Roger Nusbaum

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Reports of Equities' Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Lots of comments, thanks. I am not saying the paradigm has shifted. I am saying that if it is (not what I think is happening BTW) we can't know it while it is happening.

I try to choose my words carefully lower prices (what I do say) is not the same thing as cheap (what I DON'T say).

Funny that one or two think I am too bullish as I call it a bear market rally. I will say I do not think these are end times.
Jan 05 14:15 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Stick with Covered Calls

On Jan 04 07:51 AM Tom Armistead wrote:
"if I am assigned on the puts I have the shares I own available to meet the obligation using margin"

assignment of puts results in buying shares, I'm not sure I follow what you mean about having the shares if assign on your puts.

> Good article.
>
> One additional strategy you didn't mention would be covered combinations,
> owning the shares and selling equal amounts of puts and calls. The
> theory is that the stock can't go both directions at once, so at
> least one of the options sold is gravy. The strategy is attractive
> at times of high volatility. Owning 300 shares, I might sell 3 calls
> and 2 puts so as to have a little cushion, the plan is if I am assigned
> on the puts I have the shares I own available to meet the obligation
> using margin. I agree about not using margin, but by matching the
> puts sold against shares owned it gets around tracking the cash used
> to secure the puts.
>
> On selling calls against LEAPS, it's a good strategy for what I think
> is a market bottom because it provides leverage. Using a stable,
> dividend paying stock, and buying the LEAP fairly far in the money,
> the time cost is not that great and can be recouped by selling short
> term out of the money calls against the LEAP. AN example of the
> type of stock I use for this would be IBM or JNJ.
>
Jan 04 13:28 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

so expecting a bear market rally makes me a cock-eyed optimist? ok then.

String, are you the same guy who emailed me at TSCM about this article about TBT for TSCM? www.thestreet.com/_yah...;cm_cat=FREE&c...
Um I didn't recommend the fund. If your knickers are in a twist over a theoretical post about pairing TBT and TLT then you would be up on TLT. Other than that I don't think I've written about TBT so not sure what your problem is.

I did not predict 2% for ten years and the like and I expected higher rates but I have no idea what you are so worked up about.

PTR44 I wish more aspects of the market could broken down that simply, it would make the task much easier.

Bobbowhite, "younger writer?" too young...I will take that in a heartbeat but I'm not sure why your having endured the Great Depression means there cannot be a bear market rally.

As far as evidence, most bear market rallies are groundless--based on nothing, they just happen. What evidence would point to a rally based on nothing? If it happens people will try to find something that explains why, explaining why is less important than catching it if it happens, paraphrased from Talleb.
Jan 01 15:27 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

Glenn M, "fade" means go against. So a big fast rally, were it to come, would cause me to add the double short ETF back on. A slower less dramatic rally would lead to to believe it was a new bull and I would not go against that.

Glen S, two things one my primary obligation is to clients. Second, the saying about teaching to fish would better describe what I am trying to accomplish with the writing.

Big bear market rallies, which is what I think is going to happen are very normal events, look at how bear markets have worked before, this is far from a bold prediction. I will repeat that bear market rallies come and when they do they are not fundamental events. Do you think things were better in 1935?
Dec 30 11:18 am |Rating: +6 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

Chris B you could go to my blog and find literally hundreds of posts about my using the 200 DMA as a catalyst for defensive action, the earliest being 2004 when I first started writing.

Here is one link from summer 2007;
randomroger.blogspot.c...
and another post from Dec 2007 where I say I think a bear has started;
randomroger.blogspot.c...

Nikola, I would not say I am going after fundamentals, quite the opposite, bear market rallies happen for no reason at all when few expect it. Fundamentals, which I don't think I touch on at all, have no short term predictive value, I am not building a fundamental case at all.

I say in the post that if leadership of a rally comes from what lead before then we should probably take it as a bear market rally, ie a sucker;s rally which I think is the higher probability. if leadership comes from new areas then I would say new bull market.

Jimmy46, things getting worse can be correct and have nothing to do with where stocks go. Regardless of when, you can expect stocks to turn up before things look better.

To the comments that say we are going back to the lows, or lower, yeah, I think the same thing but that a rally comes first, IMO.
Dec 29 21:35 pm |Rating: +9 -5 |Link to Comment |View article
2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

In case it is not clear a massive rally is just that, a bear market rally which I think is more probable than a new bull. In 1935 and 1936 the Dow had a two year 72% rally.
Dec 29 11:30 am |Rating: +17 -5 |Link to Comment |View article
Random Holiday Thoughts

thank you for the holiday wishes and for reading my posts. happy holidays to you as well.

