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It's What Apple's Not Doing That Has Analysts Worried

The analysts are fretting because NPD claims mac year over year sales while up 22% in October were down 1% in November. That is still way up while prices are firm. Let us say 11% rise in revenues over 2 months with margins about the same. The pc makers recorded 7.5% gain in November but the average selling price is down about 20% which is a net loss in revenues with lower margins. Apple is holding the line and the analysts can't believe they can sell premium in this economy. Look at cars, the big commodity makers GM, Chrysler and Ford are almost bankrupt while BMW and VW are doing fine.
Jan 08 15:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Buy, Sell or Hold: Research in Motion Poised to Snag More Market Share

They handily beat guidance after preannouncing that they would miss the original estimate. That is 3 quarters in a row of missed earnings. The new phones are problematic (Storm), too expnsive (the bold) and sold thru a third tier carrier (the flip). Apple has one phone with two memory sizes. Rimm has about 20 phones and there is the problem. One giant company with people working on one phone as a platform and one smaller company trying to keep 20 phones going.
Jan 07 15:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Apple: Press Needs to 'Get Over' Steve's Secrecy

How about the release by silicon alley insider today at 12:58 pm saying Jobs' cancer is back. Just look at the one day chart and you will see the stock go from positive to negative in a minute.

I remain amazed that Jobs health is such an issue. Meanwhile, the analysts and pundits remark that Apple blew it by not lowering prices, revamping the mac mini or making a netbook to stop the loss of share to lower price machines. Right. If Apple was suffering and sales were dropping then you would expect this. But apple is selling computers and iphones and touches. I get a call from a friend almost every week asking what mac should they buy since they are tired of windows. No one balks about the prices even when I tell them they could save a few dollars with last years model or a refurb. They all buy brand new and do not blink. Anyone out there buying a $1500 Dell. Doubt it.
Jan 06 19:12 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tech Sector: 10 Predictions for the 'Net in '09

What about itunes, Amazon unbox, and Hulu putting Blockbuster or Netflix out of business.

What about the iphone's impact on eliminating the development of the mobile web since it is not necessary on the iphone.

Dec 31 16:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
iPhone Rumors Confirmed: Coming to a Wal-Mart Near You

I think AT&T wanted the phones at Walmart since they are an authorized AT&T reseller and I assume a rather large one. Walmart already sells all the ipods. As for macs don't expect them at walmart but I could be wrong. Best Buy is selling macs but the salespeople (pc term) at Best Buy are not apple caliber geniuses. For Apple, Best Buy gives them a special display area which sets Apple apart from the rest of the pcs. Walmart will do the same for Apple on the iphone, lots of show for little to no cost to Apple.

It almost seems like Apple is picking winners and losers in consumer electronics by selling macs at Best Buy but not at Circuit City. Now Circuit is in bankruptcy. They pick Walmart over Target, is that a warning to Targets consumer electronics department. We will see
Dec 27 18:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Maybe Smashing Pumpkins, who this week confirmed they will no longer release albums, are on to something: The album format is fading, and at an accelerating rate, Pali Research says. "While digital single sales are up 25% in Q4, total albums (combining physical with digital) are down 22%."

If you can post a website and get on iTunes why have a record label, The costs of distribution for the seller are now 30% which is Apple's take for sales on itunes which has to be less than the record company takes.
Dec 18 22:00 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View news story
MacWorld, Jobs ... The Apple Saga Continues

bc818 is wrong. Jobs when he came back brought his operating system from Next. In 2000 and 2001 Apple made the transition away from OS 9 to OS X. Many people were skeptical. Then they switched to Intel and now are on a roll. It is the OS that is the driver. It allows the ipod, itunes, the mac, multitouch, and the iphone to all share the same OS. MSFT needs to start over and they do not want to go thru this pain. Apple can milk OS X for the next decade with or without Jobs. The team is now focused on what other products can they make. As all consumer electronics will need an OS in the future, Apple can either slowly pick off stuff that Sony makes or they can license the Apple OS for tvs, stereos, car stereos, home alarm systems, you name it.
Dec 17 17:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
It's No Big Deal That Apple Is Pulling Out of Macworld

This pull out allows Apple to control their media events from now on. I think after today's drop, Apple has been beaten down and expectations reflect:

1. Jobs is ill when CNBC's Goldman claims he is not. If he was, Apple would have to disclose it.
2. No new products at MacWorld and if they do they will be lame since Jobs has passed the presentation.
3. Mac Sales have stalled and the Apple story is over.
4. Ipods are in decline.
5. The iphone is about to be sold at Walmart for $99 or less.

