einstein p fleet

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  • Monsanto Earnings - Quite Awesome
    I owned 2500 shares at 68. Dr. StrangeLove can kiss my seed loving behind. This one paid tuition for 2nd grade for the year. Oddly enough, this would have paid for my entire college education when the world was young and hippies still roamed the Earth.

    The world seems to be going to hell, but it doesn't mean that you can't indulge in a few capitalist pleasures, even if they come from genetically engineered seeds --- shaken not stirred.

    Where is the next quick buck? If you know, please post. Third grade is coming up quickly.

    Jan 08 00:45 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Cramer's Stop Trading! It's a Joy Global World (1/6/09)
    I bought JOYG at 38 a while back, thinking it was a good deal once they announced the buyback. Cramer was pushing at that point and had a compelling tale, as did the CEO. At 15 dollars a share, I bought 80% of my position. Cramer was pushing "accidental high yield" companies and JOYG actually fit the bill.

    I gave up on taking advice from the talking heads a long time ago, but it doesn't hurt to listen. The herd mentality on Wall Street is one of the few things that hasn't changed and probably never will.
    Jan 07 19:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solutions for CSX's Greenbrier Brand, $15M in Red
    Better idea ---CSX merges with Fredericks of Hollywood and becomes the first railroad company to integrate porn with moving vehicles and a 3G capable website --- other NYC cabs and long distance truckers. Time Warner recognizes the possibilities and buys CSX for 2500 dollars a share, in a bidding war w Google, Yahoo, and Hustler.

    I'm loading up at 32.
    Jan 05 22:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solutions for CSX's Greenbrier Brand, $15M in Red
    Better idea ---CSX merges with Fredericks of Hollywood and becomes the first railroad company to integrate porn with moving vehicles and a 3G capable website --- other NYC cabs and long distance truckers. Time Warner recognizes the possibilities and buys CSX for 2500 dollars a share, in a bidding war w Google, Yahoo, and Hustler.

    I'm loading up at 32.
    Jan 05 22:07 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Mervyn's: Death of California's Retail Chain
    I'm surprised that Mervyn's lasted as long as it did. It offered nothing special to the consumer and got buried by the competition.

    America is overstored and has been for some time. Time to thin the herd to let the strong survive. Expect more casualties in this space this year.
    Jan 05 09:32 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solutions for CSX's Greenbrier Brand, $15M in Red
    CSX should sell the spa to a luxury hotel chain -- for the right price --- and concentrate on their core business.
    Jan 05 09:27 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • $60 a Barrel Oil in 2009?
    A fifty-three percent (53%) move up or down isn't what it used to be, especially over the past six months --- especially in the commodity space and the dry bulk shippers. We've all seen those type of moves, both up and down, occur in a matter of weeks during 2008.

    The current price of oil is not sustainable --- recession or no recession. In fact, it's dangerous. The cuts from OPEC were ignored for the most part so a new course of action has begun. Russia, which grew rich during the commodity boom, is already threatening to cut off supplies to Europe. Hamas and Hezbollah are funded by Iran. Coincidentally, Hamas began to lob missiles into Israel soon after OPEC cut and was ignored. The conflict in Gaza could easily boil over and spread throughout the region. There are lots of oil tankers sitting in the Strait of Hormuz that could be targeted, not to mention the Saudi oil fields. Does this scenario sound far-fetched? Maybe. Still, countries like Iran and Russia need oil prices to return to 75-85 dollar a barrel range to be profitable and fund their "social" programs. Mexico, Venezuela, and a host of other countries are in the same position.

    Is a 53% rise possible? Of course it is. In fact, I believe that it's on the low side. Oil is going to hit that 75-85 dollar target this year and continue to go up in years to come.
    Jan 03 11:15 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • All Aboard for Railroad Opportunities
    I agree with Chris B.

    Renewable energy will not replace coal, especially with the state of the economy and the present technology. Actually, the emphasis on infrastructure and cheap energy sources both the US and China would tend to lead me to believe the opposite is the case.