On Dec 24 11:49 AM jepittman wrote:

> Thanks for your posts. I enjoy them. Happy Holidays to you and your
> family.
Dec 24 13:08 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Analyzing Bill Miller's Fall

i did not title the piece, the SA editors did. I know his name is Bill Miller.
Dec 11 13:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Defending the 200 DMA

the context is not with each stock. it is taking defenisve action in the portfolio when the S&P 500 goes below its 200 DMA

On Dec 10 01:31 PM bigmoney wrote:

> I tried to implement something to this effect. There's a few problems
> though. In some cases, stocks cruise significantly above the 200dma,
> perhaps 30% above. Selling at a cross over represents a significant
> loss. And then I couldnt' figure out how to sell. Do I use stop
> market, stop limit, or just manually watch the market each day (or
> hour)? In addition, I've had many stocks drop 30% at opening bell,
> so a stop is doesn't help. And there's that nagging feeling that
> a sudden drop represents excessive drop, so you hang on to the stock
> hoping it recover 5%.
Dec 10 18:40 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
In Search of the Next Reserve Currency

First if this is going to happen I believe it will play out over many years, I think it has already started but to reiterate very slow moving. I too believe the euro is out in this context. The yuan makes sense to share the role with the US as it seems to becoming evermore the straw that stirs the drink. I also think something out of the GCC makes sense too, I believe demand for oil will increase, the recent numbers notwithstanding.

As far as a "new international currency in ten years" I would suggest studying how long it took the EMU to come about and get to the point of a single currency. The only way it could happen in just ten years would be some sort of global martial law which if that were the case everyone would use the dollar.
Nov 28 13:56 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier

thanks for the comments. Auto credit If you are trying to copy Harvard or Yale then I suppose so but this is just my opinion, I do not want too much riding on any one thing in case something I can't see coming hits hard. I would note that Harvard and Yale have had a different experience of late as many of their illiquid holdings have really bit them including, I believe some absolute.

On Nov 27 07:33 PM Auto Credit wrote:

> So do you include RYMFX in this 2-3% narrow category or do you think
> it deserves a higher weight? The last numbers I have show the Yale
> and Harvard endowments at 18% and 26% in the absolute returns...
> so if we're coming close to them we need 10 different things like
> RYMFX?
Nov 28 10:35 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier

MIC and BIP own assets and are generally meant to pay out an income stream off of those assets,they are not ETFs. IGF from iShares, which I own for clients is more along the lines of building the infrastructure and so would seem in line to benefit from the spending that appears to be on the way. MIC and BIP would not seem to specifically benefit from any spending plans.

On Nov 27 11:10 AM D333GS wrote:

> A question re infrastructure ETFs and Obama's upcoming infrastructure
> spending: There is some hype starting re infrastructure ETFs . From
> looking at the holdings of these ETFs, they seem hold companies that
> own the infracture. Isn't the money going to be made by the companies
> that repair the infrastructure? IE infrastructure construction companies
> like SNC & Aecon?
>
> Many thanks
>
> John
Nov 27 12:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Wrong Way to Think About Your Retirement Portfolio

really? no portfolio? you really think it is all going to zero?

On Nov 18 09:11 AM bosun.j wrote:

> The wrong way to think about your portfolio is that you will have
> a portfolio!
Nov 18 12:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Survival Guide for the Next Two Years: Preferred Stocks and Corporate Bonds

probably is quantumonline.com
Nov 04 08:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Thoughts for a Thorny Thursday

no idea if anyone should buy it--i own a little PST.
Oct 31 19:38 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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Roger Nusbaum

Comment Stream

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Reports of Equities' Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Stick with Covered Calls

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

Random Holiday Thoughts

Analyzing Bill Miller's Fall

Defending the 200 DMA

In Search of the Next Reserve Currency

Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier

Macquarie Infrastructure Trust: Use It Only as a Portfolio Diversifier

The Wrong Way to Think About Your Retirement Portfolio

Survival Guide for the Next Two Years: Preferred Stocks and Corporate Bonds

Thoughts for a Thorny Thursday

Roger Nusbaum's Comments Stream Stats