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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know Newsby SA Editor Rachael Granby- Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought.
- Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only.
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Wednesday, October 15.Bullish Calls:Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
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Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
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Caterpillar's Troubling Bond Issue
But a "bank" without access to deposits for capital and the Fed discount rate for reserves...
CAT has to borrow the money they lend.
I Suggest this model may be broken. That is basically what BearStearns/Lehman/AIG... etc. did...
The supposed "smartest" people at GS and Morgan Stanley have given up and converted to the commercial bank model, so can CAT keep it going if the I-banks can't?... I think you have to take this into consideration when looking at a CAT/GE/GM etc...who depend on borrowing $ to lend to others....
If they get out or are forced out of finance, can they line up banks willing to lend to their equipment customers with underwriting standards that will still result in previous sales volumes?
Headwinds Index: How Long Can Financials Outperform Energy?
"The hedge funds have to short something, lets give them something to short, lets make it impossible to short financials thru a rules change, and give them no other choice."
Hint: Take a look at the 1 year charts of commodities vs. financials and see which one looks like its time to sell.....we're only 2 weeks into it....
We're Nearing Crunch Time for Oil
On 5/2 Nymex Volume on the June 08 Crude oil Contract was
277,973 ( I assume that is contracts). At 1,000 bbls per contract
that is 277.97 Million bbls. that day, other days in the last weeks have had similar volumes.
Global oil consumption is 85 Million bbls. per day.
US consumption is 20 million bbls per day.
Why would the US futures mkt. have to trade over 3 times the actual consumption of the underlying for the globe, and over 13 times the US consumption on a given day?
I'm not even considering add'l volume on foreign exchanges and OTC trade in oil.
US airlines (big users) ex-Southwest dont even hedge, btw who does hedge? FEDEX? UPS? JB Hunt? YRC? CSX? Doesnt seem like they do come earnings time.
If my above assumptions are correct. I have to also assume the big volume is from speculation.
$8700 to go long 1,000 bbls. (~$115,000 value) for NYMEX.
I am a non-professional trying to improve my understanding of this oil issue. If any of my assumptions are incorrect I would appreciate feedback.
Thx