michaelschn

Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
comments5
  • Positive ratings 0
  • Negative ratings 0
  • Net rating 0
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:

Latest Comments
5 Comments

    • Wed Sep 24th 16:08 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Time To Buy Is When Blood's In the Streets
      Even ignoring the future moral hazard of this bail-out, ignoring all the damage bad loans have already done by huge mis-allocation of resources and investment the author is deadly wrong in his own point of view.

      His assumption is that Mortgage backed securities are at the bottom therefore it makes sense to invest in them. However, if this is a bottom it is clearly a "false bottom". Housing is still madly overpriced. As it keeps declining much more mortgages will foreclose making those securities obviously of no value even for those who doubt it today.
      As everyone knows investing at the false bottom is much worse than investing at the top.

      On top of this, if we compare USA to a private investor, the only analogy is with one already deep in debt. One who keeps evading Bankruptcy by constantly juggling more and more credit cards with initial teaser rates to pay minimum payments on older ones. The funds needed for this new "investment" may be only borrowed. By this our "investor" risks sharp rise in all those existing rates, with inevitable bankruptcy as the result.

      Overall, it's an extremely bad article. I can't even be sure the author is honest in his arguments. While reading it I felt that he just want to sell obviously wrong conclusions by using whatever reasoning he is able to mobilize.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 17th 02:56 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will the Saudis Increase Oil Production?
      There is a huge difference between the statements: "Saudi Arabia will start pumping from its new 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah field within the next month..." and "...Saudis ... produce 10 million barrels a day next month".

      1. 500kbrl/day is the maximum field capacity. If they only start pumping from it next month there is no way they can bring the output to the maximum that same month if ever. They also need to fill up all pipes and storage volumes before they can really output all oil they pump.

      2. Many older fields there seam to be in terminal decline. By the time Khursaniyah starts flowing to export it will need to offset that decline as well. We do not know if it even will be able to do that. Even if it does the decline will go on, so this peak in production won't be sustainable.

      3. Even if they add 500kbarrels a day it will be still sort of those 10mbarrels a day.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 17th 02:32 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market
      The big difference between Ukraine and countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan etc. is climate there. You need energy to produce things in these countries. In Ukraine you need a lot of energy to just survive. The only reliable energy resource Ukraine has is coal. But coal production is in horrible state. There are constant fatal accidents there. Production is in decline. On top of all this the current government considers miners its worse enemy, because they overwhelmingly support pro-Russian opposition. Ukrainian coalition parties rely on the rural and small towns electorate of the west and north of the country as well as on government employees in Kiev.

      On the other hand these villages and small towns can't produce anything valuable for the West. Their agriculture can't compete with much warmer countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary etc.

      Ironically, it makes Ukraine dependent on Russian natural gas and oil sold with huge discounts, (compared to international prices). This put Ukraine at complete mercy of Russian political games.

      With Russian policy of raising natural gas prices inside Russia itself (with the goal of reaching the world prices level by 2012) Ukraine faces a huge energy crisis. Unlike small nations like Latvia and Estonia which rely on Western financial support and on tourism (including sex tourism from UK and alcoholic tourism from Scandinavia) Ukraine is to big to get this kind of help.

      Considering all this and also the fact that much of the growth there is due to worldwide real estate bubble which is not sustainable I can't see how it may be a good place to invest in.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 20th 18:55 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      The article is all wrong. Oil prices don't change. It's $US going down. $US is worth less than 1/80 of a barrel today. It will go further down. It's been actively devalued. When they bailout housing bubble $US will quickly decline. The proposed Fanni Mae / Freddy Mac cup adjustment means devaluation of $US from 1/427000 of the top insured mortgage to 1/625000 of the same real thing. This is a value inflation of 46.3%. Price inflation of other real things must quickly catch up.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 20th 18:53 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80
      The article is all wrong. Oil prices don't change. It's $US going down. $US is worth less than 1/80 of a barrel today. It will go further down. It's been actively devalued. When they bailout housing bubble $US will quickly decline. The proposed Fanni Mae / Freddy Mac cup adjustment means devaluation of $US from 1/427000 of the top insured mortgage to 1/625000 of the same real thing. This is a value inflation of 46.3%. Price inflation of other real things must quickly catch up.
      View article »