    Not only are the rails a good investment, but so are the coal companies and the dry bulk shippers. More than likely, the credit crunch and the liquidation of positions by hedge funds is just as responsible for the steep decline in these stocks as is the recession that never was but actually started in December of 2007.


    On Dec 19 02:02 PM auto44 wrote:

    > Chris B,
    >
    > I doubt that renewable will takeover for coal. I doubt that housing
    > is overbuilt for anywhere near a decade. Trains use the same fuel
    > that trucks do only a whole lot less per ton mile. We will still
    > have to ship cars no matter who makes them. I respectfully disagree
    > with most of what you said,but I didn't give you a thumbs down because
    > you have really put a lot of thought into your opinion. Keep thinking
    > and I hope we can agree more in the future and learn together. Sincerely,
    > Bob
    Jan 02 16:38 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 2009: Watch the Baltic Dry Index
    The dry bulk and oil tankers seem primed for a rebound and it could be a very sharp rebound.

    Some names in dry bulk I like are PRGN, EXM, GNK, NMM, SBLK, and OCNF --- although EXM is my largest position. All of them pay very high dividends with the exception of SBLK, which cut the dividend in half recently and paid the balance in stock, and OCNF, which eliminated the dividend altogether. OCNF paid about $2.88 a year in dividends. I was tempted to sell, but didn't as OCNF had reported a terrific Q3 and was using the money to pay down debt and seek out acquisitions. If the company did not find ships to buy, they would have a lot of cash on hand which in turn would make them an attractive takeover target. With the US and China pouring trillions of dollars into infrastructure and credit starting to thaw, this may be a great opportunity for yield and growth.

    FRO and NAT seem like good bets if you want exposure to oil tankers. The companies pay high dividends and are well managed. Tankers are being used to store oil. I'm of the opinion --- albeit a minority --- that oil will not remain low for very long due to a series of geopolitical events combined with stronger than anticipated demand. Althought the oil tankers are attractive at these levels and I own them cheaper, I prefer the American and Canadian oil and natural gas Trusts.

    Sea Span is a terrific company and it's well priced at these levels. That said, it's my least favorite area in the shipping business. Sea Span is a container company. As such, it is much more directly leveraged to the consumer than other shipping companies and consumer discretionary spending will not rebound in 2009 --- especially if oil prices start to climb and take the rest of the commodities higher. People need food and energy more than a new pair of jeans.

    Happy New Year.
    Jan 01 12:54 pm |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • MLPs Entering 2009: High Yields Carry High Levels of Risk
    What doesn't carry a high amount of risk these days?

    I recently bought a basket of American and Canadian Nat Gas Trusts, including LINE at 11.50 and PWE at 10. I'm in the camp that oil and nat gas has bottomed. If Israel boils over into a regional conflict or a series of other geopolitical events occur, oil would go substantially higher in six months or at least to the 75-85 range that OPEC seeks. If oil prices do manage to stay low for an extended period of time, prices will be spring loaded to retest the old highs as soon as demand returns. I really like this group at these levels now that everyone is convinced that oil is going to remain depressed. This is the same group, including GS, that called for 200 dollar a barrel oil right before the collapse.

    Several of the dry bulk shippers also look interesting. I dipped into EXM at 4 and PRGN at 2.75, along with some others. The Baltic Dry Index is beaten down to incredibly low levels and credit is slowly returning to the market. Several of the shipping companies have insane dividends and are trading well below book level. China and the USA are going to spend trillions on rebuilding infrastructure which bodes well for the sector.

    Are these "investments"... risky? They may be. Then again, they may not be any riskier than any other sector in this crazy market. The key is to spread the risk. In retrospect, this may turn out to be the investment opportunity of a lifetime to lock in high yields.
    Dec 31 09:55 am |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Crude Oil Should Offer Investors Real Opportunity In 2009
    You don't have to wait for a hurricane. A series of geopolitical events has already begun. Israel and Gaza is about Iran and the price of oil.


