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Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly
You can buy cars under $10,000.
Oil will go higher at some point....this is all demand destruction from the financial fall out....oil is just trading alongside the stock market it seems. Just be patient...wait for the investment to dry up in new projects...which it is....and wait for the declines from conventional oil to set in.....pick up the cheap shares today...collect the dividends...and wait.
On Dec 08 06:41 PM Wadhamite wrote:
> I am awaiting the day when China produces and sells in the USA a
> $10,000 fuel-efficient small car. Does anyone really doubt that it
> will happen? When it does, the implications for "big oil" and "Detroit
> 3" should be obvious. And, in today's cheap-oil and auto-bailout
> scenario, there might be just enough time for America to beat the
> Chinese. If we lose this opportunity, it's gone for a long time.
Roger Wiegand: 'Severe Bull Market' Ahead for Gold
I could live my life without ever owning a precious metal. But I cannot live without food, heat, water, and shelter. I will do anything for these items....any money or work will have to be for these items. What will be in short supply in the future. I am thinking probably energy, possibly food, and clean water.
Sure gold and silver may rise during inflation or deflation......but history has shown that inflation of the money supply is the long trend.......buy the assets during the deflation period for the super long haul....and you should be a winner. Buy the producers/miners as well at steep discounts. Get some big dividend payers.
Technology is our savior and our enemy at the same time.
Just my .02.
$300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview
But I can say that oil is getting heavier.....we are going to deeper waters, taking on more expensive projects....and exporting countries are all cannabolizing their exports with growing internal demand....and/or declining production aside from a few countries.
in 5-7 yrs....$300 is easily doable.
The deep sea oil fields will be getting smaller and smaller....mexico will be a net importer of oil....all new hybrids or NG cars will not be phased in to make up the lost amount of oil...etc.etc.etc
Reevaluating Coal
and as stvcomment or a look at their PEG ratio...a measly .44 means this sucker is underpriced and going higher.
I don't see coal prices drastically decreasing anytime soon (next few yrs) in fact, peak exports of oil and the introduction of electric cars by 2010 could have robust pricing for a very long time.
Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros
If you whip out the 10 best stocks over the last 10 years....I am willing to bet almost all of them have had corrections of over 30-40% on their way to returning thousands if not tens of thousands of percents. of returning 30-200 baggers over the 10 year period.
Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now
infastructure is there.
Control pollution at the power plants......add whatever you want to generate the power. its much more resiliant than NG cars.
You can add coal power plants, NG, Nuclear, wind solar, etc.
Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now
I mean think about all the energy lost to gather the energy....transmist the energy...and then use energy to break the molecules apart. How much power actually gets stored? like 10-25% of the initial amount of the source? This doesn't seem very efficient at all....battery technology today is MUCH more efficient than that. basically limited to the 35-40% loss of the transmission, and a little to charge the batteries.
NG may have large reserves.....and the E&P companies are proving up large reserves of shale gas. But what is the EROEI on shale gas? Are the flow rates comparable to conventional gas? Do we have enough rigs to drill to maintain growth?
We know from oil that there is a lot of shale out there....but the EROEI is low.....and the cost of infastructure is high......and to do any meaningful addition of FLOW rates to the existing production is difficult.
I feel this is the same for shale gas...although I do own the shale E&P companies for investment.
efficiency and flow rates.......
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
Energy Demand: China vs. the World
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
I think the argument for peak oil happening right now is legit. let's review some things happening in the industry.
1) Conventional sources are depleting...they have been since the first well ever drilled. But the flow rates of convential oil are flat at best....and most likely declining.
2) The decline rates need to be absorbed and reversed for peak oil to be only a theory, therefore unconventional sources need to be developed in order to reverse the decline of conventional oil.
3) Each year oil production goes higher.....the declines also go higher from the existing base. Let's say you have a steady decline rate of 6% on the existing fields....if you produce 85 MBPD...you need 5.1 MBPD just to remain flat. if you produce 100MBPD...you need 6 MBPD to remain flat....and this number grows exponentially on the way up. its almost like trying to travel the speed of light and your mass approaches infinity the faster you travel.
4) Each passing year high EROEI oil is being replaced with lower EROEI oil. this can be from the same exact oil field (heavier oils are at the bottom of the well and need water + pressure to be lifted) and the low hanging fruit is taken first from the oil sands or anywhere else....and replaced with harder to extract or mining operations.
5) lower EROEI projects yield less return and make it less economical to produce....raising production costs.
6) Less free energy to do work results from all the above....either decreased total production, replacing high EROEI oil with low EROEI oil with flat production, etc.
We are seeing the industry bomb rushing oil shales, oil sands, and deep sea deposits. This indicates that all conventional oil open to major oil companies and most national oil companies are found....otherwise the high margin easy to pump oil would be developed....and is being developed. This is proof in itself....although I believe world oil production could be lifted to higher levels if the major private oil companies had access to all area's....although the decline rates on the backside of the curve would be much more viscious.
I think peak oil is much easier to see once its in the rear view mirror.....but replacing 5 MBPD year after year for every single year is pretty difficult to do. look at the projects coming online....and we aren't seeing anywhere close to that number coming online.
We would need to add a cumulative 25 MBPD production of new oil the next 5 years to remain flat.......where is this going to come from? I don't see this happening with oil sands or shales....as the above ground infastructure isn't in place to grow that quickly.....furthermor... are replacing high EROEI oil....so the number is more like 31-32MBPD since the EROEI is lower....thats 36MBPD more than what we are producing today.....and if you want to reach 100MBPD in 5 yrs...we would need to find 50 MBPD. Thats not possible in my view.
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
peak oil is not a theory but a fact.
you can only produce as much oil as the rate of regeneration. The regeneration can form pools of oil in pockets under the earth's crust....but if we could extract at infinite rates....we would hit a peak at some point (when the pools are drained) and decline to the rate of the regeneration source.
In order for peak oil to be incorrect....we would need to be able to extract a resource at infinites rates from an infinite source...otherwise peak oil is true. nothing really to argue about.
ergo sum Peak oil is fact....its just a matter of when.
and we may never hit the peak rate of extraction in terms of physical limitation of equipment.....because most of the oil becomes uneconomical to produce at some point....and alternatives come online to make oil outdated.
Now is it possible to find another source of energy to outdate oil? is it possible to make renewable technology solely on renewables....I dunno......but we will find out at some point.
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
peak oil is starting to be understood by most everyone on the net who reads the financial sections.
Good job to everyone.
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
Oil:)
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
youtube.com/watch?v=u5...
the person said this in 2005.
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it's forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it's producing today within the next 25 years. At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it's been finding. It's been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don't develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period. This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. "
Basically we need to find 100 MPD of new oil.....and according to the CEO of Linden oil in sweden.....its not possible.
Black Gold or Yellow Gold?
do the numbers and we actually import 73.8% of our oil.
We are also starting to import more gasoline.......we may be worse off than you think.