jbde

Total Rating:
+3 / 0

29 Comments

    • Tue Nov 18th 08:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?
      Too general to be news-worthy

      Why can't we get item or supplier info on actual sales?
      Someone needs to be watching this closely with instore data collectors!

      Unless, of course, you can tap the companies' register tapes being beamed to headquarters.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 08:16 AM | Rating: +3 0
      Commented on:
      Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution
      All the more reason to convert to solar and reverse the trend. They have cheap labor and can solve their own problem. Anyone who thinks solar is going away is a fool.

      As for stocks, people panic and prices get crunched - start scaling in, at the first hint of growth watch oil prices soar and all will be right - again.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 14th 08:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Canadian Solar: About to Be Eclipsed?
      CSIQ is vertically integrated and has very low margins. What effect will there be if there are in fact lower ASP's in 2009. Such skinny margins could lead to losses real quick. Right or not?

      I hold [and daytrade] LDK that was just upgraded. As a supplier of wafers and soon to be one [if not the] lowest cost producers, they are much better off. c-Si will be with us for a long time, and as wafer production costs drop, better prices can be had by module makers.

      But can CSIQ still compete by making its own wafers?
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 7th 09:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency
      C.S.- what about SunPower, they use c-Si and in huge volume - their kicker in bifacial [ability to use backlighting - reflected or diffuse]. They achieve this by photolythography [CY - as in etching circuits] to apply BOTH + and - pickups on the backside. Since the metal is very narrow, the exposed Si enables the additional PV conversion. This is all opposed to other wafer users who place one pickup on the face of the wafer and the other on the back. SPWRA is a long time player in PV and well fixed in CA with commercial and utility scale customers. The CA defeat was for an extension, thus doe not effect mandatesfor the near future [2012]. Isn't LDK a bif supplier to SPWRA?
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Reasons to Expect a Solar Boom
      borisb - what facts can you cite? If you make a statment at least have some facts to go with it, otherwise it is useless [this is a fact in itself].

      European [and now even US and China] mandates for renewable energy are real and large utilities have no problem with funding projects.

      www.getsolar.com/blog/.../

      www.spacemart.com/repo...

      www.matternetwork.com/...
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 19:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Some Stocks to Research for the Market Rebound
      Hey David, since LDK and CSIQ are 2 of your disclosed holdings - perhaps you should know its silicon not silicone.

      " UMG polysilicone solar (a much cheaper alternative to multicrystalline solar). "

      UMG is simpy the purity of the raw product - whether mono- or multi- crystalline. It's less pure, thus cheaper, than solar grade silicon. Mono- or multi- depends on how the ingot is produced. Mono is produced by growing from a seed crystal, multi is produced by solidifying molten silicon.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 08:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Some Big Moves in Tech Today
      user 1.... click the graph for enlargment, then zoon web page if necessary. Zoom should be in lower right hand corner of statusbar if using MS-IE

      LDK raised earnings - again!
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 15:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bailout Talks Lose Sight of the Cost Question
      Some say the Treasury will offer artificial high prices and hurt the taxpayer. No, it's the other way around. Treasury does not determine a price somewhere above the non-existent fire sale market prices, the sellers at auction determine the prices and here is how it works:

      Treasury announces an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.

      But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.

      The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and the credit markets open up.

      But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!

      When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.

      The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.
      [note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]

      Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.

      There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?

      This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 15:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Poor Coverage of the Republican Plan
      Some say the Treasury will offer artificial high prices and hurt the taxpayer. No, it's the other way around. Treasury does not determine a price somewhere above the non-existent fire sale market prices, the sellers at auction determine the prices and here is how it works:

      Treasury announces an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.

      But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.

      The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and the credit markets open up.

      But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!

      When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.

      The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.
      [note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]

      Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.

      There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?

      This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 11:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Paulson's Plan is About Marking to Market
      No, it's the other way around. Treasury does not determine a price somewhere above the non-existent fire-sale market prices.

      They announce an auction of say $100B and break it into 4 categories - subprime, option-arm, other prime and home equity. Each category is broken into classes that give granularity to the underlying markets of pools that make up each MBS. Could be many per category, but lets say there are 5 per category for a total of 20 'bidding' traunches.

      But it is a reverse auction, so they are 'offer' traunches. Each holder offers a price they will take for $X face value of MBS's to derive a pennies on the dollar price. For each traunch, the Treasury takes the lowest price and works upward until the total dollars allotted to the traunch have been reached. Thus 'we the people' get the best and lowest price and thus the best upside potential as the Treasury can hold the MBS's to maturity.

      The prices will be higher than where institutions have been dumping and thus marks to market will be higher. So the holders of all similar MBS's will recover asset value and credit markets open up!

      But here is what will happen after the first auction - hedge funds and vultures will offer to buy the MBS's the Treasury just bought! Why, because the auction established floor prices. Thus the Treasury makes a quick profit and recovers part of its $700B in purchasing power - yes it revolves!

