freefall51

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  • U.S. Bleeding Jobs; Wall Street Doesn't Seem to Mind
    Wall Street will mind. If something does not sound right dont believe it (cit Skilling/former Enron employee).
    Dec 09 08:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • $25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100
    Johnyups wrote:

    >I think are economy has turned to an "unpresidented&qu... situation.

    You may have meant "unprecedented'. But if you alluded to the negligibly thin resume of our new president elect, that we trust this crisis to resolve, I will book it as funny.

    As they say, hope is not part of the equation.
    Dec 06 10:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • $25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100
    The oil price is just an indicator of how bad things are.

    All this bailout money would have been better spent on energy independence other than letting banks fatten up their balance sheet or hand out funds to buy up competitors. Remind me again, what was the purpose of TARP?

    When the tide turns and oil gets expensive again, we will find out that we squandered the funds needed for what really had to be done.

    Dec 06 10:24 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Three Reasons Why the Dollar's Not Yet Done
    The strengthening of the $ may have started half a year ago, when the market was still up. I understand redemptions and margin calls in certain funds were the reason to sell assets that were bought on borrowed money and raise cash, and settle the deals with the investors to be payed in $. Now that the market has fallen to a level not seen in years, what exactly is the motivation to continue the deleveraging process? Selling typically subsides when the market bottoms out and I guess we are closer to the bottom than not.

    There are also possible deadlines like the end of the business year (say Oct 31) or the calendar year that have an impact on deleveraging.

    What drives deleveraging now that the conditions have changed?

    I suspect the relative strength of the $ is on borrowed time.
    Nov 27 12:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Can Obama Make Sense of All This Debt?
    Jim Rogers got it right. This bailout nonsense to the benefit of banks and domestic car industries just takes away money from competent people (these are those that live and work within their means and to pay taxes like me) and gives it to incompetent people. Outcome is that those can continue to fatten up their ugly balance sheets, hide their mistakes under the rug or compete with their gov afforded handouts against those that are not eligible or not needy. This is absolutely horrible and utterly outrageous. It is costly because of higher taxes looming. The alternative printing money is unfair to those that are reasonable and save their money, because the gov proposed out of control spending will devalue those assets for sure. The right medicine would be to let those failed institutions get bankrupt. Let the competent people take up the lumps. This is two years of tough hardship, and then we are through. The alternative is endless misery a la Japan.

    Dont forget to flush the present and the next administration into the toilet. Problem is there is not a politician anymore in charge with a hint of a backbone to sell what is right to the fellow Americans. There is nothing in the resume of the the new boss elect that lets me expect that he has any better idea to deal with the crisis than the old boss.






    Nov 27 11:52 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Contrarian Investing
    I cant help. I have to say it. The last thing that people need in this mad market is more Tupperware.
    Nov 12 20:29 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Beginning a Mini Bull Run; Be Prepared for Another Dip
    There seems to be a pattern. But extrapolating a pattern into the future is deceptive. The past development was fueled by increasing population, technological advances and cheap energy most of the time. Limited availability of sufficient energy to fuel substantial growth- cheap or not - will just limit the growth. Peak oil does not go away and I am pessimistic about the available scale of alternative energies. We may plateau forever.
    Nov 02 08:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold ETF Reaches One Dollar Per Tonne
    I would suspect GLD is sitting on a lot of gold inventory and even gold receivables that deflate rapidly. They may speculate that the price will come back anytime soon and hold, while selling now may potentially lead to losses.

    It is probably harder to actually move the gold than the price, since the gold trust cooperates with certain selected but unnamed partners to reddeem shares in baskets of 100 000 shares. How that process of redeeming works and what triggers it is not clear. At least it was at least not disclosed in GLD's last 10Q report.

    GLD seem to have a large liability of redeemable shares on their balance sheet, which also seems to be under balanced by the gold assets valued at their historical prices. On that basis the equity of this trust is negative with a strong tendency to deteriorate. There may be still some unrealized gains left, which are not on the books. To capture those GLD would have to hurry and sell. I wonder what will happen if gold prices further drop and the shareholders of GLD - remember that is a trust and not all gold - are heading for the exits. And there is limited access to the trust to redeem shares. But thats just me.
    Oct 23 08:47 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries
    Good one.
    Oct 22 07:57 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?
    That would explain why Jim Rogers is shorting 30 year US Gov. bonds.
    He may see the influx of $$$ into treasuries unwind and bet those $$$ are going into stocks starting Nov. 1? The old fox is always a step ahead.

    Good insight, thanks.
    Oct 19 09:16 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
    Platinum, Silver and Palladium prices have been cut in half since spring. What is the rational to afford gold a different treatment?

    Target $ 500/ oz.
    Oct 17 22:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold Has Significantly Outperformed: Can This Continue Indefinitely?
    I guess alajac expressed it elsewhere. It is not the trillions that are printed around the world. Sure that sounds scary. The core purpose of this stunt is to take (bad) subprime morgage debt off the balance sheet of banks and make the institutions solvent again or to buy equity in banks in order to spread confidence. This influx of liquidity should not to be conceived as a a gift or a freebie to anybody. The assets can be sold back over time, some may even turn into a profit. With some conservatism this may end up as a +/- zero sum game. Who would know that exactly now? It is a moot case to make a guess at this time. Better focus what is next on the way and that is economical contraction, ie deflation, ie falling gold prices.
    Oct 16 18:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold's Relationship with Real Estate
    @ Socialism,

    While I sympathize with your name, I cannot resist to note that GLD is 5 % down today. So much for store of value. Reminds me eerily to my former oil stocks. That makes excellent BEARS!
    Oct 16 17:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold's Relationship with Real Estate
    A Katz raises a very important point that I can relate to. Its is called denial.

    Every bubble is based on a good story, scarcity of gound fuels the housing bubble, peak oil fuels the oil bubble, printing $ fuels the gold bubble. People believe it must be that way until it isn't.

    I believe now that gold must come down if for no other reason than that it is still up like the last man standing. I am not a chartist but I know that a good upward price curve comes out of a consolidated base. For gold that was 6 years ago. Now we are in the 4th inning and the price curve is falling apart. There must be a fundamental reason for that. We will know in hindsight.

    I want to side with CHL. I believe he was a recent oil bear. I was in denial and got my butt kicked. This time I am listening. Short GLD.
    This is a mild Ponzi scheme anyway.



    Oct 16 00:16 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out
    This discussion reminds me to the peak oil discussion we had in spring. Everybody was jumping on the train with the longterm perspective that oil as a irreversibly consumable commodity goes up like crazy. Did not happen so fast. There were other issues in the foreground that caused oil to drop like a stone.

    I suspect something similar happens at this time with gold. Gold held about its value, but the GLD price curve looks exceedingly ugly and I would not bet it breaks to the upside. That does not take anything away from the longterm perspective of gold.

    So what is it? A surge of uncovered future contracts hitting the market and depressing prices?

    Yes a lot more money is being printed supporting a weaker $ , but the spending party is mostly over for the time being. Creditcards and mortgages are maxed out, house prices have not bottomed yet, consumer confidence in abysmal, lending standards and cost go up drastically. This is not about liquidity but solvency which goes to the hearth of credit worthiness of the consumer. That is deteriorating and limits spending especially for discretionaryand costly items like gold..

    I dont see why a economical contraction does not affect all asset classes. Last time we came out of a recession in 2002 gold had bottomed. I would not declare the goldprice at a bottom here.



    Oct 15 19:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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