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Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation
It has huge domestic reserves which are off the balance sheet and will use LNG - where it has a huge commitment - to establish a high marginal price for the less expensive to deliver, domestic resources.
Problem is that other have a lot of gas as well and this will remain in "glut" and undercut the LNG high marginal price without government interference or the bully boy tactics of the early Rockefellers.
If you hold XOM a strategy might be to sell high Options and skim the mystery price they now command.
Looking Toward 2009
There is a huge transfer of wealth underway from the taxpayer to friends and supporters of the Bush Administration. The inflation will be with us with a vengance shortly. The current rate is over 10% if one goes to historic mechanisms of measurement ( Shadowstats.com). Before the inflation hits all out the wealth will have either gone overseas or placed in to the currently artificially low cost of gold.
In summary we have been ripped off and may have to go to Paraguay to recover.
The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices
From the buy outs by Freddie and Fannie to the Plunge Protection Team and perversion of the CPI - there seems no limit to the games our hired help- the Federal Government - will play to make things look better than they are.
Inflation will come in with a crash in 6 to 18 mos and little will survive the onslaught other than commodities. Even they will lag the real rise in costs.
What is a poor citi9zen to do? Gold and silver will probably be commondeered by the DC mobsters - a matter of national security will be the claim. Get a farm and a barnfull of ammunition. Plow up and plant the road to your front door or take a trip to Paraguay with the Bushies.
Macy's' Problems Have Just Begun
Those of the North will be abandoned.
The consumer society is over I fear. This is obsolete property. More of a liability than an asset.
Internet as a News Source Overtakes All Media Except TV
Now in that they don't have to I may be dreaming but if they want to build a news franchise perhaps they should stop being pure parasites on the news development and reporting of others and do some of their own work.
Chesapeake Energy Unable to Rally Even After Positive News
The problems are that oil has tumbled, that the gas industry is bordering on glut and most of all the expansion of growth in sales and use has been passive on the part of the industry itself. I
It reminds me of the coal industry that was displaced by oil in the chemocal feedstock industry because the coal folk refused to put any money into research as to use of their product. They gave the chemical industry away.They got fat just saying you want coal? just back up to the tipple what you do with it is your business.
Natural gas is doing little more with their compressed gas vehicles. Why are they not converting the gas to methano or dimethyl diesel ? for transportation use? Stupid I suppose. The Chinese are spending a fortune in the far more difficult conversion of coal to these two transportation fuels.
Go with M-85 and the glut will dissappear and CHK will be back on track to develop and sell its resources.
Six Promising Post-Recession Sectors
Will things get better, of course they will as we adjust to a lower level of lifestyle as measured by our growth infatuated economic measurements.
The question is, how long, until we turn a corner in our measurement of public welfare or utility? Where does this myopia come from that the classic forms of " economic " growth are meaningful to any one but the self serving economists?
As William Henry Locke Anderson ,a high powered economist, from Ann Arbor said " this field is a fun filled arena of speculation but science and honest predictive practice it is not". It was a disappointment for my old roommate who had spent most of his life in studying the problems but he found more important things to spend his time on before he died.
The economy coming back? For any thing beyond a shallow minority this means nothing.
Understanding Government Debt: The Treasury's Indispensable Role
Further, see what we export relative to what we import. Cardboard, weapons, aircraft that arew subsidized by the taxpayer,unwanted and expensive services and some grain ( thank God) and few Yakima Apples.
If only we could find a market for our idiots.
Check out ShadowStats.com for a touch of reality and dump the " happy talk" in hopes that your distortions will keep the public quiet until you pass on. A strong dose of truth is now in order.
Deflation Is Just Around the Corner
The new rising tax burden is on the way.
Deflation is a nice idea for us relatively fixed income retirees but it is hardly real.
Does this bozo work for the Republican Economic Propaganda folk?
Canadian Energy Trusts Look Cheap: Harvest Is Well Positioned
The real big bet is PetroBank in my opinion for the Canadain future. Their technology for insitu recovery for tar sands is proven out. ( Higher yield, better oil, and lower in cost). They are now enterting the expansion phase and they bet the company and won on the Bakken. Their Columbian play is just iceing on their cake.
