GoodPosture

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  • Beware of the Allure of Ethanol Investing
    I disagree with Neal's on 2nd generation biofuels. The key difference between corn ethanol refiners and cellulosic ethanol companies is in the novelty of the IP used in the conversion process. Corn ethanol technology has been publicly available for the past decade and few stepwise improvements have been achieved in efficiency or carbon conversion.

    If a vc-backed company commercializes a novel technique of converting cellulose (or another feedstock) into ethanol with dramatically higher conversion efficiency or lower capital requirements, that company will reap the marginal benefit for the life of its patents.

    While in the very long term, the company's rents will decline as their unique access to the technology will fall away, there will undeniably be substantial, if not perpetually sustainable, value in these companies.

    Much like in the drug industry, the key to understanding these stocks is in understanding the period of these extraordinary rents.
    Jun 16 22:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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