freefall51

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  • Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'
    The demography of the world runs against theme of the blog. Somebody elsewhere suggested that if China and India had the same per person consumption of oil like the Americans, the known oil reserves would last less than a year. Now that is scary.

    I am not impressed by short term corrections.
    Jul 27 11:13 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The T. Boone Pickens Approach
    The Old Wizards Comment is a great reminder that only one thing should count in this discussion of global warming, namely facts and not opinions. There is no place for religion or ideology in particular if it leads to the suppression of observations that run squarely against the consensus of some self-proclaimed experts that all have an agenda.

    There are obviously lots of ways to look and interprete observations. One of the problems in this discussion is that the change of the KPI ‘world temperature’ is very small compared to the daily fluctuations and its average changes only slowly if at all. This is stuff for endless investigation projects on taxpayer money.

    Add ideology and you are in the middle of junk science.

    It does not help the case if long terms statistics from the last 150 years of increasing temperatures are presented from stations that have been encroached by urbanization over time and a good deal of the measured temperature increase is due to reflection of heat radiation form surrounding solid surfaces.

    It does not help the case if the fundamentals of heat adsorption by the ‘greenhouse gas’ CO2 are neglected. CO2 has only two discrete absorption lines in an infrared spectrum where the wave lengths range over three orders of magnitude. Meaning CO2 cannot have a meaningful effect on retaining the overall IR heat radiation from earth.

    It is not enlightening to drill ice cores and correlate ancient CO2 with warm periods. We all know there were warm periods that spurred growth of plants and animals. A high activity of plant an animal life may as well be correlated with high CO2 content in the atmosphere. But was CO2 the cause of the warm period or just a byproduct?

    If you believe in this or not, Al Gore and his ilk is becoming increasingly meaningless in the discussion on energy conservation. That issue has moved up the rank to a national security issue.
    Jul 27 10:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The T. Boone Pickens Approach
    It has been stated earlier that a European person uses only half the energy that a US person consumes. Having lived in Germany most of my live I can tell that the standard of living because of that does not necessary feel inferior to what the Americans are used to.

    So, the Germans are more happy because they spend less energy? Hell no!

    Using less energy does not save money because it must be spent elsewhere. But at least it minimizes financing some of the not so well-meaning oil or gas exporting countries. (Think about this for a second. In what other sector of the economy do you find a supplier of anything that can afford to despise his own client?)

    The charm of saving energy is that it can be done with means generally available to the public. Experience however shows, that the population needs to be forced by regulation to buy into it, because energy conservation is expensive to begin with. But energy conservation measures also provide jobs, inspire invention and technological advance and they have a lasting effect too.

    One of the striking differences that I faced on my transition into the US ten years ago was the construction standards of the homes in this country. Just a few thoughts from what I remember from my former life.

    Unlike in the US it is hard to find a house in Germany that has single window or door panes. Normal standard are tight closing windows and doors with two or three panes.

    By far most of the houses are built in brick and mortar. The materials used have to comply with a certain standard to minimize heat losses. Bricks used in new built houses are 2.5 ft thick. There is another half foot of insulation on the outside of the walls plus a layer of a mineral cover. The inside of the roof is also insulated (plus a vapor barrier to prevent condensation of humidity under the shindles). A basement and insulation under the floor and basement walls helps to restrict heat losses to the ground.

    Ventilated air may be heat exchanged so that warm air leaving the house warms up incoming cold fresh air.

    Houses now let for rent need to have a thermographic certificate, that proves there are no heat leaks. Else, the renter is entitled to cut its rent.

    Solar technology with collectors on the roof is often being used to make warm water.

    Heat pumps (the reverse of air conditioning) are sometimes used to heat houses. Heating homes is in Germany more common than cooling. Cooling is more expensive than heating and an excellent heat insulation in those houses is all the more important.

    The usage of heating oil is increasingly being replaced with NG, which burns cleaner anyway. NG frees up the place for an oil tank in the home but requires connection to a local gas line or a LNG tank in the garden. The heating furnaces must have minimum efficiencies dependent on their capacity. The efficiencies measured by stack temperatures, CO2 and CO emissions are mandatorily inspected every year and the furnaces have to be fixed if they don’t comply with the regulations.

    Stacks have to be insulated or made of stainless steel, since the exhaust temperatures are generally low and condensation of humidity (corrosive due to SO2 traces in gas) must be prevented.

    I owned an alternative place for wood fire, that was actually designed to leave the heat in the room other than pulling the heat out of the room like any open fire place, that can be found in US houses for show only. That worked wonderfully, but made a lot of work since logs had to be cut and split and the ash removed.

    Because of those standards and the way houses are traditionally built, the substance of the buildings is about 2 -3 times as expensive as a rafter house of the same size in the US.

    The Americans want to be like the Europeans? Welcome to the new world.

