BrunoT

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  • President of Euro Pacific Capital on Gold and the Dollar
    Gold is up quite a bit recently, this is an old interview most likely. And since when is "investing" done over a time horizon of less than a year? To say Schiff was "wrong" you'd have to assume that only what happened in the last 4 months or so counts.

    Only if one bought gold in March or late summer of '08 and then sold it did one "lose" anything, and even then one lost far less than if he'd owned US stocks.

    Foreign stocks are way down along with the world economies, but if you actually READ Schiff's book he says to buy DIVIDEND PAYING stocks that are fundamentally sound so that you keep collecting the dividend during the downturn. Yes, he was surprised like most of us that the dollar rose in value as the world fled to it. But that has already reversed and the outlook is gloomy for it.

    If Peter Schiff is wrong everything will be ok and you still have a job. If Mike Norman is wrong you're unemployed and down another 40% on your investments. You choose.
    Dec 30 11:13 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Enlightening the Gold Bugs
    Maybe your daughter should write a column on Seeking Alpha. They apparently allow anyone with an opinion, however misinformed, to pontificate here.

    Santa Claus says $60T (now $68T) worth of unpayable future promises says you're wrong.

    But good luck with those gold shorts. Just please send your daughter to live with relatives and don't make her share the homeless shelter with you.
    Dec 26 08:13 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Case for Higher Interest Rates and Lower Home Prices
    Silly men all trying to figure out the best way to use government to manipulate markets. Does occur to any of you that that is why we're in this situation in the first place?

    Let the market decide the price, interest rate, and down payment requirements. Or have you all led such cushy soft lives that you can't stand the thought of a few years of pain?

    Nobody should be raising or lowering rates or home prices. When you fool with market forces they snap back and bite you in the rear end. Too bad they don't teach common sense in business schools.
    Dec 25 14:20 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Own Gold? Time to Fold
    I think it IS a bubble. You're apparently stuck thinking in terms of nominal dollars. If inflation does take off those treasuries will drop in value pretty fast. There may be no "greater fool" left who wants them at that point. That sounds a lot like the dot.com and real estate bubbles to me. Just step back and think about it. 0% interest. What a deal! If it sounds absurd (like home prices did and tech stock prices did) it probably is.


    On Dec 16 10:33 AM HPLovecraft wrote:

    > I recall the same logic during the recent housing bubble....people
    > denying it was a bubble.
    >
    > Are Treasuries a bigger credit risk than Campbell's soup?
    >
    > www.thedeal.com/dealsc...
    >
    Dec 17 15:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Own Gold? Time to Fold
    GLD is up about 12-13% since this was written. So much for yet another theory on why gold sucks. And yet another reason why crowing over a few months' movement in prices is asinine for either side. I made 47% on gold in one period of time. Then lost around 30%, and now it's back up 25% from its low as I bought more then. So am I right or wrong? The theory doesn't change. Life is long term. So why gloat or stew over what happens in a few months' time?

    Meanwhile I see gold was the only major asset class to gain (2%) in the last year to date chart I saw. Even the dollar was down a couple percent. So it's hardly been a loser even if it hasn't soared.

    As for predicting its future, let's say you have $150,000 in credit card debt and earn $75,000 a year. You also just borrowed another $150,000 from foreigners and others to lend to your friends and family who are having hard times, based solely on your good reputation. You have also promised to support your parents and children in their retirements but have nothing saved for it.

    But you have a legal way to print the money to pay your debts off and fund all these promises. You tell me, are you going to use it or simply default on all your debts and be ruined?

    It doesn't take a lot of technical jargon to understand the concept. This is not the first time in history governments have done this. And it's not like there is some great alternative investment you're foregoing by buying things like oil companies and gold.

    Dec 17 15:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dollar Down, Gold Up: Great News?
    While you perhaps can't be totally prepared for hyperinflation's disruptive effects, I agree with the other poster that there are MANY things one can do to create an environment where one is better off.

    1. Own tangible assets like gold, (oil, ag commodities, etc) not fiat money.
    2. Buy major purchases now so you have "it". Not a terrible idea to buy two of some things and store the 2nd if practical. (buy 2 slightly used cars instead of one)
    3. Obtain the biggest fixed rate low interest (currently about 5.75%)mortgage you can on your home located in a rural area away from high crime so that at least that burden goes away in a hyperinflation, as you can pay if off with a week's salary.
    4. Guns, ammo for home protection, food and other supplies for times when the distribution network breaks down.
    5. Again, buy things that don't spoil now when they're as cheap as they ever will be.

    Yes, things will be rough. But if you have no effective house payment, no car payment (or a fixed rate one that also evaporated with hyperinflation) and a newer car that will last you through a 10 year depression, gold in your hands to trade for goods, a properly rotated stock of food and other non-perishable supplies to tide you through disruptions, you'll certainly be better off than 99% of people out there.

    Most Weimar Germans did survive. True the "good times" that followed weren't my cup o tea. But assuming we avoid a dictatorship the economy will readjust even if it collapses.
    Dec 17 14:33 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • NBER Eggheads Finally Proclaim a Recession
    This is all based on phoney ginned up government statistics on inflation so why even bother? Google "hedonics" or "core inflation" and have a good laugh.
    Dec 02 11:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Don't Give Up on Gold Just Yet
    One of the worst years on record? You sure about that?

    The YTD return shown for GLD at yahoo.com was positive 3.17% until yesterday's drop off.

    Then compare that to how much oil an ounce of gold will buy you. Nearly twice as much! By that metric gold is way way up.

