Carl Martin

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    • Gold Poised to Move Higher
      This author is not just some guy writing something. I've been following him for years, and he really does seem to know what he is talking about. He does tremendous amounts of research before writing anything,and provides really good home made charts to back everything up. Try going to his home page at zealllc.com
      Dec 30 11:45 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Economy Watch: Looking Back and Looking Ahead
      I think the reasoning (?) of the first two sentences of the author's conclusion are pretty silly. Apparently he thinks that if the market goes up and down a lot in intra-day moves now, this will somehow result in large gains in the next year. Next year might well result in large gains - just not for that reason - if that could even possibly qualify as a reason, for anyone. Because of this little oversight, I think the entire article should be questioned. There are plenty of other good articles both in support of and against his views, that offer sound reasoning all the way through.
      Dec 18 06:30 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • A (Somewhat Dated) Madoff Reader
      A simply amazing article ! Wasn't it Warren Buffet, who said that he didn't invest in Enron, because he couldn't understand how they made their money? It sounds like good advice to me, especially after reading this article.
      Dec 12 10:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold
      The paragraph about Canaccord Adams is bizarre at best, and simply totally inaccurate, or perhaps dishonest at the worst. First of all, I assume the author meant bearish, not bullish as written, in regards to which "camp they have now joined." Was that just a typo, or was that a "Freudian Slip," when what one hand prints the truth, while the other hand prints what is false, and the author's mind can't see it and correct it, before readers see the lie. We will never know, as the true author is hiding behind the FP Trading Desk. For those who don't already know, Keith Carpenter was the most bullish professional analyst on Potash Corp. If he has in fact changed his evaluation, then that is very significant indeed. However, his previous evaluations were supposed to be based upon earnings estimates, not stock market activity. The article implys that Keith Carpenter is now basing his earnings target on much lower earnings. In reality, it seems like "he" is doing just the opposite. He "apparently" is no longer basing his stock price target on earnings. Instead, he is "apparently" basing his stock price target on the very real ongoing fear and deterioration in the stock markets. I wonder what measurement tool "he" is using? Or is he just being used by the author for questionable purposes? Why isn't he holding on to his previous earnings and stock price estimates, and just saying that the on going market activities will likely take the share price all over the place, but mostly downward at least short term? In other words, it will take some time to get back to fundamentals. Why would a professional suddenly become such an amateur? I wonder what Keith Carpenter would think about this article? I also wonder what you think? And how about the editors at SA???
      Oct 06 05:57 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      Excuse me, the name is Michael Shedlock, sorry
      Oct 04 06:48 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      I think the article should have been titled "The Five Reasons That Are Most Certainly Not The Five Reasons, Why Fertilizer Stocks Are InThe Dirt." To start with I believe that there are far more than" just five reasons" to explain what's going on with AG stocks, and none of these other well worn reasons were even mentioned. Apparently the author is not aware of anything like the credit crises, a world wide crises of confidence, hedge fund activities, fear, and most appropriate ignorance, to name a just a few in no particular order. Ignorance, by the way does not mean dumb or stupid. It means a lack of correct knowledge or information, or more simply, just not knowing. In that light, try reading this article all over again. If you still have doubts, try reading the articles written by Michael Smedmark at this web site.
      Oct 04 06:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Bailout Bill Passes; What Happens Now?
      A simply amazing article! The author is certainly one of the few people on this planet to say it all,as it actually is. I will freely admit that my brain has serious difficulties accepting certain parts of the inflation/deflation argument, but until furthur, I will assume that the problem must be on my end, and not on the author's end. Many thanks for the article.
      Oct 04 05:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued
      About thirty years ago I read one of the best books on finance that I have ever read. It was a very short book simply entitled "What Is Money? After following the history of various types of money used over the centuries and the disasters that followed, the author presented his conclusion: MONEY IS TRUST, period. When the trust is broken the value of the money in whatever form, simply disappears.His case was VERY well documented.
      Oct 02 09:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011
      Think-About-It, Get Real! The only person on this planet, who can waste your own time is you! So stop holding other people responsible for your own foolishness, and start taking some responsibility for yourself. No one wants to hear about how unhappy you are wasting your time at seeking alpha. Only a very desperate loser would make a fool of themselves in public, in order to get some much needed attention. This website was created for serious investors to exchange their opinions and analysis about publicly traded companies, and you are very welcome to join the rest of us in this mutual pastime.
      Aug 29 05:08 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase
      Tim Plaehn,
      Thanks for your feedback. I agree that the market priced in the 2008 growth in 2007, but I don't agree that the present or future growth is slowing. On the contrary, I'm roughing out an article PROVING that the growth is increasing, but it won't be ready any time soon. I agree, that the market might well THINK that growth is slowing and acting accordingly, but I believe it's only a temporary rotation out of commdities. After all, a lot of, people once rotated in to commodities, well knowing, that they would also soon rotate out. Most "investors" just follow the crowd in the short term market swings.

