cash position to create better marketing economies of scale.
    Nov 11 18:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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