Georealist

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457 Comments

    • Thu Dec 4th 22:00 PM
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      Rating: +1 -2
      Commented on:
      Energy Investing: Scenarios for a Turnaround
      You've asked questions..not provided analysis or direction! And all done in an incredibly long winded flummox....
      The touchstones for ANY resource are..
      1. How well can economies do without what this resource provides?
      2. If the resource is underpriced and sources are shut down or not developed what is the pricing structure for product likely to look like when marginal demand increases? How long will it logically take for supply to catch up to demand?
      3. What are the least risky ways to play reality hitting home?
      View article »
    • Thu Dec 4th 09:42 AM
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      Rating: +3 -1
      Commented on:
      Dow Will Equal Gold in 2009
      There are lots of things some people can't see...everything happens at a much accelerated pace. The 1970s pace of 18 months for a typical recession to play itself out is now 6-9 months...There's no doubt gold and silver will eventually resume their bull move....next June for $1200 gold and $20 silver is about rght..
      Gold will shoot thru $1000 just about the time the typical investor realized their T-bill money is a honey trap losing 5% a year...Fringe players have been talking about "fiat" money for decades...that's another concept that will not be fringe anymore..it will be on everyone's lips.
      As for the Dow..it will move WITH..not against gold and silver...but it's % gain and future will not protect against the pernicious inflation we'll see..TRILLIONS ARE COMING HOME TO ROOST..and befor they're done there will be plenty more where that came from.
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 3rd 21:49 PM
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      Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Comparing Volatility of Gold to Its Price
      Oh Reality man...please allow me to lay a little real world on you..No one..as in NO SINGLE PERSON EVER...wants to be called a fool or insulted into changing their conduct. So heres a little primer on how to move the unmoved...
      Physical gold has several advantages..
      1. It is in your hands..no small matter if there are those who manipulate the paper world.
      2. Premiums have been very substantial..When I first started buying gold in 1979 a 3-5% markup..depending on the coin was typical. Very demanding to find now, unless one is buying in quantity.
      The downside..
      1. You'll need a 10-15% move up to make ANY money...and you have to find a dependable buyer.
      2. You lose out on very quick moves..ad the markets are all about volatility...

      The gold miners also have a place in one's portfolio..my personal take on the precious metals...as a % of total portfolio...
      1. 5% physical gold...
      2. 5% physical silver....
      3. 5% paper gold..GLD works well..even DGP is a great wealth builder..
      4. 5-7% SLV or SLW..the upside to both is dramatic..SLW is silver on the cheap....
      5. Gold miners...AUY...GG...FC... (many metals)
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 3rd 20:40 PM
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      Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Canadian Petroleum Sector: The Squeeze Is On
      The previous comment bears scrutiny...I don't know for fact that 6% of the Chinese workforce is involved in exports..where does that figure come from?? Accelerating internal demand requires incomes..not subsitance incomes but incomes that produce savings..If only 6% of the Chinese workforce is involved in exports (???) then just where is this excess income to spur internal growth supposed to come from? Is the Chinese govt going to pass out checks? Start massive infrastructure projects?
      Also..and this is something anyone who posts on this site and pretends to expertise should know..China is coal heavy...they rely on oil imports but it is COAL that drives their industrial economy. Whatever coal they need in excess of their own production is easily gotten from Australia.
      The coal that is critical to steel production is metallurgical coal..all from Australia. Duh.
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 3rd 13:02 PM
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      Rating: +1 -2
      Commented on:
      The American Crisis and the Case for an Inflationary Depression
      The reinflation taking place is a process..paultauts comment that no one is borrowing this money is..as usual..blindsided by the truth. The Fed has taken over much of what everyone saw the Treasury doing for decades...handling internal debt. The Treasury has to go hat in hand for every dollar..the Fed answers to NOBODY..as in NOT A SINGLE PERSON. The money (liquidity) the Fed is pumping into financial institutions is finding its way into T bill and bonds. Voila! Who the hell needs Chinese to buy these things..the Fed thru proxies does it.
      Mr. Obama is no fool...he will tell his new financial people to tighten the screws on lenders to loosen the loan spigot to the public..this will happen when programs are in place and appropriate acronyms have been established so they can be sold on the nightly news programs.
      May-June of 2009 this money..which now exists in ENORMOUS amounts as free reserves in the Fed....starts shopping itself. The reflating will take on headline proportions and be sold as "Rebuilding the Economy.." "Investing in a Sustainable Economic Future.." work out a few..it's not that tough.
      As for the deflators...there will continue to be this whipsawing..When China throws in the towel in about 6 weeks it could get very nasty..but China also knows how to play the reflate game..and as Alan Greenspan
      showed the world for years....don't worry about money..there's plenty more where that came from.
      By the way..the article is retro and linear....
      View article »
    • Wed Dec 3rd 09:35 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Freeport-McMoRan: Suspends Dividend, Slashes Targets
      FCX will be back...by late Spring. This is a smart move..though painful for investors. This is written before the bell on Wed and I'm sure FCX will get hammered. The problem is not that there will be no liquidity working thru the system to stimulate product demand..it's that right now...6-9 months looks most reasonable and that's with a cold Winter in between.
      The real story in this enormous untanglement will be the reigniting of China..that fall from fantasy hasn't been fully accounted for yet and with them goes the near term hopes of Australia (and BHP)...
      This IS that chance (coming VERY soon) to buy Oil for $45..Gold for under $700 perhaps..and Silver for $9..the opportunity that everyone looks back on and says.."My god, we could have had that for only..."
      Remeber Rothschilds COMPLETE quote.."Buy when there's blood running in the street..even if it's your own..."
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 22:08 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000
      For those posters not aware..WE ARE NOT IN THE 1990s....always smart to start the discussion in the correct decade..or century.
      Citi is not a monolithic unity...many parts..many opnions..this one on gold makes much sense..
      This liquidity has to come out somewhere..Some tremendous presure will start to build in Spring 2009. At the first hint of a US$ weakening..at the first whiff of inflation..just about the time the markets realize no new..as in none!..oil product has been developed and is on line..then watch the stuff fly.
      Those genius' in those1.25% T-bills will start slamming thru the "I'm getting hammered" door and voila! Gold is $1500 and climbing $75 a week..and silver..lost in the shuffle ....slams past $25 on a one way trip to $50.......
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 2nd 20:59 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Way to Hedge Gold Stocks
      Just a few things that need some light..First.when someone BUYS DZZ they are most certainly NOT hedging AUY or any other mining stock. They ARE hedging (establishing a Double Short positions) gold..
      Mining stocks move..more thanone would hope..in alternate universes..and an investor is certainly not covering specific risk in AUY...

