Mathman Prophecy

Comment Stream

Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
  • Bond Wars Update: International and Junk
    Long UUP??? This reminds me of Goldman Sach's prediction that Oil is going to $250 a barrel when it was at $140 (though, actualy, in a not too distantant/inflationar... future this will come to fruition). The dollar's rise is illusory based on market conditions - redemptions, less credit, less spending (demand for dollars has increased). And yet, our government has been borrowing and printing trillions of dollars to counteract this deflationary environment. Once this government monetary policy works its way through the system, your dollar will be worth a quarter at best. Good Luck!
    Dec 26 09:35 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Chesapeake Energy Unable to Rally Even After Positive News
    Look at a 5 year chart of ticker GOLD compared to ticker CHK. As of July 2008, CHK was up over 250%, and GOLD was up 250% over those 5 years as well. Now, GOLD is still holding at close to 250% return, but CHK is down about -15% from 5 years ago. So either GOLD is about to plummet (I doubt that due to the absurd increase in money supply) or CHK will soon start closing the gap, after all commodities have value too, even though they are tied more closely to industrial demands which are currently down, and they also hedge well against inflation. Looking forward, CHK may have some downside in the short term, but anyone shorting this stock should consider investing with Madoff.
    Dec 24 09:28 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
    While Jason was more or less correct on calling $30 oil, his reasoning was still off base. As cited in my above posting, only 40% of oil is converted into gasoline. The rest is used for Jetfuel, Instustrial energy needs, and Petro-Chemicals - plastics, tar, rubber, pharmaceuticals, make-up. A slow down in economy/industry is leading reason behind oil price collapse -- Not less driving paired with increase in fuel efficienct cars.
    Dec 04 13:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Global Recession Is an Economic Reality
    Keynesian economics are socialist ie, they are the cause of our problems, not the solution. Milton Friedman has predicted, accurately, stagflation as a result of Keynesian economics. Too bad no one is the wiser. Keynesianism is stil being practiced (see: US Government) and preached (US schools).
    Nov 04 14:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • MetLife: No Longer Bankruptcy Candidate Material
    I'd put Prudential on a very safe list, these guys have a very low risk profile. You didn't mention Genworth (GNW), but I'd keep on eye on them. But I suppose the market value on Genworth has already reflected this outlook.
    Oct 08 09:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
    If you're looking for a job, I think the best place to work nowadays is for head hunters. This is bad, but at least Lehman didn't get bailed out by the Fed...
    Sep 15 09:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
    But seriously, $30?! The cheaper it gets, the more it will be used regardless of alternative fuels.

    You keep mentioning hybrids and new fuels, but Gasoline consumption accounts for about 40% of a barrel of oil. The rest is used for Jetfuel, Instustrial energy needs, and Petro-Chemicals - plastics, tar, rubber, pharmaceuticals, make-up.

    The only way oil will go to $30 is if they create a very cheap way to manufacture hydro-carbons. Until then, the world will need Oil and the demand will most certainly be strong enough to keep prices of Oil at twice above your estimate.
    Aug 18 13:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
    The underlining ends</b> here.
    Aug 18 13:13 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Priceline and Visa: Two Stocks To Buy Now
    Priceline has absurdly high growth rates (which is why it fell like crazy even when it posted 'good' number), has zero competitive advantage from similar offerings like Expedia, Orbitz, and Travelocity, has a market that have small barrier to entry, will suffer from decreased travel by consumers, will suffer from deals being directly offered by airlines. All it will take is for Google to make a service for these deals and you can kiss Priceline goodbye. Sorry, William Shatner can only drive up the stock to a point, this stock has absolutely no credibility as a good investment, unless gambling is your forte.

    Aug 07 14:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Starbucks on Sale (Part I)
    I had done a case study on Starbucks 6 years ago, though since then I have not revisited the company, nor have I really cared. However, one interesting finding was that each store opening infringes on other stores within the vicinity. This did result in net sales to go up, so the general effect on their bottom line was positive. The investment on each store was paid back after 3 years of operation. Nonetheless, I recall their high growth expansion plan was to achieve for 1 store per 50,000 people. That was 6 years ago. From the looks of it, they were opening stores in line with that goal, but ignored the concept of saturation. Their business model should be more inline with Coca-Cola; as they got big growth should be slow and steady. Instead, it looks to me as though they kept pursuing their high growth model.

