huangjin

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  • Solving the Housing Crisis in Bankruptcy Court
    Welfare vote buying has always occured behind a veil of media indifference and popular ignorance, but the bailouts are widely scrutinized.

    Voter don't think of themselves as GM or AIG though. They lump all of these companies into the "other" or "fat cat" category. If the Democrats start picking and choosing individual winners and losers, the anger will move from nebulous to personal. The AIG bailout will fade in people's minds by 2010, but their neighbor will serve as a daily reminder.
    Dec 31 17:08 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    "a return to the gold standard would be disastrous. It would be a prelude to a global downturn of unprecedented proportions and doom future generations to heightened economic volatility."

    Please ignore the global downturn of unprecedented proportions dooming future generations to heightened economic volatility behind the curtain.
    Dec 30 16:53 pm |Rating: +5 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    If deflation is so terrible, how does the electronics industry survive? Deflation isn't better than inflation because of a value judgement. Deflation is better because it is the natural state of affairs.
    Dec 30 16:51 pm |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Returning to a Gold Standard Is a Bad Idea
    Both systems have major flaws, and history has cycled from fiat to gold and back for this reason. The attraction of the gold standard (and there are several systems out there, more diverse than the fiat regimes that range from Zimbabwe's printaholic regime to Dubai's peg) is the constraint it puts on government borrowing. Some favor fully privatizing money, allowing both fiat and gold. In such a system, however, fiat money is still restrained by gold.

    But the U.S. doesn't have a currency problem today as much as it has a political problem. Without the need for Treasury to borrow, the Fed would not need to print massive sums of paper. The end of the gold standard came at the inauguration of the Great Society and the end of the Vietnam War. The current crisis arrives following the Medicare prescirption drug bill, retiring boomers, and a War on Terror.

    The U.S. could have a workable fiat system, if it was run by a tight money Fed that refused to purchase U.S. Treasuries, essentially making a political decision to withstrain U.S. political ambitions. Since no person can withstand the public in a democracy (or the King in a monarchy) every society eventually turns to the one thing that can: gold.
    Dec 30 12:26 pm |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Enlightening the Gold Bugs
    Time. Unless you give me a time frame, I cannot assess your argument. I think gold and the dollar could rally for several months and even years, but once the economy recovers, inflation will return and gold will pull away.
    Dec 24 11:03 am |Rating: +2 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Inflation Is in Our Future...Not Deflation
    Government will crush entrepreneurship with regulation and taxes, and America is graying, just as Japan did. Their population stopped growing in the 1990s, the U.S. is peaking now without immigration, and the economic downturn will solidify (relative to 10 years ago) anti-immigrant sentiments.

    The U.S. will always be relatively more spendthrift than Japan, but the comparison between nations is not helpful here. America 2010 will not spend like America 2000. Deflation is here, and it will last until the economy recovers. (Although Obama's green policies could help send energy prices higher, leading the uncritical observer to assume stagflation).
    Dec 24 10:55 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Does Cramer Have a Beef with Leveraged ETFs?
    Plot a one year chart of FXI and FXP. There's a legitimate complaint if the products are advertised or marketed in a way that implies they act as a long-term hedge. Only traders and gamblers should use these products.
    Dec 24 09:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Great American Ponzi Scheme (Part I)
    I thought this would be about the Federal Reserve, the New Deal or Great Society. They are Ponzi schemes enforced at the point of a gun.
    Dec 24 09:41 am |Rating: +7 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Would Hedge Fund Registration Have Helped Madoff Investors?
    Foreign and domestic investors felt confident when Fannie & Freddie purchased subprime debt.

    This is why we always see the same level of scandal, whether there is regulation or not. There are always criminals, but the government's regulation efforts cause the public to toss caveat emptor out the window. And of course, the cost of regulation is less entrepreneurship and depressed economic activity.

    Outside of a few areas such a law and order, the government is merely a witch doctor waving chickens over the economy, and for this service we pay 20% or more of GDP in direct and indirect costs.

    Dec 24 09:37 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will U.S. Growth Beat China's in 2009?
    The producer to the world, U.S.A., suffered the most in the first Depression. Producer to the world, China, may suffer more this time, if history repeats. Whether your theory is right or wrong, you are right to ask the question.

    In my opinion, it's the idle factories (malinvestments) that matter, not the money supply.
    Dec 17 11:09 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China ETF Battle: FXI vs. FXP
    FXI beats FXP as of 12/11...
    Dec 12 12:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Emerging Markets: The New Spenders of the 21st Century
    China is better off without a social safety net. They will have higher savings, and if they don't get sick, they can pass their wealth on to their children, perhaps by purchasing a home for them. And the private sector is already developing insurance anyway, if people are actually concerned about "oversaving"...

    Yeah, let's get Chinese to emulate the foolish Americans who spend everything they have and entrust their retirement and healthcare to a government that also spends everything it has. Hmmm, Chinese peasant with a fat bank account or broke American begging his broke government for healthcare.

    No, the way the BRICs will consume more is through increasing their income, not taking stupid advice from Keynesians.
    Dec 09 13:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Dollar vs. Treasuries Dichotomy
    People thought stocks were a bubble in 1996...
    Dec 05 17:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Can Google Really See a Decline in Revenues?
    Hmmm. When unemployment hits 10%, there will be a lot of people searching on Google. But will advertisers want to pay to reach them?
    Dec 03 14:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China Isn’t Losing Its Competitive Edge
    Perhaps China is in a similar position as OPEC. It can choose to cut the RMB (OPEC can cut production), but if demand continues to drop, prices will fall anyway. A weaker RMB (or lower oil production) will lead to even lower revenues, as lower RMB cannot raise exports (lower oil productin cannot raise prices). China would be taking money from its pocket to smooth the decline in the developed nations.
    Dec 02 10:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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