      When the next auction is held, there could be lower prices in some traunches [but not likely] as some whose offers were not accepted the first time will make sure they get accepted the second time as they MUST get cash.

      The taxpayers will make out like bandits - but the Treasury cannot say this publicly.

      [note: JP Morgan gave some insight as to values of the 4 categories each in aggregate as part of their evaluation of WaMu. In a sense, they set a floor price.]

      Paulson pulled out the bazooka because of the seizing of commercial paper and not because of GS losing value, that was an effect of the collapsing credit markets. They had the bazooka all the time as simply an outline and had considered many other alternatives including, briefly, the non-workable insurance plan that. The plan offered was purposely an outline as only Congress can add the flesh - as they are doing.

      There is no need for punitive actions against the institutions holding the MBS's - they are selling at the lowest price - that's punitive enough. Remember, the institutions include pension plans, insurance companies - not just banks! They thought they were buying the best rated traunches and still found out the value has dropped. They acted prudently with the information given to them by the rating agencies. So some would want these institutions that hold the people's retirement and annuity money to give a piece to the Treasury?

      This will liquify the banking system, but will not prevent recession.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 25th 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Hedge Fund of America, LP
      The plan will buy assets in clearly defined tranches by permitting the holders to offer selling prices [reverse auction]. This means the first sale, where say $50B will be bought, will attract those who most need to raise cash - WB for example. The first $50B of the best prices are taken in for cash. The next tranches will probably yield a higher price for the sellers as the more toxic stuff will go first, but those who missed the boat the first round may again push prices down since there will still be some desparate sellers.

      Such wholesale sales are great for the buyer, and this buyer has deep pockets. You will almost immediately see hedge funds wanting to get in on the action as the prices move up in successive auctions. Watch some stuff be sold immedaitely after purchase in some cases as the smart money will realize that the next sale will be at higher prices.

      Thus the $700B credit line revolves and more than $700B in stuff can be moved from the banking system to other hands - hands other than the government as well.

      The tax payers will win and win big as only the government can lend borrow at graet long term rates and hold for long term. The FED is the lender of last result, but the government is the buyer of last result.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 08:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?
      jcordes - Polly is a nice name for a parrot and silicone makes a more realistic filling for breast inplants.
      If you cannot get it right, why post?
      try 'poly-si' or to be more versed, look up p-si and a-si.

      Stocks go up and down.
      When the whorehouse burns, the pretty ones run with the ugly ones.
      And the whorehouse IS burning.
      When the fire is out, the pretty ones have a better chance of 'employment' and the ugly ones wither away.

      Good work Dr Duru - keep it coming
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 08:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      While the Solar Sector Bottoms in the Near Term, LDK Solar Stands Out
      "and on September 3 LDK Solar delivered approximately 550 MW of multicrystalline silicon wafers to Solartech over a five-year period."

      What a strange statement - time machine involved here?

      LDK, SOL, HOKU, REC are ones to watch for solar growth as they are pure plays to wafers.

      One question - will the a-si guys eventually win out with their lower cost 'printing' processes? FSLR, ENER, Nanosolar.

      Do the 'ribbon' makers have a better production scheme? ESLR

      As c-si is currently the volume production leader, will they set the pace as more poly-si production comes online and thus wafer prices begin to drop as market continues to expand? Still good for LDK as revenues and eps outpace dropping ASPs.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 09:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings
      This one really hit somes nerves.
      1) who can find another industry growing faster?
      2) markets and stocks go up and down
      3) there's a time to be short and a time to be long - both work
      4) when the whorehouse burns the pretty ones run with the ugly ones
      5) If O wins, all stocks get slaughtered to lock in cap gains rate
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 09:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar and Oil, Part Deux
      What do you say about 2 stocks with very low PEs [08 est], especially on 2009 estimates? CSIQ [10.3, 7.6] and SOLF [15.5, 10.6] ?

      LDK supplies both with wafers, thus as LDK's production continues to ramp above expectations, it is providing more [than estimated] wafers to its customers. So if they can expand their production lines at a faster rate, they will show better than currently estimated revs and eps.

      Now that SOLF has cooled from its massive pre-eps run, it is poised to move again - and has the revenue growth and earnings growth to back it up. Remember - all of their figures are in RMB not $ and I used a rate of 7.5 in pe calculations.

      CSIQ is much more interesting as its major criticism is its low margins. Good news is that it has gotten a handle on costs related to locking in its supply chain. Even with this accomplished however, the markets still tend to relate negatively to CSIQ's habit of being extremely conservative in its estimates.

      CSIQ had a strange day last Friday bucking the trend, but continues to bounce off its rising and supportive 200dma. Technically it is getting pinched by the declining 50dma and something has to give - soon! A solid close above the 50dma should propel a breakout confirmed by a daily close above 33.24 and a weekly close aboe 33.58 - just not this week.

      Here's a different play - who makes the assmebly line equipment for doping wafers and module assembly? If there is a pure play, its revenues are indicactive of industry capacity growth.

      It's the old pick and shovel play.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»