      I am definitly not assuming that 201% (gross margin) growth or stock growth is going to occur "as far as the eye can see." That quote referred to fertilizer (especially potash) price increases, not gross margin increases, or stock increases. Of course, price increases usually result in gross margin increases, which also sometimes result in stock increases, but only if all else goes well.

      I continue to stand for every word in the article, even though there was some editing by SA.
      Aug 26 09:39 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI)
      GROTY, Check out the volume charts. I think the volume spikes represent the days when management is doing some heavy buying. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 might show up in the financial history books some day. Volume was at more than 25 million shares, compared to almost 11 million average the last three months. Management could have easily bought the remaining 5 million shares at prices between 195 and 205. So maybe the buying program is already over. What do you think?
      Jul 25 07:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI)
      GROTY, An excellant point! I'm aware that some companies abuse share repurchases, and /or make terrible mistakes, that they and shareholders seriously regret with the passage of time. I chose not to "muddy the waters" with all the relevant facts and pros and cons of buybacks, as I don't think many people quite understand what they are to begin with. You obviously do. The key to understanding whether Potash Corp's repurchase program is likely to be a good idea or not, would seem to hang on whether Warren Buffet's wise words apply to the present situation or not. Notice how the author is carefully hiding behind Warren Buffet's words. That seems like a safe place to hide, so I'll let him take all the heat, if there ever is any. There's not many comments on this article so far. It looks like the other one (The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust) is getting all the heat instead.
      Jul 24 08:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • What You Can - And Can't - Learn from Warren Buffett
      RICK KONRAD, You have a really clear way of thinking and expressing, on top of a very sharp mind.
      Jul 21 09:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      CYERMAN, No to your first two questions, yes to your third. Your line of thinking and questioning is very good and correct,so keep up the good work, but you are mostly thinking USA. Just use the same type of thinking and ask all the same type of questions, as applied to the whole world. Then you will get the answers you are looking for.
      Jul 21 09:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      WILL, I can't agree with your reasoning, but I feel your anger and frustration. It seems to be overpowering your power of reasoning. Not many people can reason well, when anger is in control of the mind. Try calming down a little and reading this article and blogs over again, perhaps on another day. There is a lot of valuble information being offered to you free of any charge.The price of a company's stock at any moment only represents the balance of supply and demand for the stock at that moment. The price is merely the mechanism that ensures the relative balance between supply and demand. Markets are only as rational as the people who buy and sell in them. Do you actually think that we investor humanoids are rational? Do you think that the going price of any stock somehow does, or should, represent the true value of the company? When a company's stock price is going down, at the same time that the news flow is very positive, and the company and industry fundamentals are very strong, rational investors see that as a great buying opportunity. What you see now is a just a market shake out, and all the scared uninformed bears are selling to the calm well informed bulls. One of those bulls buying heavily is the management of Potash Corp, not with their own money, but with the shareholders money. We who are long POT don't have to do anything. Management does it for us by buying the stock of the scared and uninformed bears, at bargain prices during market turndowns, which is the subject of my next article. If you really want to get angry, try clicking on the July 1st article "The Better Performing Half Of Potash Corp" and subsequent articles. That will really make your day, if anger is what you like best. Second quarter results are due on Thursday, don't miss out on all the fun!!!
      Jul 21 08:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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