    Jul 27 01:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The T. Boone Pickens Approach
    I am sure messiah O. will be able to left handedly override the first and second law of thermodynamics and make energy out of little more than nothing. We only have to wait until after election and everthing will be fine. So be patient!
    Jul 25 22:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?
    Compelling. Good one.
    Jul 25 08:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time
    I applaud Mr. Pickens for his initiative. The problem with wind power however is, that it is inherently unreliable. In order to cover a baseload demand there must be held in parallel conventional power generation in hot stand by such as cole of NG fired or nuclear to cover that demand. Windpower always comes second after conventional unless we find a way to store energy and balance out energy generation peaks and troughs from wind. If you have sink your money in conventional technology first you only can calculate the profitablity of windpower against the saings in variable cost to operate conventional power generation. Given the example of Germany having promoted wind mills for two decades wind power must then be heavily subsidized to be viable. Then I would say this is no big deal. Better look for nuclear technology. There is no better use for uranium that burning it up.
    Jul 24 09:13 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gore's Renewable Energy Challenge, And How It Would Shift Investing
    I guess one of the reasons that Algore came up recently with this hysterical proposal to replace all carbon based energy sources by renewable sources within ten years is that he cannot cry wolf for another ten years and nothing really happens.

    He looks better if he proposes to replace all the conventional working power assets in that period. Then he can claim, see, I salvaged you little guys. He has to hurry before the consensus community finds out that the king of carbon footprints is actually naked.

    The the 10,000 ft2 mansion, the private jet and and his motorcade that are running on CO2 credits have already been mentioned.
    This guy has such low moral standard that even if he was right in all aspects I would it not take from him. Not a word. Get out of my life!

    Dont get me wrong I am all for energy conservation but not for the wrong reasons and not with those phony UN implications. This will only drain our pockets and line the pocket of some selected few.
    Jul 23 13:16 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Are the Prospects for Stagflation?
    So what am I supposed to buy now?
    Jul 23 08:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
    Fitz,

    I give you credit that you blog something that gets that many controversial comments and that you then even feel compelled to comment on them. That is fun.

    That said, the fact that you have to cite the judgement of GW Bush to make your case for global warming is actually a case against it.
    Jul 23 00:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gore's Renewable Energy Challenge, And How It Would Shift Investing
    CO2 is a valuable recylcable nutrient for plants. Plants are growing twice as fast in an atmosphere that contains 1000 ppm CO2. We are not even halfway there.
    Jul 22 22:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
    Fitzman,

    AlGore does not even get the basics right. The concept of global warming is based on the idea that greenhouse gas, the CO2 from your car, is bottling up the heat of the earth by capping the radiation. Heat radiation takes place in infrared or near-infrared, spanning a wavelenght spectrum from 1 - 350 x10-6 m. CO2 adsorbs photon radiation at two discrete wavelenghts 4.26 and 15.00 x 10-6 m and it gets warmer by getting excited. This is of course reversible. This also implies that most of the infrared radiation of the whole IR spectrum goes past the CO2 unfettered into space. The idea that CO2 can retain the heat of the earth is the equivalent of the attempt to stop a water flow with a sieve that has only two strands. This is pure nonsense.
    Jul 21 22:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
    DEKE,

    I got absolutely nothing against energy independence. I am all for it.

    I have my own experience with nukes though. I was living in Munich when Tschernobyl happened. Mr. Zimmermann, the Bavarian Minister of the Interior at that time and the epitome of an idiot, signaled immediately, no problem, this is 2000 km away. Guess what, the wind turned from West to East and brought rain and thunderstorms. The outfall spoiled pretty much everything growing in the open. For weeks and months you would listen horrified to the radio announcing the doses of Becquerel on your salad, in your milk, mushrooms or venison. You would ask yourself, do I get terminally ill if I eat this or that. Well, I am still there;

    I am not even against nukes, as long as the efforts to run that technology safely match the risks. It is a challenge but if we put the best brains together and treat the technology with the utmost respect it can be done. But if something goes wrong expect a lot of Zimmermanns coming out of their holes.
    Jul 20 14:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
    Jakester,

    Not sure if you are right with the idea that pressure sqeezes the CO2 out of ice. High pressure typically favors CO2 absorption in (liquid) water. But if you freeze carbonated water, you will find that most of the CO has gone.
    Make an experiment with a beer in your freezer. Taste it before and after and you will notice the difference.
    Jul 20 10:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
    Global warming may have an interesting scientific value but it is largely meaningless during our lifetimes. What is the idea? Preserving ice? I could not care less. With ongoing emissions all we get is a higher equilibrium of CO2 in the atmosphere and possibly some conditions that humans and animals will adjust to. It is ridiculous to assume that any species on earth can survive without adjusting to whatever comes along. There has been worse in the past such as global cooling. And by the way plants love CO2.

    But take away the energy and we find ourselves back in the stone age or worse. Pretty quickly. Some will adjust to that condition too. But before we get there there will be hell and high water. Too many lives are supported by usage of energy of scale.

    As far as I am concerned I will take a few foot of high water anytime over a war about energy resources. We better get energy independent in all aspects including getting our hands on all carbon sources available in this country. (Long offshore drillers).
    Jul 20 10:33 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing
    The excessive spending of the congress, the government having their fingers in our pockets through proposed higher taxes and non-productive but corrupt (though buying votes) new entitlements and stimulation packets supported by both aisles, Mr. Bernankes freebies to his ilk, the colossal national debt burden that will never be paid back and the incredibly weak $ will continue to drive the oil price up until we are all choking.

    How is that? Please note, none of the factors mentioned are directly related to oil but they are predictable like a Swiss watch. Investment in oil is a protection against self-inflicted inflation. Well, that is trivial. Not difficult to be a bull even on a choppy day like this.

    Jul 17 18:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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