All this is crap.

What we do know is that

1. Apple does not like releasing on a set date. It allows customers to put off purchases while they wait for new products. Apple noted this on the 4Q conference call in October.
2. Jobs is fine and the author points out that Jobs runs a great ship and the people below him are the geniuses.
3. Mac sales in October were 28% higher than 2007 and flat in November. That is still positive for the quarter.
4. Component prices are dropping and Apple is holding their prices. Margin improvement?
5. Apple is selling less shuffles and more touches. Total units down but average selling price up.
6. Iphones are getting people to leave Verizon as the Storm fizzled. Saw lots of them this past weekend in bars and restaurants.
7. Apple may invade the netbook area but if they do it will be a machine that does the mac experience. Netbooks usually run linux or Windows XP, not Vista. They suck for games watching movies etc so unless you just want to surf the web and not watch Youtube, go for it.
8. The iphone brings people to the mac. Spoke to a guy this weekend who broke down and switched from Verizon and now wants a macbook after using the phone for a week.

Just my 2 cents

Dec 17 17:24 pm |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Mac Demand May Be Slowing

Holding price constant while component prices drop and still selling about what you did last year seems quite good in the economy. Apple has refused to enter the race for the bottom like Dell, HP, Acer and others who are slashing prices in order to get a slight jump in sales while permanently eroding their margins.
Dec 16 14:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Case for Making Bigger Cars

Didn't Porsche make about $10 billiion last year. Isn't Porsche taking over VW. Seems all is well over there. I would argue the cars are better but they may because I have Porsches. My 14 year old 911 runs like new but my wife's 5 old GM minivan is falling apart. I guess that is build quality.
Dec 08 17:23 pm |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
Rumor Confirmed: Wal-Mart to Start Selling iPhones

If they sell a 4gb iPhone for $99.00 then it is game over for the LG, Motorola, Nokia, Palm and even Rimm's under $100 handsets. These companies will have to drop prices down to $50 or free and that may put Palm and Motorola out of the cell phone business.

Dec 08 08:28 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
2009 Will Be a Painful Year for Mobile Device Vendors

It may get really bad for the mobile phone vendors if Apple comes out with a 4gb iphone for $99. That would make most of the motorola, nokia, lg phones worth $0 to the consumer while allowing apple to keep production ramped for economies of scale. The old phone vendors including Rimm are getting taken to the woodshed by a computer company with more cash than all the competitors combined.

The fact that in a little over a year Apple has made such an impact in phones is due to the fact that making a product is not the issue it is giving it software that makes it easy to use that is the new wave. Apple has an operating system and thus puts it in the iphone, the touch, all the ipods, laptops, desktops, wireless routers, and the apple tv. What product category do you think they topple next. I wouldn't want to be tivo with apple looking for new product catergories.
Dec 07 19:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
RIM: Shares Hold Up Despite Warning; High Hopes for Bold, Storm

Apple is eating Rimm's lunch. Kind of funny that when Basille was asked on a conference call if he was worried about the iphone he replied nah, nah! Think he is worried now.
Dec 04 01:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Research in Motion's Miss Should Not Surprise

Right on Rimm wrong on Apple. Apple has a niche with high end consumers which buufers it more than Rimm. Rimm also has problems with the storm and the bold while Apple has worked out any kinks with their phone. The app store is the big differentiator which RImm and Nokia have no answer for
Dec 03 14:27 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Apple, RIM: An Historic Collapse in U.S. Corporate IT Spending

Article title should be "A historic" not "An historic"
Nov 29 18:33 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
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Jim Cramer's Picks -
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Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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