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Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets
The author got it backwards.
"The scheme began to unravel when, in 2008, clients wanted to withdraw $7 billion from the firm and Madoff was struggling to raise $7 billion to cover redemptions. On December 10, 2008, he suggested to his sons that the firm pay out several million dollars in bonuses two months ahead of schedule. Then at his apartment, he admitted to his sons that his firm was a fraud."
The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets
Are we praying for a visible hand here? If you conclude that the market forces are ineffective, this is more profound than uncertainty. Then we need to identify the root cause for the inefficiency of the markets.
Investment Strategies in These Times of Transition
In the penultimate paragraph, you mentioned two foundations for the next expansion: financial stabilization and alternative energy. I wonder about the possibility and timeframe of their coming about. Given the currently popular demand side policies, the are not foreseeable. Are we talking about 5 years, 10, or 20? What does it take for the US government to make a policy shift?
Higher Food Prices Bane of Farmers, Boon to Agriculture ETFs
By double top, I assume you mean 43 for DBA. Chartists are like weathermen. One sees double top, another sees support at 34, still another sees 35. Today it broke the 200-day moving average, which is supposedly bearish.
On the fundamental side, the cost of production, energy, fertilizer and seeds, have gone up compared to last year. The demand only increases. Unless you predict a bumper crop, the bull won't die.
Asset Class Correlations
I think 10-Yr treasuries in the tables are measured in price, not yield. The dollar drops with short terms rates, while gold rises (-0.64), so do bond prices.
Why Doesn't the CPI Seem More Like Real Life?
Federal Reserve Operations: A Six-Month Review
I have a gap in understanding M2 growth related to inflation, however. The article quotes M2 growth data:
5.5%, 07Q4
6.8%, February 2008
7.1%, March
6.5%, April 2008
6.4%, MAy 2008
6.0%, June 2008
Then in the last paragraph, it concludes that this "points to a rate of inflation of around 4%". Is this prediction from some quantitative model or rule? What is the time lag from M2 growth to PPI/CPI?
Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune?
There are statistical methods for calculating covariances and time lags. It is hard to tell a complex story with English verbage and tables.
Protecting Your Wealth and Profit During the 2008 Crash
Fundamentally, I don't know what drives gold prices. In the long term, gold has seriously underperformed DJ.
Gold's Finest Hour: How to Buy Now
"gold prices will rally even higher as investors dump what's perceived to be the ultimate king of fiat currencies (euro)." This is odd since it means that strong dollar boosts gold. I also heard that credit crises, which is deflationary, boosts gold. It's also quite convincing that prosperity boosts gold. Any factor, in either the positive or the negative direction, boosts gold. If I believe what I read about gold, any change boosts gold, so does stability. Are the gold bulls nuts?
Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials
Is Gold a Good Investment During the Credit Crunch?
But the article jumps to another myth without proof: "there is only one main reason why people should hold gold and that is inflation. "
Isn't it a simple data gathering and presentation to superimpose inflation data, CPI/PPI or M2 over gold prices?
Has anyone seen or constructed such a chart to establish the gold/inflation relationship? Without the data, we are running the risk of buying another myth.
Dollar Hurt by Geopolitical Concerns and High Oil
Let's consider OIL/USD, OIL/AUD and AUD/USD. SImple math gives
(OIL/USD)/(AUD/USD) = OIL/AUD
This relationship ensures that (OIL/USD) and (AUD/USD) moves in the same direction to maintain reasonable OIL/AUD. If we have to find a driver, I'd say that the larger drives the smaller, in terms of trading volume or.
Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal
Comparing the stock charts with MZM history, I notice that dropping growth of money precedes reversals. In years 2002 and 2003, the money growth rate dropped from 20% to 5%, foretelling a reversal in March 2003. Financials surged 30% in the following 12 months.
Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue
I see no consistency.