Jase

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  • Lookee Here: An IPO Filing!
    Two words: short candidate. (No pun intended.)
    Dec 24 10:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor
    Dream on? I began my short position at $161 back on September 8th. I've covered only a partial portion of my position (at $86/share; then added to my short again at $112). Do you have any idea of how many longs are trapped above $120 per share? You've had two failed moves to attempt to capture the old floor at $115.44. Go on, pull up a chart of AAPL. Notice the pending death cross of the 200MA over the 600MA? The pissy 50-day moving average is now just north of $100/share. Let me guess, you think the lows were put in at $79.14? You're ready to cite how iPhones sales are such and such, and the monthly revenue from iPhones contracts are going to fatten up that balance sheet, and the future is all lollipops and unicorns and rainbows blah blah. Here's a newflash, homeslice: it's all priced in--that's *why* it traded at $180 to $200 all those months ago. Do yourself a favour: sell your stock or go short. 12-times current forward is at around $60/share--I wouldn't even think about touching AAPL until those levels are reached. Wouldn't surprise me to see it trading in the high 40's or 50's at some point in 2009 on ratings/revenue downgrades. Whatever the case, good luck with your trades.


    On Dec 17 12:16 PM brewer wrote:

    > "I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those
    > levels."
    >
    > Dream on.
    Dec 17 14:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor
    Arbitrage Cons.,

    Re. "... will go down with Thomas Edison"--that's a bit of a stretch. Taking nothing away from Jobs' ability to dream, design, think, simplify, outsmart, incessantly craft, and relentlessly persist... placing him in the same category as Edison, in my view, is a grossly inaccurate comparison. Names that perhaps ought to accompany Edison (or perhaps names that Edison ought to accompany, in no particular order) might include: Bardeen, Brattain, Shockley, Townes, Schawlow, Maiman, Tesla, Babbage, Turing, S. Christie, J. Fleming, Kemeny, Kurtz--you get the idea, this is a long list.

    I acknowledge that my list is comprised of arbitrary names whose contributions vary considerably. Steve Jobs is an entrepreneur, calling him an inventor is unfair to those who truly invent. While Jobs created the first Apple computer, true elegance in computer design was first demonstrated by Jef Raskin. Jef Raskin is the real, long forgotten, creator of the Macintosh computer. Many are surprised to learn that on several occasions Jobs actually attempted to thwart the Macintosh development efforts at Apple.

    Yes, Jobs is a vicious CEO and shrewd businessman, an excellent designer, and a master of aesthetics. He is, however, not an inventor.

    Glad to hear that you were able to pick up Apple at $16 when it rose from the ashes. I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels.
    Dec 17 03:30 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
    Roga,

    Listen, I'm having trouble with a math problem. Can you help me prove this: "Every even integer greater than 2 can be written as the sum of two primes."

    Thanks
    Nov 18 18:52 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom
    Sean M,

    Take a look at Jeff Rubin's (CIBC World Markets) report that attempts to provide hard evidence that each major economic downturn this century was immediately preceded by a spike in oil prices. Note that I'm not saying that *I* believe that this is the case, I'm just pointing out a potential body of evidence that argues the point counter to yours. Make up your own mind. Here's the link to the report:

    research.cibcwm.com/ec...

    The chart/data that I'm citing is found at the bottom of page 4.
    Nov 18 16:30 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
    vladimir,

    It's difficult to respond to your post as your initial comments are "I don't know what your exact method is, but..." then the remainder of your diatribe goes on to challenge what you imagine my method to be.

    What shall I comment on--the actual methods that I use or the words that you've put in my mouth?

    When you elect to pelt me with comments like: "You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy" and "Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8 trades?" and "I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest", it suggests to me that you're having a conversation with yourself, not me.

    Here's the spill:

    1. The eight trades that I listed weren't the only trades that I've made this year, there were many more trades, and many, many were losers. Each losing trade, however, incurred a maximum loss of 6% on only a partial initial position size. In other words, if I intend to commit a total of $100,000 to a position, I will never lose more than $1800 plus commissions. No exceptions. I add to all successful positions using very strict guidelines and I'm not afraid of taking partial profits.

