andyn

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  • Satyam's Moment of Truth Is at Hand
    India's Enron... so what lessons can one take from that.
    1. It cant be just the chairman doing this... there are many persons with their hands in this mess / fraud.
    2. Enron caused the demise of their auditors Arther Anderson, similarly this may cause a big blow to PWC, Satyam's auditor (were they sleeping all these years?)
    3. How about the banks? Lots of banks had to pay huge fines due to their complicity with Enron. There are many banks who supposedly had Satyam's "5500 crore" rupees...wonder who would be hit the most?
    4. Board of directors.... the less said of them, the better.
    All in all, this might bring about a lot of skeletons from the closet. The true losers are the shareholders as well as employees.

    Doesn't mean that all companies are bad though... there might opportunities to pick up INFY, WIT when they are sold off with this.
    Jan 07 09:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • India Faces a Long Bear Market - Barron's
    India and the BRIC countries were indeed in a stock market bubble.
    And that bubble has been deflated.

    But looking ahead, recognize India is different from other emerging markets in that its a intensely domestic focused economy and still a largely protected one.
    Which means that what the shrewd investor needs to see is what is going on internally in India and whether the growth of 5-7% can be sustained.

    That seems to be likely since inflation is coming down which means the govt can finally cut interest rates and spur growth. This is doubly beneficial for the ruling Congress party as the elections loom since inflation under 5% bodes well for them in retaining their rule which is extremely bullish for stocks.

    India should maintain their 5-7% growth and that is key when compared to the rest of the world (apart from China) which will barely grow. Relatively speaking, investing in India through IBN, HDB, SLT or just a index fund like EPI / PIN would be good.
    Jan 04 09:57 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Pengrowth Energy, Gold Miners ETF: Value in Commodities
    PWE also seems to be good, as they have also locked in the high oil rates for 09 and 2010.
    Moreover,they have consolidated by buying other properties around their acerage.

    Their dividend has been safe so far... of course, if oil keeps dropping, all bets are off. But I think oil will settle around $55 this year.

    So PWE here at around $10 with a dividend yield of 20+% is a great investment.
    Jan 02 08:42 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are Home Prices Still Too High?
    Agree with MauiJeff's comments.
    Baby boomers actually will now start getting out of the houses that they have and trade down as that's the only real asset they have to keep them going in their golden years.
    That means LOTS of second-hand home supply in the market going forward.
    Stock prices have crashed to almost 2001 levels.
    I dont see why house prices are still at 2005 levels.
    So yes, there is a lot more to go... remember Japan's case of 70% decline.
    Maybe the US is not as bad, but I can definitely down 50% from peaks.
    So I agree, there is no need to rush into get a house on "bargain".
    Jan 02 08:38 am |Rating: +4 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • ICICI Bank: Bellwether Emerging Market Short
    I will gladly buy IBN here at $18.
    Inflation is plummeting and with that interest rate margins are increasing.
    IBN is still in a market that will grow atleast 5% if not more.
    also in India most loans need substantial down payments unlike the US.

    for a long term investor, its a great entry point to ride the Induan growth,
    Jan 02 08:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets
    India is actually better than China and Russia since its such a domestic oriented economy, unlike the others.

    Yes, sectors which depend on exports will suffer along with the rest due to the global slowdown.

    But I think companies such as the banks (HDB, IBN) and construction firms will benefit hugely due to the lowered inflation and resultant interest rates.

    Good time to buy into the Indian market now and ride the other side of the hill.
    Jan 01 08:48 am |Rating: +2 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • After TSX Drops 35% in 2008, Canada Hopes for a Better New Year
    Canada's fortunes are tied in with commodities.
    If oil starts going back up to even say $60 and stays relatively stable there, the tar sands projects will still be profitable (although less so).

    Other commodities have just fallen off a cliff and are way oversold due to the credit freeze. As that thaws, the TSX will rise alongwith it.

    Good time to just buy the market and sit back for the next 6-9 months.
    Jan 01 08:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Indian Banks Still Interesting
    Rates will / are coming down rapidly in India since inflation has reached 6% from double digits and is predicted to go down further.
    This is good for the Indian economy since its still mostly a domestic one (exports as % of GDP is low in sharp contrast to the others like China, Russia).

    Also, there is a lot of development going on in infrastructure which should bode well to bridge over the recessionary tendencies the world over.
    The stock market unfortunately was in the hands of foreign institutions and hence suffered along with the rest of the world. But the fundamentals of the Indian companies have not changed much.

    IBN, HDB are good vehicles to ride the India story from here.
    IBN in particular has been unduely punished with rumours and should return back to the mid-20's from here.
    Dec 30 10:12 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is it Time to Buy Dry Bulk Shippers?
    DRYS looks appetizing here in single digits, from its peak of $100+ say 6 mths back, but remember it has tripled from its lows of $3 or so.
    The issue is whether all of these firms will "survive" the slowdown, which looks to be well into 2011.
    So be very careful and only buy debt free companies which have good contracts locked in and not the day-rate companies.
    Rather than dry-bulk shippers, a better bet would be mining/infrastructure plays which should recover from their low commodities. Like BHP, FCX and SLT.
    Dec 29 09:16 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Uptick Rule: Mr. Cox, Is It Really That Devilish?
    Shouldn't this rule change have REDUCED volatility? Atleast that's why it was removed to make the markets more "free" and hence more true.

    I mean, if its easier for people to either buy or sell freely, the market should settle at the "proper true" value.

    I guess theory and practice differ as we see, but u cant blame the lack of uptick rules for the selloff.

    There were fundamental reasons for this bridge to collapse... huge leverage built on shaky house values. plain and simple.
    Nov 21 09:13 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is the Real Estate Plunge Really That Shocking?
    What is surprising is that home sellers are still thinking they are going to get their high watermark prices!!!
    Even though, foreclosures are occurring all around them.

    I think home prices need to go down almost to 1999 levels or about 60% from the peak (double of the current median price drop %).

    Sellers, better get out NOW while you get the higher values
    Buyers, rent till the home values come down 60%
    Nov 21 09:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless
    Agree with Wefwef above.
    It indicates a lack of opportunities / ideas that the company can use the money for.
    Buybacks give a false bottom to stocks and doesnt allow the markets to be do their actual thing.
    I think better would be to do a special one-time dividend and give the money directly to the shareholders. (I was recipient of a HUGE dividend from MSFT some years back).
    I am thinking of getting back into MSFT but am worried they may now do that stupid YHOO deal.
    Nov 19 08:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Penn West Energy: Q3 Earnings Review
    time to buy here and take in that yield.
    oil is not going down forever... should settle around $50 for a while.
    Nov 18 08:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Updated FDA Decision Date Calendar
    Good list...
    Is there a FDA website which lists the updates to the dates as and when it happens?
    Nov 13 21:06 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Taking Advantage of Google's Plummeting Lows
    Stupid to be short a put in this market.

    $250 might be a long way off but to think that GOOG is below $300 is already crazy. P/E contraction is happening at a scary pace and there are no signs that the economy is going to recover anytime soon.

    If you want to put in cash into this market, just buy a high-yielding one so that atleast you get something in return while you wait for the recovery in stocks.
    Nov 13 09:38 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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