I own a mess of Can Roy's and a lot of PBG.to
The Pickens Plan Changes Its Strategy
The issue of natural gas as a feedstock for replacement of liquid fuels takes me to the direct use of methanol ( partially oxidized methane).
The DISC engine championed by Texaco and UPS in the last energy crunch can handle nearly pure methanol as can the idiotically small gas turbines such as the Capystone model with very high efficiency.
M-85 is my preferred fuel. Bank of America ran it's currier fleet on it for years with huge cuts in maintenance and emissions.
For non weight sensitive power ( rail roads and tow boats ) methanol run through a fuel cell makes sense. We are not out of options and a barrier against OPEC meddling is simple from a legislative viewpoint.
On Nov 17 10:22 AM Brahm wrote:
> The cylinder or space issues for CNG is not a significant issue in
> the case of CNG fired trucks.. The author's suggestions on liquid
> fuels, also advocated by many others and Mr. Pickens himself, is
> in my view a foolish intellectual contribution to the whole idea
> of global warming or energy independence due to the following reasons
> and others.
>
> Synthesis of liquid fuels (diesel) involves a thermal efficiency
> of about 50%. That means it takes about 2 MM BTU of CNG to produce
> one MM BTU of diesel! This chips off significantly the advasntage
> for a tacit objective of putting out less carbon to contain global
> warming. The author should not forget that rather than the volume
> of the tank it is the weight of the fuel and its BTU density which
> determines the overall performance (mpg) of the engine, if other
> issues such as engine burn characteristics, etc remain equivalent
> for the two fuels. BTU to BTU diesel is much more weighty than
> CNG!
>
> There is an economic dimension to the issues I have raised. The
> fuel material input costs, i.e. the cost of natural gas input for
> diesel, is double that of CNG as a direct firing fuel (low synthesis
> efficiency!). In other words, the present $6 per MM BTU CNG becomes
> a $12 per MMBTU input cost for diesel. Add to this plant capital,
> depreciation, interest on capital borrowed, ROR, etc, you have $16
> per MM BTU cost. Quite a lot more than $6 CNG!!! A massive shift
> to the use of this kind of diesel will roil gas markets, bring gas
> supply concerns, etc, etc and etc. MY guess is there would be no
> advantage vis-a-vis oil, especially if OPEC or other oil intersts
> turn themselves as upsetters of the apple-cart. Competition!!!
>
>
> There are other profound issues which I will leave you, MR. Pickens
> and others to think and browse about. But there are there. Without
> good thinking we may go down a sticky wcket again. Please! Us,
> little people, and OBAMA does not need another mess on our hands
> through shoddy thinking and slickness. Please continue the good
> work with my blessings! And, if you have the energy to do it check
> it out with me. I am "retired", though, but would not mind giving
> my inputs
This Mess Is Turning Us All into Accountants
As one once said "there comes a time when silence is betrayal". In a public servant this "silence" is unforgivable.
Now that the preverbal has started to hit the fan there is a rush to save Wall Street. Paulson is either taking care of his buddies or myopic to the point of public blindness. He knows and likely cares, squat about the suffering of the general public. All he knows is his friends in the financial markets and thinks their continued prosperity is critical to the nation's survival.
This fabric of lies and deferrals must come apart with some major dose of truth. What is the Senate voting on. Can you find a "slip bill" to study it. No, the truth has been aborted again. Secrecy reigns accountability is forgotten and a risk/ reward formula for the public put aside.
Arrogant and stupid. We must let the disease run it's course.
Can Gold Be Suppressed Indefinitely?
I suspect the Plunge Protection Team ( Tres, Fed Res, SEC and Com Ex ) are selling futures against our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to push oil down. Paulson supposedly said in July he wanted oila at $100 before the election.
This risk/expenditure of public assets ( the SPR) is criminal when used for political purposes
Exxon's Hoard
As to Exxon itself it seems they are slowly shifting towards natural gas as a focal product and going to use LNG as a item to establish a high marginal price. The growing domestic NG industry such as CHK may not go along with this once they start to produce some of the " deep gas " aka geopressured.
But then all life is uncertian and subject to external forces.
Ride the Canada Rails,Don't Short the Stocks - UBS
Just wish they would run some pipelines in parallel. It may come with Kittemat and the oil port.