    Then compare an oz of gold to the dow. The ratio went from something like 15-1 to 10-1. So again, way way up. The Dow is down over 40%. Gold isn't.

    An oz of gold also buys more house, more pickup truck, and even more agricultural commodities than it did a year ago.

    Sounds to me like it's serving its role as a true store of value. Unless one went "all in" at $1,000/oz it wasn't a bad year at all.



    Dec 02 09:44 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold: War of Attrition
    JasonC,

    I wonder if in 2 years you will admit how wrong you were with the same pomposity as you laid out your current theory.

    $60 Trillion in unfunded obligations, annual $1-2 Trillion fiscal deficits, and and rolling waves of multi-billion "bailouts" in our future (of states, of banks, of homeowners with mortgages, etc) tell anyone who can do basic math that massive inflation will result.

    Where'd you take economics 101? University of Zimbabwe?
    Oct 30 12:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners
    Greg, I'm curious why you choose 1980 as a "buy and hold" date and not say, 2001? Or 1974? I bet if you take ANY asset class and go back to its all time high as a buy date, you won't have an impressive return! Inflation adjusted that high would be about $2500 today, or more than 3 times what it's priced at now.

    Do you think buying at the highest high of a market is typical? Do you think $650-$700/oz is the higest gold has been or will be?

    And do you really think the author is saying "buy and never ever ever sell ever" ? He's saying buy it soon, hold it a few years, then sell it when appropriate. NOT buy it, hold it till it rises and don't sell, then hold it till it drops to where you've lost money, and THEN sell! As the economic conditions change, the value of holding gold will as well.

    The author points out in his later comments that gold has done better than most other asset classes even as it "burst". (quiz: Which is better, losing 25% in gold for a few months (assuming you bought at the high) or losing 40% in the stock market?) Go check the market's performance inflation-adjusted for the last 8 years. It looks about the same as if you bought gold in 1982!

    I happen to agree that it will rise since we have $60T of future govn't obligations that could not be met even if we taxed all personal income 100%. So this "deflation" of a few trillion dollars will seem like a drop in the bucket soon as the printing presses pour money into the system like never before.

    We haven't even seen the dip in tax revenues from a recession yet. We'll be lucky not to hit $2 Trillion a year on-budget deficits within a couple of years. But hey, the dollar has strengthened 20% for a few months, so gold is obviously a barbaric relic, I'm selling! Nothing's stronger for the dollar than deficit spending, right?
    Oct 28 13:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold in a Credit Crisis
    $1 Trillion plus deficits on the horizon for as far as the eye can see say you're wrong antigoldbug. As does history. Gold was $250 or so 7 years ago. It's about triple that even after a big correction. How's that stock market looking in comparison? Or Real estate? Or bonds? If this shiny stuff is so worthless except as jewelry why is this the case?

    Go check your own records Mr. Commodities expert. There have been huge (around 50%) corrections in oil, wheat, soybeans, corn, etc while all marched steadily up in price.

    My guess is you're a FORMER employee for a reason.
    Oct 25 11:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold, Silver and Deflation
    Such simplistic arguments put forth in some of the quoted columns! "if gold didn't soar during the crash it never will!" Does it even occur to the writer that when you suck trillons of debt out of the economy and people still have hope for "saving" it, then most won't rush to gold? Only when the reality dawns will gold rise. There are many many factors pulling on the price of all assets. A single simplistic rationale won't cut it.

    Does nobody recognize that if gold goes down in a "deflation" when priced in dollars that those dollars will buy you more stuff? Yet if we see inflation and you're in gold it will probably also go up and mirror that? I didn't get the impression from the comments that this was understood. Gotta stop thinking just in terms of dollars.

    How much house or car or clothing or food will an oz of gold buy you? That is the important question. That is the beauty of it in a crisis. If things turn out to be good, you keep most of your investment and your job. But if things hit the fan, you are protected.
    Oct 17 14:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Oil Heading for $150 a Barrel, Gold for $1500 an Ounce - Merrill
    Your infantile style does little to convince anyone of anything you're trying to say. You'd be more effective with a grownup approach.
    Oct 17 11:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Moral Hazard: The Real Culprit of the Financial Crisis
    This happened because of a morality problem, period. By that I mean we tolerate dishonesty, we wink at it as we fill out no doc loan applications, we smiled as our home appraiser simply matched whatever we put down as our home's value instead of giving an honest appraisal. We listened to paid liars on TV tell us everything was fine in 2006-2007 up until it wasn't. We chuckled to ourselves at what great deals we got from the contractors who used illegal labor or paid workers cash off the books, then agreed to pay them cash so they could avoid their taxes in return for a lower price. We graduate students who can't read or write or balance a checkbook, knowing we're doing them and our nation a disservice.

    Think we're not a nation that tolerates dishonesty? Go flip on the radio and listen to just about any advertisement, be it for weight loss powder or get rich quick schemes. We know this dishonesty and unprincipled behavior goes on constantly in almost every phase of life, but we tolerated it. We tolerated it because we thought if it made or saved us a little extra money it would be ok. And now it's not ok.

    Oct 16 12:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near
    Epeon. It's very volatile. My Canadian royalty trust holding were down 13% today. So much for it already being discounted for the future recession! (even though it was already almost 50% down off highs)

    I stick to the macro picture and let the traders gamble on the short term moves. Oil is a needed product and available relatively "cheap" today. It will move up with inflation, so it has some inflation hedge properties built in. I wouldn't own most stocks today though. Not a ton of upside.
    Oct 15 18:39 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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