      I have a little different take on the whole long position side.....and the short. I'd BUY gold (GLD) any time we move to a standard deviation below 2 for the 52 week moving average. I'd go long DZZ (in a conservative averaging in basis!) at 2 or 3 standard deviations ABOVE the 52 week average gold price.
      It's all about the percentages baby...they didn't build Las Vegas going all in.
      View article »
    • Mon Dec 1st 10:00 AM
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      Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      The Ag Industry: Another Credit Crisis Casualty?
      There's a series of pernicious assumptions in this analysis..first, that emerging market producers have the capacity and know how to take credit and translate it into efficient, profitable market operations. They are EMERGING for a reason..infrastructure issues (not the least of which includes transport)..political issues..knowledge and implementation issues..water issues..and last but not least...repayment issues.
      The real ag game is being played on the nation state front..countries that have either trashed or never had suitable growing environments are buying huge chunks of arable land in African countries for instance..This is a VERY two edged sword..He who sells can also take back.
      You may have a certain point to make..however..you have NO investible ideas! This is an INVESTMENT blog...comprende???
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 30th 12:59 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player
      Interesting comments..especially Mr. Lathrops..apparently he thinks we should stupidly stare at trillions in potential liquidity andmay..well..go play golf. The Gulf States taking steps to protect themselves sounds very reasonable to me...their geographic location is enviable and they have the monetary heft to carefully pull it off.
      Nothing wrong with the ETF metals funds...a physical position is always the best foundation but sometimes not the easiest to trade. If any of this gets further than speculation..and it has a very good chance of doing so...silver could e the biggest winner yet.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 28th 11:49 AM
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      Rating: +8 -2
      Commented on:
      In Search of the Next Reserve Currency
      This entire thread reminds me of the fantasy currency discussion a few months back..the Iranian Bourse! This was the NEXT great threat to the dollar..all to be held at a location (I saw real pictures of this place) that makes Elko Nevada look decidedly upscale. ALL..as in every word..of some currency taking the US$ place as a reserve currency is absurd..as for the European community..that group of gutless, pretentious papershufflers will be fortunate to keep the Euro on resucitation thru 2010.
      The ONLY "currency" that could possibly take its place alongside the dollar in the commercial scheme of things is gold.The GCC (major Gulf States oil powers) have great respect for gold..and IF they were to mandate all oil sales be paid for on a 90/10 (90% US$ and 10% gold)
      basis until 2012..then 80/20 at that point just who would..or could..refuse????
      This would be a very shrewd move by the Gulf oil powers..they'd protect themselves against this liquidity fest the Fed and Treasury are indulging in..and they could use the gold as the foundation for their transition to THE world banking power.....
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 23:31 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Silver Lining for Precious Metal Bugs
      I suppose you don't need another negative response...my advice is not to post on gold and/or silver until you know what your talking about. The people who invest in either are hard core and very well informed. Some tend to lean towards the conspiracy side too much to suit me..but you're heavily overmatched here.
      By the by..silver has many advantages over gold that may well show themselves soon..It's a highly respected tech metal..including water purification, ultra demanding mirrored surfaces, ad infinitum...It also is, and will continue to be, a very economical way for those who don't have the $1500 an ounce gold will soon command to participate in something like real money.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 21:08 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Guesses Are Wrong Again, Contango Grows
      It's time to come back to some basics..instead of the convoluted reasoning that's infected markets for so long. Contango is a normal condition. Distant prices exceed current spot. This may, of course, if the amount is great enough, cause hoarding..buy now..avoid the pain later. What we are seeing, however, are investors doing the math and looking at what is inevitable in the oil/gas market. Less drilling..less product..IEA report=Terrible news...price 6 months from now will be higher.
      A very smart assumption. Enjoy your $2 gas..it will NEVER last.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 09:41 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Diminishing Safe Haven Matrix
      Well written and to the point..That NEXT scenario is most interesting. My take is we are very likely to see a divergence coming. Equities will likely take another dose of strong medicine in the early Winter..only this time the US$ may not fare so well as a safe haven..and UDN looks very appetizing with far to go.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 25th 21:32 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Reasoning Behind Oil's Irrationality
      So..oil is irrationally priced..but Mr. Ward gives endless reasons explaining why it's not! Every commodity explodes past a pure supply/demand point..oil did it..gold has done it..silver certainly has done it. It hardly needs conspiracy theories or hints of them to account for this..pure greed and a realization that at the end of any boomlet the least capable want on the wagon.
      Also..it helps to gets one's stats right..if we're talking about crude oil..the Peak production year was 2005 with73.81 MBd..if..IF..NGLs are included then 86 and change in 2007 is the right number....
      The problem with this character is he attempts to intimidate with numbers and shallow analysis..he doesn't know which direction he's going in...so why would we!
      View article »