    Instead of opening more stores, they should just have more than 1 bar inside each store. Yet management opted to change their cup logos from green to brown, give away promotions, and lock down all of the stores for 3 hours of training?! I can't help but laugh.

    Cheap? Perhaps... but I wouldn't delude myself into expectations that it will rebound to previous valuations any time soon.
    Aug 01 15:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?
    Do shareholders or customers have any legal recourse against the FCC? Seriously. Do they? None of their actions have had the consumer in mind. As a Sirius subscriber, I couldn't wait for the merger to go through and the manner and reasoning with which the FCC dragged its feat is sickening.
    Jul 24 08:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Has the FCC Gone Communist?
    Brazen23,

    At the point government controls private enterprises, it's communism. Listing degrees of government control is simply splitting hairs.

    While I have no problems with 'monopolies', because I think the market will mediate them eventually -- like Microsoft, for instance, which had vast control for many software applications like Internet Explorer, and Windows, has begun to lose significant market share to other offerings with no goverment assistance to those alternatives.

    Nevertheless, I have cannot understand how Siri/XM can be called a monopoly. First of all, there was a time when SIRI did not exist, and XM was the SOLE PROVIDER of Satellite Radio! Was there any talk of a monopoly back then?

    I'm a Sirius subscriber, and I do not own the stock. The reason I got Sirius was because I hated listening to the public radio stations that played the same songs, which were constantly interrupted by commercials. I chose to Pay for satellite radio to replace terrestrial radio. REPLACE is the key word.

    Before that, there were no options. Terrestrial Radio was the monopoly!!!

    Under the guise of consumer interest, the NAB is trying to protect its interests in the name of capitalism , and the illusory claims of a monopoly. But the stark truth is that the NAB is simply reacting to its loss of monopolistic control over the radio waves and is using the FCC in its fight to sustain its own monopoly!
    Jul 21 00:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is
    jaybird,

    Read my post again. Diesel and jet fuel were seperated from gasoline, and paired up with petro-chemicals. Gasoline, therefore, accounts for ~45% of a barrel of oil, and everything else accounts for 55%. I am correct, you're just not reading what I wrote.
    Jul 17 13:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is
    Actually, short term demand for oil has been proven to be IN-elastic. IF gas prices go to $5 or $6, I'll still have to drive to work in my gas guzzling truck. However, in the long run, people will end up car pooling, driving less, buying fuel efficient vehicles which would then help curb demand -- if not just curb the growth of the demand. Besdies, America's Oil consumption is about the same as it was in 2004. Also, even if supply will increase at a later date, it can have dramatic effects on prices today.

    However, a more importnant point many people refuse to acknowledge is what a Oil is used for. Most of a barrel of oil is used to produce diesl fuel for things like trucks, ships, trains as well as various oil fuels for industrials, jet fuel, asphalt, tar, home heating oil, propane, wax, and other petro chemicals like beauty products, plastics, synthetic fabrics, and pharmaceutical drugs. Thus, less than 45% of a barrel of oil is actually converted into Gasoline.

    Since most of the consumption of oil is Not as a result of driving cars, an economic down turn results in industrials to produce less products, thus curbing their use/demand of oil. This is also why price of Oil has been cyclical - rising during good times, and falling during recessions.

    Here's an interesting fact to consider: 9 of 10 previous postwar recessions began shortly after a big spike in the price of oil. Yet, those recessions always slashed oil prices dramatically. People who have been predicting both a nasty US recession and $250 oil prices are contradicting themselves.

    (To give credit where credit is due, the information I cite is from an article written by Alan Reynolds of the CATO institute. )
    Jul 17 09:33 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Are Oil Prices So High? Gold Solves the Riddle
    Good article. Instead of blaming oil companies for price hikes, the public should hold the government responsible for a weaker dollar. Unfortunately, the concept of inflation doesn't seem to register with the general public -- nor with the Fed.
    Jul 15 09:38 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

Mathman Prophecy's Comments Stream Stats

  • 22 Comments, 2 , 0
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 2