TBill

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Finally Time to Short U.S. Treasuries?

I bot TBT a few days ago and will watch for points to buy more. IF the 'dead money' senario comes to pass, with the Fed buying long dates, we won't make money especially if you subtract the inefficiencies of the ETF. However, as we have printed up and throw several times the inflation adjusted dollars FDR threw at the Great Depression ALREADY, I think the numbers are on our side.
Jan 07 14:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why Joel Greenblatt's 'Magic Formula' Outperforms, and How to Do Even Better

My 'magic formuila' beat the pants of his 'magic fromula', logging is big profits when he was losing in '03. And I only have to cut my data off in 2006 to make me look like a wizzard. Did he get murdered on '09 like I did?
Moral: Some formulas work some of the time. Some formulas work most of the time. No formula works all of the time.
Jan 04 15:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Shorting The Bond Bubble? Hold On

Treasury issues debt, Fed buys it. Net, same as the government printing money and spending it. I think there is enough history of governments doing that around the world to know what happens next.
Jan 04 14:39 pm |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
The Importance of Accounting (SEC Does Something Useful!)

We need some exceptions from mark to market, such as waivers when the paper is performing in line with expectations, but the market makers just went out of business. Institutions in trouble, dumping paper, drive down prices with firesales, while nothing has changed to materially effect the paper.
Jan 04 14:18 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Crash Confidence Looks Bullish

I see the lines, especially the green one, hit a low level well before the Oct crash. We've been having problems with contrary indicators lately. At the end of the 3rd quarter all sorts of them were screaming 'buy!' Bill Miller and I am in the same leaky boat because of them. While they have been reliable in the past [my past goes back to the '60's], they aren't now. I suspect if they had been around in the '30's they wouldn't have worked then either. It's a different ball game, one we haven't seen in our lifetimes.
Dec 27 13:27 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Economy Now in Unprecedented Freefall

That we are doing worse than 2001, a recession that barely qualified, hardly makes what is happening today 'unpresedented'. "Historic collapse" ??? Please, if you are too young to remember, consult a history book.
Dec 11 12:11 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Our Growing Inactive Population: Demographics and the Economy

There are people leaving the US daily. They tend to be wealthy and skilled. More people are coming in; they tend to be poor and unskilled. Each is moving to a better life.

On Dec 03 11:34 AM iThinkBig wrote:

> I do not disagree but I will say this: There is nothing new under
> the sun. The people of the Roaring Twenties were not much different.
> By 1946 they were called the Greatest Generation. I had to think
> a lot about leaving the country in 2007 to avoid the pain. Nope,
> not doing it. If America was such a horrid place to be why is it
> that people globally still wish to exodus there own nations to come
> here? However, there truly is a leadership vaccum as that 1960's
> crowd has taken over Washington with there baked right out (literally)
> idealogies. I see emerging leadership my own age of 35-40 stepping
> up, although we're locked out for a short time to make a larger impact
> in the short term. I see gentlemen that are 75+ in the business community
> giving a huge final push to help America. It's not all bleak and
> I am getting a bit tired of the globe trashing America. Without us
> you would all be speaking German or Russian. Have a nice day. <br/>
Dec 04 14:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

I've been advocating this for some time now. You can see it, I see it, but our Congresscritters are so ignorant.... What do we have to do to wake them up? Problem is these actions require them to admit they made a mistake.

On Dec 04 08:46 AM eddie64 wrote:

> REAL SOLUTIONS for the economy --- still not considered:
> [1] Rescind Mark-to-Market accounting;
> [2] Rescind Sarbanes/Oxley;
> [3] Reinstate UPTICK RULE by SEC;
> NONE OF THESE COSTS A DIME!!!!!!!!!!
>
> But why do them CONGRESS IS SPENDING their way out of this mess......
> Isn't that what CONGRESS' DO??????? Hey, Congress acts as though
> they have money.........too ignorant to even know that AMERICA IS
> BANKRUPT!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Being a MILLIONAIRE once meant something--a significant amount of
> money symbolizing wealth and success. NOW, being a BILLIONAIRE has
> replaced the peasants who only have a million. Heck, TRILLIONS is
> the new amount designate for REAL MONEY ------ IN AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!
>
>
> After all, America is the strongest, richest, smartest, well educated,
> most productive, innovative, ethical and moral country in the history
> of the world.......... AREN'T WE?????????
>
> That's what we keep getting told............
Dec 04 11:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
How to Make Short Puts Worth Your While - Hypothetically

On Nov 25 08:16 AM TomArmistead wrote:

> For several years I sold puts at various market bottoms and times
> of high volatility, with acceptable results.
>
> Over the past year selling puts has cost me quite a bit of money.
> Stocks can and do go down well past most investors concept of what
> the floor price would be.
>
> Still, now is not a bad time to sell puts.

***
Yes, me too. I'd be selling more puts now .... if I had any money left!

Nov 25 12:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Geithner, a Man Who Doesn't Lose His Cool

On Nov 22 12:05 PM carey_jim wrote:

> The future of America will depend on the ability of our leaders and
> not their personalities.
>
> Abraham Lincoln is usually considered a great president but even
> Lincoln had to go through a long list of generals with superb records
> and personalities before he finally stumbled over Ulysses S. Grant.
>
>
> Grant was considered by many (incorrectly) to be a drunk, a failure
> and an anti Semite among other things.
>
> Abraham Lincoln himself was described by Harpers magazine as a "despot,
> liar, thief, braggart, buffoon, usurper, monster, ignoramus."
>
> Let's look at what Geithner does and did, not how he does it or did
> it.

I agree in sentiment, but Lincoln is a poor comparison. He was most of what Harpers said of him. Grant was a callus butcher.

I fail to see how being personable and 'not standing on ceremony', cool and unflapable make a good Sec. of Treasury or even an economic advisor. I'd much prefer an unpersonalbe curmudgeon who knows what's best for the country. Volker comes to mind...

Nov 23 20:45 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Agree completely with 1 - 5, but 6 was actually a good idea. Buying up junk is not the way to go... government getting into the hedge fund business ... without a profit motive just doesn't make sense. I heard he couldn't find managers who would do the job with the government looking over their shoulders, dictating.
Problem is the banks are sitting on whatever cash they can get, buying T bills yielding .25 %. Buying their junk doesn't help.
Nov 13 10:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
What Will Happen to Closed End Funds?

I'm not worried about the leverage you want to avoid. Obviously, it gives you more bang for the buck. If the fund can't make money off the spread, it can get rid of the leverage.
I bot a bunch of CEF's after the Sep decline... wish I had waited. Now you can get discounts of 30%, as much as you can stand.
Oct 09 10:41 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Why the Financial Markets Haven't Responded

I think you nailed it, Freddy Lou. These leftists are always looking for a strong leader [dictator] to tell them what to do. I dare say Bush has a better understanding of economics than either candidate. Fortunately, Mr. B does understand economics, and he is the man with the power.
Oct 09 10:14 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
M/I Homes: Common Share Price Perplexing

I saw these problems some time ago, but held off selling my shares because the chart looked strong. But now that the cash position is so close to the line, I recently sold the shares. Makes you wonder who is doing the buying.
Oct 03 12:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Mark to Market Myths

Very good, Shiv. It is mark to market that has turned isolated failures into the domino effect. Mark to market assumes rational pricing on the merits of the paper. We all know that markets get irrational now and then.
Oct 02 11:12 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
The Macro View - Sample Seeking Alpha - The Macro View Market Outlook An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Oil Price Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon Economy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
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Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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