    2. Yes, I do this full-time. I lost $30M earlier this year when the financing for my software company fell through (investment bank went tits up due to subprime exposure, among other things). The capital that I use to trade is all that I have left in this world--so I take trading very, very seriously.

    3. I don't care about profits. All I care about is managing risk.

    4. I have patience. More than 70% of my gains are realized in the last 20% of the time that I hold my positions. I'm still working at mastering the skill of sitting still; this is really, really hard. That said, I've been taking profits much more quickly during October and November. I'm sitting in a relatively high % cash right now.

    5. Yes, I'm still in the market. Of the eight trades that I've mentioned, I'm still holding the BRK/B short, still holding USD against CAD, and I'm still short crude oil... there are a few others.

    In your comments, you used the word "believe" several times. I don't trade what I believe. Frankly, the market doesn't give a shit what I think. I only trade what's right there in front of me, what I'm seeing occur. If a trade isn't going my way and I'm stopped out (100% of my trades have stops in place, no exceptions), all it means is that I was wrong. That's it, I was wrong. So what? I try to let it go like a bad first serve in tennis, my second serve doesn't have to be affected by my poor first serve--unless I choose to let it adversely affect me. Hopefully you get the idea.

    I'm not going to comment on technical analysis here because my description of it won't make you understand it any more than you think you do now. As for being special, believe me, I'm not. I'm just interested in making some money and repaying my investors so that I can get back to my research in number theory.

    Best of luck in your future trades.



    On Nov 17 08:30 PM Vladimir Senkov wrote:

    > Jase,
    >
    > Congrats on your 8 good trades and your high YTD return.
    > Why do you think that any of this has something to do with TA?<br/>I
    > don't know what your exact method is, but most TA methods I'm familiar
    > with are an attempt at pattern recognition. Human brain is very good
    > at confirmation bias. If you already believed that gold was "expensive"
    > your TA would always confirm it.
    > Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8
    > trades? Have you closed all of them yet? My guess is no, since you
    > are still in the market.
    > You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy.<br/>I
    > guess if it's so easy you have probably already quit your day job.
    >
    > I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest. What
    > makes you so special? I know we are all special, but seriously?<br/>
    >
    > Good luck climbing the easy money mountain!
    >
    > On Nov 17 07:26 PM Jase wrote:
    Nov 18 01:06 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
    chrisb,

    Your comments regarding the futility of TA are amusing. "And did any squiggle-people predict the current bear market?" Yes, many did. But most of them wouldn't bother telling you about it. Unfortunately, you still think you understand what technical analysis is by reading about it from a Wikipedia page while eating a sandwich. It takes time to learn the art behind the science; in time you'll see the charts in a completely different way. This is about as kind a message as I can proffer considering that I gain nothing by telling you this. If you must know, this year I "used the squiggles" to:

    - short gold (DZZ) at $970/ounce;
    - short Encana (ECA) at $92/share;
    - buy SKF at $89/share (more than once);
    - short Goldman (GS) at $137/share;
    - short crude oil (HOD.TO) at $119/barrel;
    - sell CAD against USD at parity;
    - short SPY at 130.00/share (via SDS); and last but not least
    - short BRK/B at $4390/share.

    The list goes on. How many long-side trades do you see? I've only been doing this for 18 months and my measly initial couple of hundred grand bankroll isn't big enough to crack the billion mark yet; this and this alone is the reason that I'm writing you--I'm still in the market. My 135% year to date return, however, suits me just fine. Doubt me? Send me your postal address and I'll fedex you my trade tickets. Take this advice: keep your toilet shut before discounting a method you know absolutely nothing about.
    Nov 17 19:26 pm |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point?
    Price target is 101.70 +/- 1.90 by February 20, 2009.
    Nov 15 13:07 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath
    Anastos,

    I'm fully aware that SKF tracks the Dow Jones Financial Index. I'm also fully aware that ProShares calculates the NAV based on pricing of the underlying at 4PM EST. My point was simply that the closing price of the underlying (DJUSFN) at market close yesterday was still below the closing price back on July 14th (approx. 270 vs. 287, respectively).
    Oct 09 07:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • IBM: Reassurance from Big Blue
    Investa Mania,