    Dec 30 11:54 am |Rating: +2 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Barron's Finds a Win in Linn
    I've owned LINE for a while, trading it for a while and picking up a position around 11. If and when it goes to 22, I'll sell half the position.

    Management sold some stock, which was nothing out of the norm, and made some negative remarks,which sent the stock down to a very attractive level. The comment was directed more at the industry as a whole than it was to the company. The company is well hedged for 2009 and 2010, which leads me to believe that the Barron's article was correct in assuming the dividend is safe.

    I still believe that oil is spring loaded to go much higher over the next six months. The current price is simply not sustainable. Any geo-political event or series of events will certainly drive the price higher. Just look at the reaction to the Israel and Palestine ---- and neither country produces a drop of oil. If the region destabilizes, however, oil will soar. Seems doubtful that oil prices can remain at these levels for six more months, let alone two more years --- so this stock looks like a winner to me.

    The "pundits" predicting 25 dollar a barrel oil should pull their heads out of their butts. Too dangerous in this environment and impossible to sustain.

    Dec 29 19:39 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities
    The price of oil is unsustainable at these levels for any period of time and, the longer it stays under 40 dollars a barrel, the more likely it will spring load the price higher. Too many countries are dependent on oil to fund social programs and their economies. I wouldn't be surprised to see a geo-political event or a series of events next year --- unfortunately. With the printing presses running at full speed and the Fed rate at virtually zero, there is very little in the arsenal to fight inflation or support the US dollar. I agree that you need the basic essentials --- food, shelter, and energy --- to live and that commodities provide the basis for what we need. You can't eat gold, but I guess it comes in handy if you have a cavity.

    Despite the call for nuclear power, I don't see it replacing coal in the near future. Obama needs to create jobs now and nuclear takes time and planning. As much as everyone likes the concept of cheap nuclear energy to power the country, I doubt they are going to be willing to pay for building it out for the next twenty years or have a plant in their own backyards. Obama may well need to change his stance and embrace coal and technologies that allow for cleaner coal, rather than look for ways to bankrupt the mining companies. China is still building coal factories and they will continue to do so. For that reason I like the dry bulk shippers (EXM, PRGN, FRO), the coal mining and equipment companies, (BTU, WLT, JOYG), and the infrastructure plays (FWLT, FLR).

    I'm not sure that there is pent up demand for new cars anymore than there is pent up demand for new homes, but if I did I would want to bet on hybrids which require lithium batteries (SQM). I've been wondering why smaller home builders have not collapsed, but it seems to me that will have to happen before we see a bottom.

    The American consumer is tapped, which was evident from retail sales this year ---- culminating with a terrible holiday season. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive credit card defaults in the beginning of 2009, followed by a collapse in the commercial real estate market. It's ironic that the American taxpayer bailed out the banks and in return the banks cut credit lines and upped the interest rates to levels nothing short of usury.

    Next year might prove to be even tougher than 2008, but I'm hopeful that things will gradually improve. Every asset class in the world was overvalued and came back to Earth. If you pick the right spots and have any cash left in your pockets, it could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

    Dec 26 13:48 pm |Rating: +7 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Roger Wiegand: Oil Prices Create Industry Havoc
    If oil prices stay in the 30s or lower for another six months and a geopolitical event or a series of such event occurred we could see oil spike considerably higher than the previous high, taking commodity prices for the ride. With the Fed rate effectively at zero, there would be no way to fight inflation which would feed rising prices.
    Dec 25 19:14 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are the Dry Shippers Value Traps?
    The world is literally printing money, so sooner or later the credit crunch should begin to ease. My understanding is that there is still a great deal of demand for dry bulk shippers and oil tankers --- the problem lies in the letters of credit needed to ship cargo from one port to another. No dividend is truly safe in this environment, but the risk reward on EXM and PRGN looks interesting at these levels. Bought both at half the price and sold half the position, so there isn't much risk, but I would consider buying more if the BDI began to move again.
    Dec 25 13:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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