junkyarddog

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  • Forget Oil, Water Is China’s Biggest Shortage
    And this is "only" China. India is facing similar problems.
    Sep 04 13:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
    As far as the White House goes, we all better get used to McSame. I have to give it to them: "Hockey Mothers for Palin Power" is one of the biggest idiocies I've seen in a while, but Palin was the bomb last night. Her appeal was great, and that's all it takes sometimes to win an election.

    Give it to the Republicans: politically they're a lot smarter than the dems. Unless, the dems really wanted to lose this election on purpose, as I'm starting to believe.

    So, Phil, the oil bouce back to $110 won't last long. Thank goodness the downward pressure is still on.

    Your article "The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales" published here on May 22, 2008 is the best piece of literature published this year. Man, you're good, I just wish you wouldn't hope so much for politics to change significantly the status quo. Not with these candidates. Our options are simple:
    a "community organizer" versus a "war monger".

    Tough choice.
    Sep 04 13:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook
    Oil at $106:

    Phil, let me be the first one to congratulate you on your victorious assessment of the 2008 economy. Yes, the year is far from over, but I've been reading your articles since January and when oil shot up to $146 YOU WERE THE ONLY ONE STICKING TO YOUR GUNS, always pointing to price manipulation.

    You're the man. I salute your wisdom and foresight. Thanks for your sharing your articles free of charge to the average [poor] Americans like us!

    I live in New England and this Summer I had to pre-buy the heating oil for my house. Thousands of dollars. I decided to pay and extra 0.25 cents a gallon for a "downward price protection". The customer rep, relatives, and friends thought I threw money away: oil will go a $200, it'll never come down again. Well, I listened to your point of view and now I'm ahead of the game.

    Yes, I repeat, the year is far from over, but the impossible happened: oil went down. Even if temporarily, no one is talking NOW oil at $200. We'll see. Meanwhile, thank you again! You saved me a lot of money and grief!


    Sep 02 10:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Friday Outlook
    Phil, I know you are a hard-core democrat, but to think Obama will inspire and bring change is nothing but betting on an unknown horse.

    Plus, get used to it: McCain will win the election and the democrats better start writing an infamous book titled "How To Lose An Election It Was Ours To Take". You could write the foreword.

    Note: I don't support McSame. I just think he'll win because the democrats simply blew it.

    About oil: yes, we Americans consume less. But Asiam, notably China consumes more. Doesn't that make up the difference? So, in terms of global supply and demand we're still worse off than 2005. Aren't the oil producing contries the ones witholding supply?
    Aug 29 12:56 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
    This is 'fan mail'.

    Phil, another amazing commentary with fundamentals right on!

    I've been reading your articles almost every day this year, specially when the craziness on commodities (oil) spiked. Your comments have been a breath of fresh air, for you dared to be unique and challenged every one saying that "fundamentals&quo... weren't there. You were proved right so far, although you draw angry criticisms from some.

    I just CAN'T BELIEVE we're going to the same cycle again with oil pushing at $116 then $130 (according to you). This "joke" will costs us billions and everyone is already hurting financially (well, mostly everyone) with these high oil prices.

    Thanks for posting your comments everyday, free of charge. I'll be reading them to keep my sanity on.

    Aug 20 10:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
    Phil, it's Interesting your prediction that oil will go back up to $130. What is your reasoning behind this since you were the first one to advocate it was a bubble? Is there another bubble being formed on oil / commodities?
    Aug 13 11:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Where Are Precious Metals Heading?
    Gross Profits: Maybe just as good as your "useless" comment.

    The gold bugs see the commodity go over $1,500 in one year and anyone who dares a contrarian position is the subject of their wrath. Jim Sinclair (JSMineset.com) will even bet $1 million dollars with you, just in case you haven't heard their bullish predictions loud enough.

    I own gold stocks myself as a hedge, but I can understand the article's argument that 2/3 of gold commodity demand is down 55% and that "may" put downward pressure on the price (sorry gold freaks, just a different view. Wrong, perhaps, but just a view).

    Good article.
    Jul 25 15:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is the Eurozone Heading Off a Cliff?
    Very interesting observations. I wonder if the author (Claus) feels all of this spells the end of the Euro.

    Can Spain / Italy / France cope with a strong(er) Euro?
    Jul 25 12:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook
    I took a week of vacation and missed Da Phil's view on the economy. He doesn't have a crystal ball and he can't predict the future. So, he may make some mistakes on some calls, but I tell you... Phil's fundamentals are right on.