    IBM is clueless. Do you really think that beyond their 1-year outlook that revenue will remain steady? Way too much exposure to emerging markets, way too optimistic an outlook. IBM should be trading below $40 if we're going to price in what's in store for them in this economy. Take a look at SAP. It's tanking. IBM is extremely overvalued. I wouldn't pay more than 5x forward for this bloated thing. Want to change my mind? Do two things for me: tell IBM to triple their dividend; and show me some earnings that don't rely so heavily on luck in the currency markets.
    Oct 09 03:50 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath
    SKF is a bargain below $250. There's a tracking discrepancy that was caused by the short selling ban. Think about it: SKF should now be tracking above $300. It made its all-time high of $211 when UYG (its counterpart) made its all-time low of 14.08 back in July. UYG has since tanked more than 30%... do the math. SKF should be trading above $300 as I type this.
    Oct 09 03:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 3 Stocks That Are Begging To Be Bought
    Sorry mate, I'm of the opinion that you've severely underestimated the severity of the conditions of the overall market. Apple isn't a buy until it reaches $45 to $50. Google is a buy at $130 to $150. And Priceline will dump another 40 to 50%, at least, from current levels. All continue to be short candidates. The market has been using these as stores of value within their portfolio for years. As the market continues unwind and convert to cash, these marquee names are the first to be liquidated. There are an abundance of sellers at the moment. Don't believe me? Let's talk in a month.
    Oct 05 23:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
    I share your view regarding most of these. I disagree, however, with your call regarding QCOM. Rather than bank on the mobile chipsets, I'd rather play the terrestrial and mobile backhaul/edge network angle via AKAM. Akamai moves 1/5th of the planet's daily internet traffic--despite continued competition in this space, it's exceedingly undervalued.
    Oct 05 21:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • European Banks To Consider - Barron's
    RBS is still on shaky ground, IMHO. UBS, however, has been among the most proactive in removing gangrene assets. UBS may continue to have minor write downs (minuscule, in comparison to what they purged earlier in the year)... I strongly believe that this is already priced in; it's a bargain under $35 per share and they'll benefit from any European bailout. If their future was bleak, then news released at the recent shareholder meeting last Thursday would have caused it to plummet. The opposite happened--it gained strength on heavy volume on one of the darkest trading days of the year.
    Oct 05 21:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity
    Agreed, Petrochina (PTR) is astoundingly cheap right now. Their dividends have generally been over $2 per share, I don't see this changing; PTR will continue to pay to wait. Here are some more stats on PTR (pardon the formatting):

    Total Returns %, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, YTD
    Stock, 205.8, -1.4, 60.9 ,79.1, 29.2, -43.0
    +/- Industry, 171.3, -21.5, 36.0, 58.6, 2.2, -11.0
    +/- S&P 500, 179.4, -10.4, 57.9, 65.4, 25.7, -17.8

    They are down over 60% from their 52-week and 5-year highs. Global recession, mild correction, major correction, upcoming depression--whatever your viewpoint is, China isn't going to stop growing. It may slow somewhat, but it will not stop. McKinsey's findings:

    "By 2025, an additional 5 million buildings — including up to 50,000 skyscrapers, or the equivalent of 10 New York Cities — could be built in China, the McKinsey Global Institute, a U.S. consulting firm, predicted in a March report.

    China could end up with as many as 221 cities that each have a population above 1 million, as a result of hundreds of millions of farmers moving to urban areas."

    Add to this fact that a few hundred new vehicles (300M+) will be added to Chinese roads by 2015--this growth story may slow, but it WILL NOT stop. We are looking at the world's new super power jockeying for position.

    Disclosure: I'm long platinum (ELR.TO, the commodity itself, and a few ETF's; catalytic converters will still be in heavy demand going forward), I'm long Petrochina for the reasons stated above, and I'm long steel and infrastructure (MT is strategically positioned to service China's growing demand).

    In my view, this global market meltdown--though seemingly severe right now--will look like a hiccup when viewed in context in five years from now.

    The world is not ending. We are just about to commence the biggest bull market in the history of civilization.

    Bottoms are violent.
    Oct 05 18:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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