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  • Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil
    whisperonthewind:

    I am also concerned about the Canadian taxes, but am in a wait and see mode about how they will work, and how Canadian Oil Sands in particular will restructure as a consequence of the taxes. If the situation will be adverse, the market would probably phase in negative price consequences before the effective date of tax changes. It will also be necessary to weigh the extraordinary long-life reserves in the value equation. There is no question that the Canadian government will take a larger piece of the pie. It's just a matter of whether the remaining piece will be attractive. The US trusts are shorter reserve life.
    Jan 01 09:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil
    Whisperonthewind:

    The list of securities in the article is not rerpesented as comprehensive. It covers principally industry groups and a few individual securities of particular interest to us for the purpose being discussed in the article. We find the trusts we mentioned more attractive for the purpose than the ones you mentioned.

    I could give you an even longer list of securities not included.

    If the securities you name are of particular interest to you, this is the place to present what you know about them and discuss them.

    For comprehensive coverage of royalty trusts, you might read articles by and visit the website of Kurt Wulf (McDep.com)
    Dec 30 07:17 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whither Oil Prices?
    Kebu77

    The 1.26% may or may not be cute, but it is not made up. That is the rate at which crude increased per month form the beginning of the data period in the 1990's through the end of the data period. the analysis is to extend that growth rate to see where it goes. the high line is simple extrapolation of the historical curve. the low line, I will, grant begins at an arbitrary point, but one that makes sense to us (9/11), using the longer term historical growth rate. there is no right or wrong in extrapolation, only potential interest. it means something to some and not to others. it's just one more piece of information in a larger assemblage of information seeking insight.
    Sep 09 17:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whither Oil Prices?
    gigem77 --

    the TOT and PBR figures you cite sound like pretty good floor numbers on oil prices (excluding any temporary spike down that could, but probably will not occur). the major oil companies will not provide the market with oil below their replacement cost, and those with low costs in OPEC have no current incentive to take it lower. the long-term forces are up.
    Sep 07 17:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Whither Oil Prices?
    Yes, OPEC has high control over prices until and unless there are sufficient alternatives to break their grip. At some price level the "demand destruction" effect begins to cap their capacity to raise prices, and to stimulate strong moves to alternatives.

    The $80 to $100 floor level has been a discussion point by Iran recently. For example, the French new service AFP printed this article today:

    "Iran wants OPEC output cut to target quotas

    3 hours ago

    TEHRAN (AFP) — Iran said on Sunday that OPEC members should cut output to the agreed target quotas in the face of falling oil prices, two days before the cartel meets in Vienna, state-run IRNA news agency reported.

    "The market does not need more oil and there is no need for excess production given the fall of oil prices," Iran's envoy to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mohammad Ali Khatibi told IRNA.

    "Members should return to the agreed quota and respect it. If a member does not want to go back to the OPEC quota they should have a reason," he added.

    "The situation of demand and supply for oil in the world and the global economy indicates a weakening of demand," Khatibi said.

    Iran is the second largest exporter in the OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of the world's oil. Crude oil, which hit a record high of 147 dollars on July 11, has lost over 40 dollars in less than two months.

    Khatibi said that "reasonable" crude prices could not go lower than 80 dollars a barrel.

    "International oil companies say that producing a barrel of crude in some new fields costs 80 dollars so the oil prices cannot be lower than this considering a reasonable profit for production," Khatibi said.

    Iran's oil minister Gholam Hossein Nozari on Tuesday called on OPEC to discuss quota-busting in its September 9 meeting and said that 100 dollars a barrel was "a minimum" for oil prices."
    Sep 07 11:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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