    I really laughed when oil dropped so much last week! Reason? No one seemed to have believed Phil: the world simply can't support (afford) oil at >140 bucks. Inflation will eventually take us there, but right now it's pure speculation. Those who criticize Phil do me a favor: read his past articles on oil, just for starters.

    Phil is human too (I think) and he's not perfect, so of course he ought to be wrong on a few things. One thing he's wrong on is to believe that this mess is all this administration's fault, although the Dems are the ones controlling Congress. Bush sucks, of course, but so do the Dems. Moreover, Dems == Republicans. The sooner people realize that, the sooner we'll move forward as a Nation with an alternative party, one who doesn't have any deals with the devil.

    PS: devil == oil companies, GS, JP Morgan, LEH, IMF, and others. Utopia, I know.


    Jul 22 15:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50
    "You won't see $100 oil ever again."

    You've been manipulated and this kind of acceptance and hopelessness is exactly what our leaders want. Increase the margin requirements at NYMEX from 5% to 30% or more and you'll see oil back at $100 to $120 a barrel.
    Jul 11 09:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
    Phil, I always enjoy your articles. In my opinion you're one of the best market analysts in today's world, and I read a lot.

    I think you're partially right in your analysis above. What is missing? The democrats. As if they're not part of the same corruption scheme, as if they want the price of oil to come down, to withdraw our troops from Iraq, and as if they're immune to the oil cartel lobbying.

    I'd challenge anyone to come up with one SIGNIFICANT difference between republicans and democrats. One. And I will take back everything I said.
    Jul 09 11:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook
    Which one you prefer:

    a) have a job WITH inflation
    b) be unemployed with ZERO or low inflation

    The world is not as black and white as my 2 choices above, but let's simplify things for the sake of argument. I'd prefer "a", as in 'b" I won't buy oil...sure... but I won't be paying my mortgage either.

    One can pump up all he wants ECB, but what good is a strong EURO under a collapsing or recessionary economy? The "independence&quo... the author mentions above from central banks and goverment might be good on paper, but how effective is to have a monetary policy APART from a fiscal policy?

    Many analysts argue that the EURO will flop simply because of this reasons. Of course, you and I know analysts are never wrong... but in this case the contrarian point ought to be at least thought provoking. Time will tell.
    Jul 03 14:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
    who: It's not only about commodities or automobiles. I was thinking more in terms of services, which get cheaper for America to sell out there. The US is having record exports and I'm not sure if it's a good thing to stop this trend.

    Europe will hold off inflation (so they hope) but at what cost? Their already slow economy will be even slower. Then their unemployment will rise and they'll be risking an even steeper recession.

    It's a tough choice, but personally, choosing between a) having a job with inflation or b) be unemployed with no inflation, I prefer having a job ("a").

    I know economic purists, especially the gold bugs, think the job of the Fed ought to be only to protect the dollar, making it strong. Question: what good is a strong dollar in the middle of a depression?The Fed also needs to foster economic development and this balance is tough. I'll be the only American out there saying the absolutely outrageous, I even risk being lynched: given the circumstances I believe Barnanke is doing a good job. There, I said it. :-o

    Jul 03 13:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
    Phil, I read your articles daily, with great interest. Reading what you have to say is the information I look forward most each day.

    Allow me to take a "contrarian" view: the weak dollar being good for the US economy. The weak Japanese yen allowed Honda, who only manufactured motorcycles until 1968, to eat alive (destroy!) Detroit in the 70's and beyond. Why? They sold their cheap piece of junk Japanse cars and collected the sales in dollars, strong at that time.

    A weak dollar boosts US exports and creates opportunities. Low interest rates keep things moving. The worst we can do now is slow even further our economy with higher interest rates AND increase unemployment. If people don't have jobs, yes, they won't buy oil, but... they won't pay for their mortgages either.

    Now, ECB raised rates. What do you believe is going to happen? Stronger Euro, weaker dollar! Whose products then become more competitive in the market? America's.

    A weak dollar raises the oil price - so they say -- but let's face it: fundamentals are not playing a role here. The dollar can go 1.30 to the Euro and the oil barrel price will stil increase. So, forget fundamentals there.

    Thanks again for you incredible articles every day. You definitely make your readers think!
    Jul 03 10:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Myth and Meaning in the Great Oil Game
    So much academia, so little information. I guess this "Russian" adage still holds true: those who can do, those who can't teach.

    The comments above are spot on; they're better than the article!
    Jul 03 10:09 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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